Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Mike Gibbons" <mikegibbons@proactech.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. JEC--Faulty handle?
Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 16:52:31 -1000
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Source: The writings of WON, IBD (Investors Corner) and Investors.com. These
sources are sometimes (often?) at variance, but the best consensus we could
arrive at is shown in the diagram.
As for the depth, I think it's fair to say that 9/11 was an extraordinary
shock to the market which pushed many stocks lower than they would have been
if 9/11 had not happened, so some leeway is appropriate.
Aloha,
Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 4:29 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. JEC--Faulty handle?
Mike, Dan,
Mike: nice diagram, what is the source of the unpublished research?
Dan: WON says in HTMMIS that the time duration, contrary to the diagram
below, is 7 to 65 weeks. On depth, WON says "The usual percentage correction
from the absolute peak to the low point of the price pattern varies from 12
or 15% to 33%". (the italics are O'Neil's). He then goes on to say "A very
few volatile leaders can plunge as much as 40 or 50% in a bull market. Base
patterns correcting over this amount while in bull markets have a higher
failure rate if they attempt to make new price highs and resume their
advance." (bold emphasis mine) This is from Chapter 14, How to Read Charts,
page 152 First edition.
He also says "Coming out of a major bear market, some patterns that have
decreased 50 to 60% or more can succeed. The percent decline is, in these
cases, a function of the severity of the bear market and the extent of the
stock's prior price runup."
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: Mike Gibbons
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 8:46 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. JEC--Faulty handle?
> Is a cup's depth supposed to be no deeper than 35%??
Actually, 33% is the Max.
From some recent (as yet) unpublished research....
Aloha,
Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dan Forant
Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 3:06 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. JEC--Faulty handle?
Is a cup's depth supposed to be no deeper than 35%??
DanF
----- Original Message -----
From: "Mike Gibbons" <mikegibbons@proactech.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 1:25 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. JEC--Faulty handle?
> I was a little critical of DFXI's handle when Dave brought it to our
> attention on 1/8, but appropriately contrite when it surged the
following
> day.
>
> For an example of a more classic cwh chart, have a look at JBHT. This
stock
> has shown 4 stages now of advancing on high volume and then pulling
back
on
> reducing volume before surging again. It may be forming another cup
> yesterday and today. (yesterday's reversal was a bit disconcerting but
there
> is a subtlety in this kind of a reversal that diminishes its
significance:
> If you think of yesterday and the breakout day before as one long day,
i.e.
> put the two days atop each other, then the stock closed in the top
third
of
> its (2-day)range on massive volume. That is positive. And all of
> yesterday's volume was above the prior high. That was also positive.
So
> although technically yesterday was a reversal, it was not a sell
signal.
>
> We had this on our "low" handle list (based on Weinstein) when it
formed
> it's first cup in November and it reappeared on our lists at each
subsequent
> cup formation. The fundamentals were never sufficiently strong to make
it
a
> CANSLIM stock but as an example of a cup and handle, I think it's a
good
> one. I'm pleased to be holding it for a nice gain.
>
> Aloha,
>
> Mike Gibbons
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of
Spencer48@aol.com
> Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 7:56 AM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. JEC--Faulty handle?
>
>
> Katherine:
>
> To me DFXI does not look even like a nice Cup (much less a cup
with a
> zig/zag handle. However, I realize analyzing is all in perspective
(like
> beauty, it's in the eye of the beholder, I guess). Anyway, there was
an
on
> point (at least I think so) article today in IBD. You might find it
useful.
> It concerns wide and loose bases:
>
> "Investor's Corner
> Friday, January 25, 2002
>
> Base Can Be Tight And Loose
> BY MONIKA TJIA
>
> INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
>
>
> Stocks form a variety of bases. Whether the base is a cup-with-handle
or a
> double-bottom, in most cases you'll find at least a week or two of
wild
> price
> action.
>
> That's OK. After all, investors' emotions fuel stock movements. Fear
drives
> prices sharply down, and greed yanks them back up.
>
> But if you see this erratic buying and selling throughout the base,
watch
> out. An excessive number of dizzying price swings indicates
institutions
are
> moving in and out with ease. For every eager buyer, count an anxious
seller.
>
> An occasional shakeout is fine. But you want a base to also have at
least
> several weeks of tight, quiet price action. This indicates solid
support
> throughout a base.
