Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. JEC--Faulty handle?
Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 21:29:18 -0500
Previous Article (by Author): RE: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. JEC--Faulty handle? "Mike Gibbons"
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0014_01C1A5E7.58DB9AE0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0015_01C1A5E7.58DB9AE0" - ------=_NextPart_001_0015_01C1A5E7.58DB9AE0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Mike, Dan, Mike: nice diagram, what is the source of the unpublished research? Dan: WON says in HTMMIS that the time duration, contrary to the diagram = below, is 7 to 65 weeks. On depth, WON says "The usual percentage = correction from the absolute peak to the low point of the price pattern = varies from 12 or 15% to 33%". (the italics are O'Neil's). He then goes = on to say "A very few volatile leaders can plunge as much as 40 or 50% = in a bull market. Base patterns correcting over this amount while in = bull markets have a higher failure rate if they attempt to make new = price highs and resume their advance." (bold emphasis mine) This is from = Chapter 14, How to Read Charts, page 152 First edition. He also says "Coming out of a major bear market, some patterns that have = decreased 50 to 60% or more can succeed. The percent decline is, in = these cases, a function of the severity of the bear market and the = extent of the stock's prior price runup." Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Mike Gibbons=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 8:46 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. JEC--Faulty handle? > Is a cup's depth supposed to be no deeper than 35%?? Actually, 33% is the Max. From some recent (as yet) unpublished research.... Aloha, Mike Gibbons Proactive Technologies, LLC http://www.proactech.com -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dan Forant Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 3:06 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. JEC--Faulty handle? Is a cup's depth supposed to be no deeper than 35%?? DanF ----- Original Message ----- From: "Mike Gibbons" <mikegibbons@proactech.com> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 1:25 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. JEC--Faulty handle? > I was a little critical of DFXI's handle when Dave brought it to our > attention on 1/8, but appropriately contrite when it surged the = following > day. > > For an example of a more classic cwh chart, have a look at JBHT. = This stock > has shown 4 stages now of advancing on high volume and then pulling = back on > reducing volume before surging again. It may be forming another cup > yesterday and today. (yesterday's reversal was a bit disconcerting = but there > is a subtlety in this kind of a reversal that diminishes its = significance: > If you think of yesterday and the breakout day before as one long = day, i.e. > put the two days atop each other, then the stock closed in the top = third of > its (2-day)range on massive volume. That is positive. And all of > yesterday's volume was above the prior high. That was also = positive. So > although technically yesterday was a reversal, it was not a sell = signal. > > We had this on our "low" handle list (based on Weinstein) when it = formed > it's first cup in November and it reappeared on our lists at each subsequent > cup formation. The fundamentals were never sufficiently strong to = make it a > CANSLIM stock but as an example of a cup and handle, I think it's a = good > one. I'm pleased to be holding it for a nice gain. > > Aloha, > > Mike Gibbons > > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of = Spencer48@aol.com > Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 7:56 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. JEC--Faulty handle? > > > Katherine: > > To me DFXI does not look even like a nice Cup (much less a cup = with a > zig/zag handle. However, I realize analyzing is all in perspective = (like > beauty, it's in the eye of the beholder, I guess). Anyway, there = was an on > point (at least I think so) article today in IBD. You might find it useful. > It concerns wide and loose bases: > > "Investor's Corner > Friday, January 25, 2002 > > Base Can Be Tight And Loose > BY MONIKA TJIA > > INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY > > > Stocks form a variety of bases. Whether the base is a = cup-with-handle or a > double-bottom, in most cases you'll find at least a week or two of = wild > price > action. > > That's OK. After all, investors' emotions fuel stock