Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "walter nusbaum" <wnusbaum@airmail.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...
Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 11:43:04 -0600
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Hi Tom,
Nice to hear from you. We do agree that housing is one of the bright =
spots in the economy, but that was my point. Following previous =
recessions that were almost always caused by high interest rates, there =
will be no "pent up demand" to lead the economy out of this one. =
Housing prices continue to rise and with refinancing, many people pulled =
a ton of equity out of those new mortgages that included lower rates. I =
don't know what they did with the money, but they didn't spend it for =
Xmas. I'm not certain what the "housing cycle" is, but this one began =
nineteen months ago. Good luck!
Best wishes,
Walt
]
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 12:37 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...
Walter,
I would have to disagree with part of your conclusion. While the =
housing industry did not prevent the start of a recession, it is likely =
that it significantly helped to make it a shallow recession, and will =
help end it early. There still seems to be a lot of juice left in the =
home builders group, and I was adding more to my three positions in my =
fund today. Adding to Consumer Sentiment, in addition to lower mortgage =
payments, is lower energy costs. That, plus the tax cuts that started =
1/1/02, means a little more money in everyone's paycheck or wallet.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
(SNIP)
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<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Hi Tom,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Nice to hear from you. We do agree that housing is =
one of the=20
bright spots in the economy, but that was my point. Following previous=20
recessions that were almost always caused by high interest rates, there =
will be=20
no "pent up demand" to lead the economy out of this one. Housing =
prices=20
continue to rise and with refinancing, many people pulled a ton of =
equity out of=20
those new mortgages that included lower rates. I don't know what they =
did with=20
the money, but they didn't spend it for Xmas. I'm not certain what =
the=20
"housing cycle" is, but this one began nineteen months ago. Good=20
luck!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Best wishes,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Walt</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>]</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@netside.net href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">Tom =
Worley</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, January 23, =
2002 12:37=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Panic =
attack=20
...</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Walter,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I would have to disagree with part of your =
conclusion.=20
While the housing industry did not prevent the start of a recession, =
it is=20
likely that it significantly helped to make it a shallow recession, =
and will=20
help end it early. There still seems to be a lot of juice left in the =
home=20
builders group, and I was adding more to my three positions in my fund =
today.=20
Adding to Consumer Sentiment, in addition to lower mortgage payments, =
is lower=20
energy costs. That, plus the tax cuts that started 1/1/02, means a =
little more=20
money in everyone's paycheck or wallet.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>(SNIP)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT =
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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