>
> Tight action means small price gaps from a stock's weekly high to its
weekly
> low. Often you'll see a stock close the week virtually unchanged for
several
> weeks in a row. This implies a lack of speculators and a load of
steady
> long-term shareholders.
>
> >From its October 1998 low to its April 16, 1999, high, Techne (TECH)
ran
up
> 150%. At its April peak (see point 1 in accompanying image), the
> fast-growing
> maker of cytokine test kits used to find new drugs formed a new base,
> correcting 24% from its high.
>
> As Techne formed its cup-with-handle base, it moved up and down in
tiny
> steps. At the end of each week in May, the stock finished very close
to
its
> prior weekly close (point 2).
>
> In the week ended May 21, the stock swung as much as 12%. But it had a
> positive reversal. For the week, it finished up 0.13 point vs. the
prior
> week
> (point 3). This price action is exactly what you want to see, because
> institutions raced in to support the stock.
>
> As Techne etched the right side of its base, the weekly spreads grew
wider.
> But weeks of quiet action far outnumbered its weeks of wild price
swings.
>
> On Aug. 25, 1999, Techne broke out of its 19-week base on triple
average
> trade (point 4).
>
> After breaking out, Techne moved sideways for a few weeks. It held
above
its
> 50-day moving average. When the market finally took off in late
October,
so
> did Techne.
>
> >From its breakout to its July 2000 peak, Techne gained 416%. It then
began
> to
> carve a new three-month base. But in terms of complexion, this one was
the
> exact opposite of its previous base.
>
> Instead of making slight price moves, it made extreme ones virtually
every
> week. The price swings ranged as much as 26%. Techne failed to finish
its
> base. It's now 56% off its all-time high."
>
> jans
>
>
>
> In a message dated 1/25/2002 9:30:10 AM Eastern Standard Time,
> kmalm@earthlink.net writes:
>
> << Hi stockoper8or,
>
> When I wrote my note mid-day, DFXI had a tail. Looks like it ended
midrange
> after dropping a bit more after my note. Interesting action. I suspect
in
a
> stronger market it would have been up and out of here by now. I wonder
if
> the
> zig zag handle that started it all was a sign of market iffiness or a
sign
> of
> stock iffiness. Just one for the "I wonder" pile of thoughts!
> >>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
>
-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D580594602-26012002>Source: The writings of WON, IBD (Investors =
Corner) and=20
Investors.com. These sources are sometimes (often?) at variance, but the =
best=20
consensus we could arrive at is shown in the =
diagram.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D580594602-26012002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D580594602-26012002>As for=20
the depth, I think it's fair to say that 9/11 was an extraordinary shock =
to the=20
market which pushed many stocks lower than they would have been if 9/11 =
had not=20
happened, so some leeway is appropriate.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Aloha,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Mike Gibbons<BR>Proactive Technologies, =
LLC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
href=3D"http://www.proactech.com/">http://www.proactech.com</A></FONT></D=
IV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV align=3Dleft class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Tom=20
Worley<BR><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January 25, 2002 4:29 PM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs.=20
JEC--Faulty handle?<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Mike, Dan,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Mike: nice diagram, what is the source of the=20
unpublished research?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Dan: WON says in HTMMIS that the time =
duration, contrary=20
to the diagram below, is 7 to 65 weeks. On depth, WON says "The =
<EM>usual</EM>=20
percentage correction from the absolute peak to the low point of the =
price=20
pattern varies from 12 or 15% to 33%". (the italics are O'Neil's). He =
then=20
goes on to say "A very few volatile leaders can plunge as much as =
40 or=20
50% in a <STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000>bull market</FONT></STRONG>. =
Base=20
patterns correcting <STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000>over this=20
amount</FONT></STRONG> while in bull markets have a higher failure =