movements. Fear drives > prices sharply down, and greed yanks them back up. > > But if you see this erratic buying and selling throughout the base, = watch > out. An excessive number of dizzying price swings indicates = institutions are > moving in and out with ease. For every eager buyer, count an anxious seller. > > An occasional shakeout is fine. But you want a base to also have at = least > several weeks of tight, quiet price action. This indicates solid = support > throughout a base. > > Tight action means small price gaps from a stock's weekly high to = its weekly > low. Often you'll see a stock close the week virtually unchanged for several > weeks in a row. This implies a lack of speculators and a load of = steady > long-term shareholders. > > >From its October 1998 low to its April 16, 1999, high, Techne = (TECH) ran up > 150%. At its April peak (see point 1 in accompanying image), the > fast-growing > maker of cytokine test kits used to find new drugs formed a new = base, > correcting 24% from its high. > > As Techne formed its cup-with-handle base, it moved up and down in = tiny > steps. At the end of each week in May, the stock finished very close = to its > prior weekly close (point 2). > > In the week ended May 21, the stock swung as much as 12%. But it had = a > positive reversal. For the week, it finished up 0.13 point vs. the = prior > week > (point 3). This price action is exactly what you want to see, = because > institutions raced in to support the stock. > > As Techne etched the right side of its base, the weekly spreads grew wider. > But weeks of quiet action far outnumbered its weeks of wild price = swings. > > On Aug. 25, 1999, Techne broke out of its 19-week base on triple = average > trade (point 4). > > After breaking out, Techne moved sideways for a few weeks. It held = above its > 50-day moving average. When the market finally took off in late = October, so > did Techne. > > >From its breakout to its July 2000 peak, Techne gained 416%. It = then began > to > carve a new three-month base. But in terms of complexion, this one = was the > exact opposite of its previous base. > > Instead of making slight price moves, it made extreme ones virtually = every > week. The price swings ranged as much as 26%. Techne failed to = finish its > base. It's now 56% off its all-time high." > > jans > > > > In a message dated 1/25/2002 9:30:10 AM Eastern Standard Time, > kmalm@earthlink.net writes: > > << Hi stockoper8or, > > When I wrote my note mid-day, DFXI had a tail. Looks like it ended midrange > after dropping a bit more after my note. Interesting action. I = suspect in a > stronger market it would have been up and out of here by now. I = wonder if > the > zig zag handle that started it all was a sign of market iffiness or = a sign > of > stock iffiness. Just one for the "I wonder" pile of thoughts! > >> > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.=20 - ------=_NextPart_001_0015_01C1A5E7.58DB9AE0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD><TITLE></TITLE> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2712.300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Mike, Dan,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Mike: nice diagram, what is the source of the = unpublished=20 research?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Dan: WON says in HTMMIS that the time duration, = contrary=20 to the diagram below, is 7 to 65 weeks. On depth, WON says "The = <EM>usual</EM>=20 percentage correction from the absolute peak to the low point of the = price=20 pattern varies from 12 or 15% to 33%". (the italics are O'Neil's). He = then goes=20 on to say "A very few volatile leaders can plunge as much as 40 or = 50% in a=20 <STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000>bull market</FONT></STRONG>. Base patterns = correcting <STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000>over this = amount</FONT></STRONG> while in=20 bull markets have a higher failure rate if they attempt to make new = price highs=20 and resume their advance." (bold emphasis mine) This is from Chapter 14, = How to=20 Read Charts, page 152 First edition.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>He also says "Coming out of a major bear market, = some=20 patterns that have decreased 50 to 60% or more can succeed. The percent = decline=20 is, in these cases, a function of the severity of the bear market and = the extent=20 of the stock's prior price runup."