Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...
Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 13:37:18 -0500
Next Article (by Date): Re: [CANSLIM] BZH rolatzi
Previous Article (by Date): [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan "Tom Worley"
Next in Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... Ian
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
- ------=_NextPart_000_0024_01C1A413.13E3E1C0
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Walter,
I would have to disagree with part of your conclusion. While the housing =
industry did not prevent the start of a recession, it is likely that it =
significantly helped to make it a shallow recession, and will help end =
it early. There still seems to be a lot of juice left in the home =
builders group, and I was adding more to my three positions in my fund =
today. Adding to Consumer Sentiment, in addition to lower mortgage =
payments, is lower energy costs. That, plus the tax cuts that started =
1/1/02, means a little more money in everyone's paycheck or wallet.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: walter nusbaum=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 11:58 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...
Ian,
"Stock Market Cycles" was rated "F" in up markets and A+ in down =
markets with an annualized gain of 4.6% since 5/31/90(sic), according to =
Forbes(22 JAN 01); not exactly the kind of numbers that inspire =
confidence. At any rate, there is nothing in the theory or construction =
of TRIN that allows for speculation as to the degree of market change. =
It is a great market reversal indicator and that's all. According to =
Elder, the market can stay over bought/sold for some time and the time =
to take action is immediately after TRIN makes a reversal off its =
high/low reading and re-penetrates the overbought or oversold line.(The =
Equis link says to buy/sell upon reaching the line, which is a specific =
number. Elder's recommendation puts you in sync with the new trend. I =
don't know what TRIN was doing during the debacle of 2000, but I =
suspect(using the Equis standard) it gave buy signals loooong before =
their time).
The lines themselves should be revisited, and redrawn if necessary, =
every three months based upon the interaction of TRIN and the Index that =
is being used. The lines indicate areas of concern and specific numbers =
above or below the lines have little meaning. TRIN can not be used =
mechanically- the same readings mean different things under different =
market conditions(Bull/Bear). TRIN gives its best buy/sell signals when =
divergence from the Index being used is observed and when used in =
combination with the New High-New Low Index.=20
Having said all that, 1.5 is a doozy of a number and will probably be =
followed by a downturn. I know nothing, but have little confidence in a =
return of the Bull for many moons. The automobile industry with its =
attendant suppliers such as steel, glass, rubber, plastics, etc., has =
been trashed; housing has typically propelled the new Bull, but housing =
has already had its own run with little effect on the overall market. =
Consumer Confidence would seem to be a bright spot, but it probably is =
the result of lower mortgage payments due to massive refinancing and =
bargains picked up by consumers at the expense of the producers, the =
very folks that we look to for increased earnings. There's more, but =
this grows lengthy so I'll shut up. Thanks for your note.
Best wishes,
Walt
=20
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 12:32 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...
Here's a very interesting recent quote from Peter Eliades of Stock =
Market Cycles: "At the end of todays trading, we noticed that the lowest =
single day TRIN reading over the past 10 trading days was 1.143. That =
seemed unusual to us, so we asked the computer to look back over the =
past 61 years (since 1940) to find out how many other 10 day periods had =
transpired without one single day reading below 1.14. We were stunned at =
the answer! The answer is none."
The 10 day ARMS index (TRIN) got up to 1.5 again last week. It used =
to have huge historical significance in indicating that a major bottom =
was to be put in within 20 trading days. It has now happened 4 times in =
the past year alone.
I don't pretend to know what it means, but there certainly has been =
a considerable amount of panic over the last 2 weeks.