rate if=20
they attempt to make new price highs and resume their advance." (bold =
emphasis=20
mine) This is from Chapter 14, How to Read Charts, page 152 First=20
edition.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>He also says "Coming out of a major bear =
market, some=20
patterns that have decreased 50 to 60% or more can succeed. The =
percent=20
decline is, in these cases, a function of the severity of the bear =
market and=20
the extent of the stock's prior price runup."</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:mikegibbons@proactech.com"=20
title=3Dmikegibbons@proactech.com>Mike Gibbons</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January 25, =
2002 8:46=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] DFXI =
vs.=20
JEC--Faulty handle?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<P><FONT size=3D2>> Is a cup's depth supposed to be no deeper =
than=20
35%??</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial>Actually, 33% =
is the=20
Max.<BR><BR>From some recent (as yet) unpublished=20
research....<BR></FONT></P></FONT>
<P><FONT size=3D2><IMG align=3Dbaseline alt=3D"" border=3D0 =
hspace=3D0=20
src=3D"cid:580594602@26012002-2610"><BR><BR><BR>Aloha,<BR><BR>Mike=20
Gibbons<BR>Proactive Technologies, LLC<BR><A =
href=3D"http://www.proactech.com"=20
=
target=3D_blank>http://www.proactech.com</A><BR><BR><BR>-----Original=20
Message-----<BR>From: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis=
sion.com</A><BR>[<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">mailto:owner-canslim@lis=
ts.xmission.com</A>]On=20
Behalf Of Dan Forant<BR>Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 3:06 =
PM<BR>To:=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. =
JEC--Faulty=20
handle?<BR><BR><BR>Is a cup's depth supposed to be no deeper than=20
35%??<BR><BR>DanF<BR><BR>----- Original Message -----<BR>From: "Mike =
Gibbons" <mikegibbons@proactech.com><BR>To:=20
<canslim@lists.xmission.com><BR>Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 =
1:25=20
PM<BR>Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DFXI vs. JEC--Faulty =
handle?<BR><BR><BR>> I=20
was a little critical of DFXI's handle when Dave brought it to =
our<BR>>=20
attention on 1/8, but appropriately contrite when it surged the=20
following<BR>> day.<BR>><BR>> For an example of a more =
classic cwh=20
chart, have a look at JBHT. This<BR>stock<BR>> has shown 4 stages =
now of=20
advancing on high volume and then pulling back<BR>on<BR>> =
reducing volume=20
before surging again. It may be forming another cup<BR>> =
yesterday and=20
today. (yesterday's reversal was a bit disconcerting =
but<BR>there<BR>> is=20
a subtlety in this kind of a reversal that diminishes its=20
significance:<BR>> If you think of yesterday and the breakout day =
before=20
as one long day,<BR>i.e.<BR>> put the two days atop each other, =
then the=20
stock closed in the top third<BR>of<BR>> its (2-day)range on =
massive=20
volume. That is positive. And all of<BR>> yesterday's =
volume=20
was above the prior high. That was also positive. =
So<BR>>=20
although technically yesterday was a reversal, it was not a sell=20
signal.<BR>><BR>> We had this on our "low" handle list (based =
on=20
Weinstein) when it formed<BR>> it's first cup in November and it=20
reappeared on our lists at each<BR>subsequent<BR>> cup formation. =
The=20
fundamentals were never sufficiently strong to make it<BR>a<BR>> =
CANSLIM=20
stock but as an example of a cup and handle, I think it's a =
good<BR>>=20
one. I'm pleased to be holding it for a nice gain.<BR>><BR>>=20
Aloha,<BR>><BR>> Mike Gibbons<BR>><BR>><BR>> =
- -----Original=20
Message-----<BR>> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>> =
[<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">mailto:owner-canslim@lis=
ts.xmission.com</A>]On=20
Behalf Of Spencer48@aol.com<BR>> Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 =
7:56=20
AM<BR>> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>> Subject: Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
DFXI vs. JEC--Faulty handle?<BR>><BR>><BR>>=20
Katherine:<BR>><BR>> To me DFXI =
does not=20
look even like a nice Cup (much less a cup with a<BR>> zig/zag=20
handle. However, I realize analyzing is all in perspective=20
(like<BR>> beauty, it's in the eye of the beholder, I =
guess). =20
Anyway, there was an<BR>on<BR>> point (at least I think so) =
article today=20
