Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Oskosh B'gosh gosha
Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 12:41:24 -0600
Previous Article (by Date): [CANSLIM] Sorry about 4 copies "Ben Chilcote"
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_009C_01C1AA54.97D55580 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Steve,=20 The 37% growth rate is a 5 year rate of growth in earnings. You can do a quick approximation by taking 1996 earnings=20 $0.66 * (1.37)^5 =3D 3.19 for current year The discrepancy between the high EPS Ranking and the lousy recent Q over = Q actual EPS numbers show the shortcoming of the EPS Ranking system. = That is, based on 5 year earnings growth, the company has outperformed = 89% of other stocks. But recent quarters tell the tale more often than = not. That's why WON says to look at *both* 5 yr growth (old history) and = recent QoQ EPS and Revenue growth (more recent history). As Tom often = points out, you also want to put this in context of *expected* EPS and = revenue growth in the near future by paying attention to earnings = estimates. All pieces of the bigger puzzle. The discrepancies in D/E, ROE and ROA between DGO and Yahoo have to do = with the time periods used for the calculations and also the many = interpretations of both EPS and number of shares outstanding. Here's an = example as to why you will find these differences: Go to MarketGuide and you will see the following EPS numbers for GOSHA: Diluted EPS Excl. Extraordinary items, Diluted EPS Incl. Extra. items, = Pro Forma Basic EPS, Pro Forma Diluted EPS, Basic Normalized EPS, = Diluted Normalized EPS. *ALL* of which differ from the DGO numbers! If = the number of shares and the EPS numbers can be this different and = interpreted in so many ways, you can see why D/E, ROE and ROA would be = so different. D/E =3D Long Term Debt/ Equity ROE =3D Earnings / Equity ROA =3D Earnings / Total Assets Fiddle with the numerator or denominator in any of these and you can = have a gazillion different answers. So...pick one source and just stick with it. Yahoo shows D/E at 61% so not sure where you see "very little debt." = They do list it as "0.61" rather than "61%" so that may be were the = confusion lies. Have fun! Katherine (and who said investing was easy??????!!) References so you can see all this mumbo jumbo yourself.... http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gosha.html look to lower right of page for = that 0.61 number http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformati= on/ratio&Ticker=3DGOSHA ratio comparisons to industry http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D%2Fstocks%2Fcompanyinfor= mation%2Fincomestmt2Faincomestd&Ticker=3DGOSHA annual income statements http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D%2Fstocks%2Fcompanyinfor= mation%2Fbalancesheet%2Fabalancestd&Ticker=3DGOSHA balance sheets Note: TTM =3D trailing 12 months, MRQ =3D most recent quarters Here's the DGO definitions DEBT PERCENTAGE: Calculated using fiscal year-end values and dividing the long-term debt = including lease obligations, convertible debt and mortgages by = shareholders' equity.=20 RETURN ON EQUITY PERCENTAGE: Computed by dividing annual income (before extraordinary items, = discontinued operations, cumulative accounting adjustments and = non-recurring items) by an average of the latest fiscal year and the = prior year's stockholders' equity. EARNINGS FIVE-YEAR GROWTH RATE: This item is calculated by using a least squares regression fit over a = 3-to-5 year period of earnings per share based on a trailing = four-quarter count. For example, if a stock is currently in its second = quarter, the first period used in this calculation will consist of the = sum of Q2 + Q1 (of the current fiscal year) plus Q4 +Q3 (of the prior = fiscal year). Each successive period will be based on the next trailing = four quarters of earnings per share. The amount of time used to calculate the Growth Rate is based on two = factors;=20 a.. Availability of data=20 b.. Positive earnings=20 If a stock does not have at least three years of positive earnings = (based on the trailing four-quarter method noted above), an "N/A" will = appear.=20 The amount of time used for this calculation will consist of at least = three years but no more than five years of positive earnings per share. = If a four-quarter period sum is negative, that period and additional = earnings further back in time, will not be used in the calculation of = this data item.=20 SHARES, COMMON OUTSTANDING (IN MILLIONS): The total number of shares issued by the company minus treasury stock.=20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Steve F=20 To: canslim@xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, January 31, 2002 8:44 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Oskosh B'gosh gosha I could use some help interpreting the DGO graph for this stock. RS - 91 =20 EPS - 89 Growth Rate 37% These numbers do not seem to correspond to the 'not so great' quarterly growth numbers on the bottom of the graph. Also, looking at the company profile on Yahoo shows almost no debt but the DGO datablock shows 76 %. =20 Note the return on Equity 68%, and return on assets 21% listed on Yahoo profile. Comments appreciated. Steve __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Great stuff seeking new owners in Yahoo! Auctions!