Ian
PS - Here is a quick overview of the ARMS index that someone asked =
for: http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/armsindex.html
- ------=_NextPart_000_0024_01C1A413.13E3E1C0
Content-Type: text/html;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2712.300" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Walter,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I would have to disagree with part of your =
conclusion.=20
While the housing industry did not prevent the start of a recession, it =
is=20
likely that it significantly helped to make it a shallow recession, and =
will=20
help end it early. There still seems to be a lot of juice left in the =
home=20
builders group, and I was adding more to my three positions in my fund =
today.=20
Adding to Consumer Sentiment, in addition to lower mortgage payments, is =
lower=20
energy costs. That, plus the tax cuts that started 1/1/02, means a =
little more=20
money in everyone's paycheck or wallet.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dwnusbaum@airmail.net =
href=3D"mailto:wnusbaum@airmail.net">walter=20
nusbaum</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, January 23, =
2002 11:58=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Panic =
attack=20
...</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>"Stock Market Cycles" was rated "F" in up markets =
and A+ in=20
down markets with an annualized gain of 4.6% since=20
5/31/90(sic), according to Forbes(22 JAN 01); not exactly =
the kind=20
of numbers that inspire confidence. At any rate, there is =
nothing in=20
the theory or construction of TRIN that allows for speculation as to =
the=20
degree of market change. It is a great market reversal =
indicator and=20
that's all. According to Elder, the market can stay over bought/sold =
for some=20
time and the time to take action is immediately after TRIN makes a =
reversal=20
off its high/low reading and re-penetrates the overbought =
or oversold=20
line.(The Equis link says to buy/sell upon reaching the line, which is =
a=20
specific number. Elder's recommendation puts you in sync with the new =
trend. I=20
don't know what TRIN was doing during the debacle of 2000, but I =
suspect(using=20
the Equis standard) it gave buy signals loooong before their=20
time).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>The lines themselves should be revisited, and =
redrawn=20
if necessary, every three months based upon the interaction of TRIN =
and the=20
Index that is being used. The lines indicate areas of concern=20
and specific numbers above or below the lines have little=20
meaning. TRIN can not be used mechanically- the same readings =
mean=20
different things under different market=20
conditions(Bull/Bear).</FONT> <FONT size=3D2>TRIN gives its best =
buy/sell=20
signals when divergence from the Index being used is observed and when =
used=20
in combination with the New High-New Low Index. =
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Having said all that, 1.5 is a doozy of a number=20
and will probably be followed by a downturn. I know nothing, =
but=20
have little confidence in a return of the Bull for many moons. The =
automobile=20
industry with its attendant suppliers such as steel, glass, rubber, =
plastics,=20
etc., has been trashed; housing has typically propelled the new Bull, =
but=20
housing has already had its own run with little effect on the =
overall=20
market. Consumer Confidence would seem to be a bright spot, but it =
probably is=20
the result of lower mortgage payments due to massive refinancing and =
bargains=20
picked up by consumers at the expense of the producers, the very folks =
that we=20
look to for increased earnings. There's more, but this grows =
lengthy so=20
I'll shut up. Thanks for your note.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Best wishes,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Walt</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2> </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, January 22, =
2002 12:32=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Panic =
attack=20
...</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Here's a very interesting recent quote from =
Peter Eliades=20
of Stock Market Cycles: "At the end of todays trading, we noticed =
that the=20
lowest single day TRIN reading over the past 10 trading days was =
1.143. That=20
seemed unusual to us, so we asked the computer to look back over the =
past 61=20
years (since 1940) to find out how many other 10 day periods had =
transpired=20
without one single day reading below 1.14. We were stunned at the =
answer!=20
The answer is none."</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>The 10 day ARMS index (TRIN) got up to 1.5 again =
last=20
week. It used to have huge historical significance in indicating =
that a=20
major bottom was to be put in within 20 trading days. It has now =
happened 4=20
times in the past year alone.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I don't pretend to know what it means, but there =
certainly=20
has been a considerable amount of panic over the last 2 =
weeks.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>PS - Here is a quick overview of the ARMS index =
that=20
someone asked for: <A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/armsindex.html">http://www.equis.c=
om/free/taaz/armsindex.html</A></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial =
size=3D2></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT></BODY></HTML>
- ------=_NextPart_000_0024_01C1A413.13E3E1C0--
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Next Article (by Date): Re: [CANSLIM] BZH rolatzi
Previous Article (by Date): [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan "Tom Worley"
Next in Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... Ian
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]