</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20 TexWorley</DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dmikegibbons@proactech.com=20 href=3D"mailto:mikegibbons@proactech.com">Mike Gibbons</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January 25, 2002 = 8:46=20 PM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. = JEC--Faulty handle?</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <P><FONT size=3D2>> Is a cup's depth supposed to be no deeper than=20 35%??</FONT></P> <P><FONT size=3D2><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff>Actually, 33% is = the=20 Max.<BR><BR>From some recent (as yet) unpublished=20 research....<BR></FONT></P></FONT> <P><FONT size=3D2><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:001301c1a611$41aa76f0$1ba08fd0@D73PS211" align=3Dbaseline=20 border=3D0><BR><BR><BR>Aloha,<BR><BR>Mike Gibbons<BR>Proactive = Technologies,=20 LLC<BR><A href=3D"http://www.proactech.com"=20 target=3D_blank>http://www.proactech.com</A><BR><BR><BR>-----Original=20 Message-----<BR>From: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com</A><BR>[<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">mailto:owner-canslim@lis= ts.xmission.com</A>]On=20 Behalf Of Dan Forant<BR>Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 3:06 PM<BR>To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. = JEC--Faulty=20 handle?<BR><BR><BR>Is a cup's depth supposed to be no deeper than=20 35%??<BR><BR>DanF<BR><BR>----- Original Message -----<BR>From: "Mike = Gibbons"=20 <mikegibbons@proactech.com><BR>To:=20 <canslim@lists.xmission.com><BR>Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 = 1:25=20 PM<BR>Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. JEC--Faulty = handle?<BR><BR><BR>> I=20 was a little critical of DFXI's handle when Dave brought it to = our<BR>>=20 attention on 1/8, but appropriately contrite when it surged the=20 following<BR>> day.<BR>><BR>> For an example of a more = classic cwh=20 chart, have a look at JBHT. This<BR>stock<BR>> has shown 4 stages = now of=20 advancing on high volume and then pulling back<BR>on<BR>> reducing = volume=20 before surging again. It may be forming another cup<BR>> yesterday = and=20 today. (yesterday's reversal was a bit disconcerting = but<BR>there<BR>> is a=20 subtlety in this kind of a reversal that diminishes its = significance:<BR>>=20 If you think of yesterday and the breakout day before as one long=20 day,<BR>i.e.<BR>> put the two days atop each other, then the stock = closed=20 in the top third<BR>of<BR>> its (2-day)range on massive = volume. That=20 is positive. And all of<BR>> yesterday's volume was above the = prior=20 high. That was also positive. So<BR>> although = technically=20 yesterday was a reversal, it was not a sell signal.<BR>><BR>> We = had=20 this on our "low" handle list (based on Weinstein) when it = formed<BR>> it's=20 first cup in November and it reappeared on our lists at=20 each<BR>subsequent<BR>> cup formation. The fundamentals were never=20 sufficiently strong to make it<BR>a<BR>> CANSLIM stock but as an = example of=20 a cup and handle, I think it's a good<BR>> one. I'm pleased to be = holding=20 it for a nice gain.<BR>><BR>> Aloha,<BR>><BR>> Mike=20 Gibbons<BR>><BR>><BR>> -----Original Message-----<BR>> = From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>> [<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">mailto:owner-canslim@lis= ts.xmission.com</A>]On=20 Behalf Of Spencer48@aol.com<BR>> Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 = 7:56=20 AM<BR>> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>> Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM] DFXI=20 vs. JEC--Faulty handle?<BR>><BR>><BR>>=20 Katherine:<BR>><BR>> To me DFXI = does not=20 look even like a nice Cup (much less a cup with a<BR>> zig/zag=20 handle. However, I realize analyzing is all in perspective = (like<BR>>=20 beauty, it's in the eye of the beholder, I guess). Anyway, there = was=20 an<BR>on<BR>> point (at least I think so) article today in = IBD. You=20 might find it<BR>useful.<BR>> It concerns wide and loose=20 bases:<BR>><BR>> "Investor's Corner<BR>> Friday, January 25,=20 2002<BR>><BR>> Base Can Be Tight And Loose<BR>> BY MONIKA=20 TJIA<BR>><BR>> INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY<BR>><BR>><BR>> = Stocks=20 form a variety of bases. Whether the base is a cup-with-handle or = a<BR>>=20 double-bottom, in most cases you'll find at least a week or two of=20 wild<BR>> price<BR>> action.<BR>><BR>> That's OK. After = all,=20 investors' emotions fuel stock movements. Fear<BR>drives<BR>> = prices=20 sharply down, and greed yanks them back up.