Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan's speech
Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 13:31:41 -0500
Previous Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] Accounting Shenanigans "Tom Worley"
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00A6_01C1A4DB.75543310 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable For those members trying to get some feel for "M" for the next year, I = suggest you read the entire speech. It is quite interesting, and can be = found at: http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2002/20020124/default.h= tm For my part, I got the following notes: His 1/11/02 speech was unintentionally worded too pessimistically, he = intended it to explain that the economy had bottomed, and was showing = signs of recovery (in other words, forget about another rate cut) Because consumer spending remained unusually strong last year, he does = not expect sharp acceleration this year (in other words, Feds will be = slow to raise rates). Some other comments suggesting that he does not = see inflationary pressures at this time. New unemployment claims have peaked. Inventory reductions have been = good, and should soon result in increased industrial production, leading = to new hiring. Productivity growth has been good, and combined with sharp workforce = reductions, permitted most corporations to maintain financial health. Use of technology to improve productivity, and control any growth in = unit cost of production, has been only 50% implemented. And new = technology will further help in the future (he was very strong on = technology). Homebuilding, and sales of existing homes, and refinancing, continues to = look strong, and he expects this to continue. An economic stimulus now does not appear to be needed, even tho the Prez = and Congress wants to do something. The tax cut was needed and justified, and likely softened the impact of = the recession. He is not concerned over small budget deficits for the next several = years. He spent quite a bit of time discussing why past budget surpluses = were as large as they were, primary implication was from capital gains = taxes on investments, bonuses, stock option exercises, etc. In context, = sounds like he was saying that if we get this economy back on its feet = quickly, revenues to the govt will increase over plan from similar = taxes, and the deficit disappear. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_000_00A6_01C1A4DB.75543310 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2712.300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>For those members trying to get some feel for = "M" for the=20 next year, I suggest you read the entire speech. It is quite = interesting, and=20 can be found at:</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><A=20 href=3D"http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2002/20020124/d= efault.htm">http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2002/200201= 24/default.htm</A></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>For my part, I got the following = notes:</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>His 1/11/02 speech was unintentionally worded = too=20 pessimistically, he intended it to explain that the economy had = bottomed, and=20 was showing signs of recovery (in other words, forget about another rate = cut)</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Because consumer spending remained unusually = strong last=20 year, he does not expect sharp acceleration this year (in other words, = Feds will=20 be slow to raise rates). Some other comments suggesting that he does not = see=20 inflationary pressures at this time.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New unemployment claims have peaked. Inventory = reductions=20 have been good, and should soon result in increased industrial = production,=20 leading to new hiring.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Productivity growth has been good, and combined = with sharp=20 workforce reductions, permitted most corporations to maintain financial=20 health.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Use of technology to improve productivity, and = control any=20 growth in unit cost of production, has been only 50% implemented. And = new=20 technology will further help in the future (he was very strong on=20 technology).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Homebuilding, and sales of existing homes, and=20 refinancing, continues to look strong, and he expects this to=20 continue.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>An economic stimulus now does not appear to be = needed,=20 even tho the Prez and Congress wants to do something.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The tax cut was needed and justified, and likely = softened=20 the impact of the recession.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>He is not concerned over small budget deficits = for the=20 next several years. He spent quite a bit of time discussing why past = budget=20 surpluses were as large as they were, primary implication was from = capital gains=20 taxes on investments, bonuses, stock option exercises, etc. In context, = sounds=20 like he was saying that if we get this economy back on its feet quickly, = revenues to the govt will increase over plan from similar taxes, and the = deficit=20 disappear.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20 TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_00A6_01C1A4DB.75543310-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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