Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...
Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 18:53:01 -0500
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Hi Walter,
Some of that cash pulled out of home equity is undoubtedly part of the =
$2.2 trillion sitting in money markets.
Altho we saw 11 rate cuts, interest rates were not that high by many =
historic standards. Nor, in my opinion, was the recession a result of =
interest rates, at any level. Mr. G touched on some of this in his =
speech today, and mentions how corporate capital spending, especially on =
technology, got ahead of itself in 2000.
Not too surprising, considering how long the economy was growing. Also =
contributing was a slowdown, but not a stoppage, in consumer spending. =
That is one of the reasons (no build up of "pent up demand") Mr. G =
suggests we will not be seeing inflation later this year.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: walter nusbaum=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, January 24, 2002 12:43 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...
Hi Tom,
Nice to hear from you. We do agree that housing is one of the bright =
spots in the economy, but that was my point. Following previous =
recessions that were almost always caused by high interest rates, there =
will be no "pent up demand" to lead the economy out of this one. =
Housing prices continue to rise and with refinancing, many people pulled =
a ton of equity out of those new mortgages that included lower rates. I =
don't know what they did with the money, but they didn't spend it for =
Xmas. I'm not certain what the "housing cycle" is, but this one began =
nineteen months ago. Good luck!
Best wishes,
Walt
]
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 12:37 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...
Walter,
I would have to disagree with part of your conclusion. While the =
housing industry did not prevent the start of a recession, it is likely =
that it significantly helped to make it a shallow recession, and will =
help end it early. There still seems to be a lot of juice left in the =
home builders group, and I was adding more to my three positions in my =
fund today. Adding to Consumer Sentiment, in addition to lower mortgage =
payments, is lower energy costs. That, plus the tax cuts that started =
1/1/02, means a little more money in everyone's paycheck or wallet.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
(SNIP)
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Hi Walter,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Some of that cash pulled out of home equity is =
undoubtedly=20
part of the $2.2 trillion sitting in money markets.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Altho we saw 11 rate cuts, interest rates were =
not that=20
high by many historic standards. Nor, in my opinion, was the recession a =
result=20
of interest rates, at any level. Mr. G touched on some of this in his =
speech=20
today, and mentions how corporate capital spending, especially on =
technology,=20
got ahead of itself in 2000.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Not too surprising, considering how long the =
economy was=20
growing. Also contributing was a slowdown, but not a stoppage, in =
consumer=20
spending. That is one of the reasons (no build up of "pent up demand") =
Mr. G=20
suggests we will not be seeing inflation later this year.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dwnusbaum@airmail.net =
href=3D"mailto:wnusbaum@airmail.net">walter=20
nusbaum</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 24, =
2002 12:43=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Panic =
attack=20
...</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Hi Tom,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Nice to hear from you. We do agree that housing is =
one of=20
the bright spots in the economy, but that was my point. Following =
previous=20
recessions that were almost always caused by high interest rates, =
there will=20
be no "pent up demand" to lead the economy out of this one. =
Housing=20
prices continue to rise and with refinancing, many people pulled a ton =
of=20
equity out of those new mortgages that included lower rates. I don't =
know what=20
they did with the money, but they didn't spend it for Xmas. I'm not=20
certain what the "housing cycle" is, but this one began nineteen =
months=20
ago. Good luck!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Best wishes,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Walt</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>]</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@netside.net =
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, January 23, =
2002 12:37=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Panic =
attack=20
...</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Walter,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I would have to disagree with part of your =
conclusion.=20
While the housing industry did not prevent the start of a recession, =
it is=20
likely that it significantly helped to make it a shallow recession, =
and will=20
help end it early. There still seems to be a lot of juice left in =
the home=20
builders group, and I was adding more to my three positions in my =
fund=20
today. Adding to Consumer Sentiment, in addition to lower mortgage =
payments,=20
is lower energy costs. That, plus the tax cuts that started 1/1/02, =
means a=20
little more money in everyone's paycheck or wallet.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>(SNIP)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT=20
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY=
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