<BR>><BR>> But if you = see=20 this erratic buying and selling throughout the base, watch<BR>> = out. An=20 excessive number of dizzying price swings indicates=20 institutions<BR>are<BR>> moving in and out with ease. For every = eager=20 buyer, count an anxious<BR>seller.<BR>><BR>> An occasional = shakeout is=20 fine. But you want a base to also have at least<BR>> several weeks = of=20 tight, quiet price action. This indicates solid support<BR>> = throughout a=20 base.<BR>><BR>> Tight action means small price gaps from a = stock's=20 weekly high to its<BR>weekly<BR>> low. Often you'll see a stock = close the=20 week virtually unchanged for<BR>several<BR>> weeks in a row. This = implies a=20 lack of speculators and a load of steady<BR>> long-term=20 shareholders.<BR>><BR>> >From its October 1998 low to its = April 16,=20 1999, high, Techne (TECH) ran<BR>up<BR>> 150%. At its April peak = (see point=20 1 in accompanying image), the<BR>> fast-growing<BR>> maker of = cytokine=20 test kits used to find new drugs formed a new base,<BR>> correcting = 24%=20 from its high.<BR>><BR>> As Techne formed its cup-with-handle = base, it=20 moved up and down in tiny<BR>> steps. At the end of each week in = May, the=20 stock finished very close to<BR>its<BR>> prior weekly close (point=20 2).<BR>><BR>> In the week ended May 21, the stock swung as much = as 12%.=20 But it had a<BR>> positive reversal. For the week, it finished up = 0.13=20 point vs. the prior<BR>> week<BR>> (point 3). This price action = is=20 exactly what you want to see, because<BR>> institutions raced in to = support=20 the stock.<BR>><BR>> As Techne etched the right side of its = base, the=20 weekly spreads grew<BR>wider.<BR>> But weeks of quiet action far=20 outnumbered its weeks of wild price swings.<BR>><BR>> On Aug. = 25, 1999,=20 Techne broke out of its 19-week base on triple average<BR>> trade = (point=20 4).<BR>><BR>> After breaking out, Techne moved sideways for a = few weeks.=20 It held above<BR>its<BR>> 50-day moving average. When the market = finally=20 took off in late October,<BR>so<BR>> did Techne.<BR>><BR>> = >From=20 its breakout to its July 2000 peak, Techne gained 416%. It=20 then<BR>began<BR>> to<BR>> carve a new three-month base. But in = terms of=20 complexion, this one was the<BR>> exact opposite of its previous=20 base.<BR>><BR>> Instead of making slight price moves, it made = extreme=20 ones virtually every<BR>> week. The price swings ranged as much as = 26%.=20 Techne failed to finish its<BR>> base. It's now 56% off its = all-time=20 high."<BR>><BR>> jans<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>> In a = message dated=20 1/25/2002 9:30:10 AM Eastern Standard Time,<BR>> = kmalm@earthlink.net=20 writes:<BR>><BR>> << Hi = stockoper8or,<BR>><BR>> When I=20 wrote my note mid-day, DFXI had a tail. Looks like it=20 ended<BR>midrange<BR>> after dropping a bit more after my note. = Interesting=20 action. I suspect in<BR>a<BR>> stronger market it would have been = up and=20 out of here by now. I wonder if<BR>> the<BR>> zig zag handle = that=20 started it all was a sign of market iffiness or a sign<BR>> = of<BR>>=20 stock iffiness. Just one for the "I wonder" pile of=20 thoughts!<BR>> >><BR>><BR>> -<BR>> -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>> -In the = email=20 body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> -"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email.<BR>><BR>><BR>> -<BR>> -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>> -In the = email=20 body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> -"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email.<BR>><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email = body,=20 write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not = use=20 quotes in your email.</FONT> </P></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_0015_01C1A5E7.58DB9AE0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_0014_01C1A5E7.58DB9AE0 Content-Type: image/gif; name="cwh_WON.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <001301c1a611$41aa76f0$1ba08fd0@D73PS211> R0lGODlhnwF8AeYAAP////f39/bw+fDw8O/v7+zg8+Dg4N/f3+fX79fX1+PQ7NLS0tDQ0M/Pz9nA 5sTExMDAwL+/v9Cw38+v37a2trS0tLCwsK+vr8ag2cWf2aurq6CgoJmZ/5+fn7yQ05CQkLOAzLJ/ zI+Pj6lwxqlvxYCAgH9/f6Bgv3BwcG9vb2hoaJZQuZVPuWBgYF9fX4xAs1hYWFRUVFBQUE9PT4Mw rH0nqUBAQD8/Pzw8PHkgpjMzmTAwjy0thjAwMC8vL3AQnycnJyIiZyAgYGAGmSEhIR0dVmYAmSAg IB8fHxoaTRISNRAQMBAQEA8PDwoKHQgIFwAAgAcHBwAAaAAAYAYGEwAAQAAAOAMDCgAAMAAAKAEB AQAACAAAAP4BAgAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACH5 BAUUAF0ALAAAAACfAXwBAAf/gACCg4SFhoeIiYqLjI2Oj5CRkpOUlZaXmJmam5ydnp+goaKjpKWm p6ipqqusra6vsLGys7S1tre4uaxcur2+v8DBs7zCxcbHyMmOxMoACCEhCIXPg9CG0YrUziGLz9im 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