=20 http://auctions.yahoo.com - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_009C_01C1AA54.97D55580 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML xmlns:o =3D "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV> Hi Steve, </DIV> <P class=3DMsoNormal>The 37% growth rate is a 5 year rate of growth in=20 earnings.</P> <P style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt">You can do a quick approximation by = taking 1996=20 earnings <o:p></o:p></P> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">$0.66=20 * (1.37)^5 =3D 3.19 for current year</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: = AR-SA"></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">The=20 discrepancy between the high EPS Ranking and the lousy recent Q over Q = actual=20 EPS numbers show the shortcoming of the EPS Ranking system. That is, = based on 5=20 year earnings growth, the company has outperformed 89% of other stocks. = But=20 recent quarters tell the tale more often than not. That's why WON says = to look=20 at *both* 5 yr growth (old history) and recent QoQ EPS and Revenue = growth (more=20 recent history). As Tom often points out, you also want to put this in = context=20 of *expected* EPS and revenue growth in the near future by paying = attention to=20 earnings estimates. All pieces of the bigger puzzle.</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: = AR-SA"></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">The=20 discrepancies in D/E, ROE and ROA between DGO and Yahoo have to do with = the time=20 periods used for the calculations and also the many interpretations of = both EPS=20 and number of shares outstanding. Here's an example as to why you will = find=20 these differences:</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: = AR-SA"></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Go=20 to MarketGuide and you will see the following EPS numbers for=20 GOSHA:</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Diluted=20 EPS Excl. Extraordinary items, Diluted EPS Incl. Extra. items, Pro Forma = Basic=20 EPS, Pro Forma Diluted EPS, Basic Normalized EPS, Diluted Normalized = EPS. *ALL*=20 of which differ from the DGO numbers! If the number of shares and the = EPS=20 numbers can be this different and interpreted in so many ways, you can = see why=20 D/E, ROE and ROA would be so different.</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: = AR-SA"></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">D/E=20 =3D Long Term Debt/ Equity</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">ROE=20 =3D Earnings / Equity</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">ROA=20 =3D Earnings / Total Assets</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: = AR-SA"></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Fiddle=20 with the numerator or denominator in any of these and you can have a = gazillion=20 different answers.</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: = AR-SA"></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">So...pick=20 one source and just stick with it.</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: = AR-SA"></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Yahoo=20 shows D/E at 61% so not sure where you see "very little debt." They do = list it=20 as "0.61" rather than "61%" so that may be were the confusion = lies.</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: = AR-SA"></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Have=20 fun! Katherine (and who said investing was easy??????!!)</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: = AR-SA"></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">References=20 so you can see all this mumbo jumbo yourself....</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><A=20 href=3D"http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gosha.html">http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gos= ha.html</A> =20 look to lower right of page for that 0.61 number</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><A=20 href=3D"http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyi= nformation/ratio&Ticker=3DGOSHA">http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.= asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformation/ratio&Ticker=3DGOSHA</A> = ;ratio=20 comparisons to industry</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><A=20 href=3D"http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D%2Fstocks%2Fcomp= anyinformation%2Fincomestmt2Faincomestd&Ticker=3DGOSHA">http://yahoo.= marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D%2Fstocks%2Fcompanyinformation%2Finco= mestmt2Faincomestd&Ticker=3DGOSHA</A> annual=20 income statements</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><A=20 href=3D"http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D%2Fstocks%2Fcomp= anyinformation%2Fbalancesheet%2Fabalancestd&Ticker=3DGOSHA">http://ya= hoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D%2Fstocks%2Fcompanyinformation%2F= balancesheet%2Fabalancestd&Ticker=3DGOSHA</A> balance=20 sheets</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: = AR-SA"></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Note:=20 TTM =3D trailing 12 months, MRQ =3D most recent quarters</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: = AR-SA"></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; = mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; = mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Here's=20 the DGO definitions</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#000080 size=3D3>DEBT=20 PERCENTAGE:</FONT><BR><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#000080 = size=3D2>Calculated using=20 fiscal year-end values and dividing the long-term debt including lease=20 obligations, convertible debt and mortgages by shareholders' equity.=20 </FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV> <P><STRONG><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#000080 size=3D3>RETURN ON EQUITY=20 PERCENTAGE:</FONT><BR><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#000080 = size=3D2>Computed by dividing=20 annual income (before extraordinary items, discontinued operations, = cumulative=20 accounting adjustments and non-recurring items) by an average of the = latest=20 fiscal year and the prior year's stockholders' = equity.</FONT></STRONG></P></DIV> <DIV> <P><STRONG><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#000080 size=3D3>EARNINGS = FIVE-YEAR GROWTH=20 RATE:</FONT><BR><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>This item is c<FONT = face=3DArial=20 color=3D#000080 size=3D2>alculated by using a least squares regression = fit over a=20 3-to-5 year period of earnings per share based on a trailing = four-quarter count.=20 For example, if a stock is currently in its second quarter, the first = period=20 used in this calculation will consist of the sum of = </FONT></FONT></STRONG><FONT=20 face=3DArial size=3D2><B>Q2 + Q1 (of the current fiscal year) plus Q4 = +Q3 (of the=20 prior fiscal year). Each successive period will be based on the = next=20 trailing four quarters of earnings per share.</B></FONT></P> <P><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><B>The amount of time used to calculate = the Growth=20 Rate is based on two factors; </B></FONT></P> <UL> <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><B>Availability of data</B></FONT>=20 <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><B>Positive earnings</B></FONT> = </LI></UL> <P><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><B>If a stock does not have at least = three years of=20 positive earnings (based on the trailing four-quarter method noted = above), an=20 </B><STRONG><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#000080 size=3D2>"N/A" will=20 appear. </FONT></STRONG></FONT></P> <P><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><STRONG><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#000080 size=3D2>The=20 amount of time used for this calculation will consist of at least three = years=20 but no more than five years of positive earnings per share. If a = four-quarter=20 period sum is negative, that period and additional earnings further back = in=20 time, will not be used in the calculation of this data=20 item. </FONT></STRONG></FONT></P></DIV> <DIV> <P><STRONG><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#000080 size=3D3>SHARES, COMMON = OUTSTANDING (IN=20 MILLIONS):</FONT><BR><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#000080 size=3D2>The = total number of=20 shares issued by the company minus treasury stock. = </FONT></STRONG></P></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dstevepdv@yahoo.com href=3D"mailto:stevepdv@yahoo.com">Steve = F</A>=20 </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@xmission.com=20 href=3D"mailto:canslim@xmission.com">canslim@xmission.com</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 31, = 2002 8:44=20 AM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Oskosh = B'gosh=20 gosha</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV>I could use some help interpreting the DGO graph = for<BR>this=20 stock.<BR><BR>RS - 91 <BR>EPS - = 89<BR>Growth=20 Rate 37%<BR><BR>These numbers do not seem to correspond to the 'not=20 so<BR>great' quarterly growth numbers on the bottom of=20 the<BR>graph.<BR><BR>Also, looking at the company profile on = Yahoo=20 shows<BR>almost no debt but the DGO datablock shows 76 %. = <BR><BR>Note=20 the return on Equity 68%, and return on assets<BR>21% listed on Yahoo=20 profile.<BR><BR>Comments =20 = appreciated.<BR><BR>Steve<BR><BR>________________________________________= __________<BR>Do=20 You Yahoo!?<BR>Great stuff seeking new owners in Yahoo! Auctions! = <BR><A=20 = href=3D"http://auctions.yahoo.com">http://auctions.yahoo.com</A><BR><BR>-= <BR>-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_009C_01C1AA54.97D55580-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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