in IBD. You might find it<BR>useful.<BR>> It concerns wide =
and=20
loose bases:<BR>><BR>> "Investor's Corner<BR>> Friday, =
January 25,=20
2002<BR>><BR>> Base Can Be Tight And Loose<BR>> BY MONIKA=20
TJIA<BR>><BR>> INVESTOR'S BUSINESS =
DAILY<BR>><BR>><BR>>=20
Stocks form a variety of bases. Whether the base is a =
cup-with-handle or=20
a<BR>> double-bottom, in most cases you'll find at least a week =
or two of=20
wild<BR>> price<BR>> action.<BR>><BR>> That's OK. After =
all,=20
investors' emotions fuel stock movements. Fear<BR>drives<BR>> =
prices=20
sharply down, and greed yanks them back up.<BR>><BR>> But if =
you see=20
this erratic buying and selling throughout the base, watch<BR>> =
out. An=20
excessive number of dizzying price swings indicates=20
institutions<BR>are<BR>> moving in and out with ease. For every =
eager=20
buyer, count an anxious<BR>seller.<BR>><BR>> An occasional =
shakeout is=20
fine. But you want a base to also have at least<BR>> several =
weeks of=20
tight, quiet price action. This indicates solid support<BR>> =
throughout a=20
base.<BR>><BR>> Tight action means small price gaps from a =
stock's=20
weekly high to its<BR>weekly<BR>> low. Often you'll see a stock =
close the=20
week virtually unchanged for<BR>several<BR>> weeks in a row. This =
implies=20
a lack of speculators and a load of steady<BR>> long-term=20
shareholders.<BR>><BR>> >From its October 1998 low to its =
April 16,=20
1999, high, Techne (TECH) ran<BR>up<BR>> 150%. At its April peak =
(see=20
point 1 in accompanying image), the<BR>> fast-growing<BR>> =
maker of=20
cytokine test kits used to find new drugs formed a new base,<BR>> =
correcting 24% from its high.<BR>><BR>> As Techne formed its=20
cup-with-handle base, it moved up and down in tiny<BR>> steps. At =
the end=20
of each week in May, the stock finished very close to<BR>its<BR>> =
prior=20
weekly close (point 2).<BR>><BR>> In the week ended May 21, =
the stock=20
swung as much as 12%. But it had a<BR>> positive reversal. For =
the week,=20
it finished up 0.13 point vs. the prior<BR>> week<BR>> (point =
3). This=20
price action is exactly what you want to see, because<BR>> =
institutions=20
raced in to support the stock.<BR>><BR>> As Techne etched the =
right=20
side of its base, the weekly spreads grew<BR>wider.<BR>> But =
weeks of=20
quiet action far outnumbered its weeks of wild price =
swings.<BR>><BR>>=20
On Aug. 25, 1999, Techne broke out of its 19-week base on triple=20
average<BR>> trade (point 4).<BR>><BR>> After breaking out, =
Techne=20
moved sideways for a few weeks. It held above<BR>its<BR>> 50-day =
moving=20
average. When the market finally took off in late =
October,<BR>so<BR>> did=20
Techne.<BR>><BR>> >From its breakout to its July 2000 peak, =
Techne=20
gained 416%. It then<BR>began<BR>> to<BR>> carve a new =
three-month=20
base. But in terms of complexion, this one was the<BR>> exact =
opposite of=20
its previous base.<BR>><BR>> Instead of making slight price =
moves, it=20
made extreme ones virtually every<BR>> week. The price swings =
ranged as=20
much as 26%. Techne failed to finish its<BR>> base. It's now 56% =
off its=20
all-time high."<BR>><BR>> jans<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>> =
In a=20
message dated 1/25/2002 9:30:10 AM Eastern Standard Time,<BR>>=20
kmalm@earthlink.net writes:<BR>><BR>> << Hi=20
stockoper8or,<BR>><BR>> When I wrote my note mid-day, =
DFXI had a=20
tail. Looks like it ended<BR>midrange<BR>> after dropping a bit =
more=20
after my note. Interesting action. I suspect in<BR>a<BR>> =
stronger market=20
it would have been up and out of here by now. I wonder if<BR>>=20
the<BR>> zig zag handle that started it all was a sign of market =
iffiness=20
or a sign<BR>> of<BR>> stock iffiness. Just one for the "I =
wonder"=20
pile of thoughts!<BR>> >><BR>><BR>> =
- -<BR>> -To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>> -In =
the email=20
body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> -"unsubscribe =
canslim". Do=20
not use quotes in your email.<BR>><BR>><BR>> -<BR>> -To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>> -In =
the email=20
body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> -"unsubscribe =
canslim". Do=20
not use quotes in your email.<BR>><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the =
email body,=20
write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not =
use=20
quotes in your email.</FONT> =
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