Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 06:27:19 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_009B_01C1ABB2.AA8D7450 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_009C_01C1ABB2.AA8D7450" - ------=_NextPart_001_009C_01C1ABB2.AA8D7450 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable EARNINGS This past week marked the last heavy week of the current reporting = cycle. At the start of the week, 262 of the S&P 500 had reported with = 155 beating expectations and 72 met expectations. Granted, expectations = have been lowered substantially already and easier to meet or beat, but = another sign that the worst is behind ourselves, and permitting more = confidence in forecasts going forward.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN Consumer prices dropped another 0.7% for all of 2001, the third = consecutive year of deflation. Wednesday, the Nikkei broke 10,000 to the = downside for the first time in 3 months. March 31, the banks are still = scheduled to begin marking their stock portfolios to market values = rather than using cost basis or other higher measures of appraisal. Many = fear a massive wave of selling if this is not delayed once again. On = Friday, the Nikkei already under the psychologically important 10,000, = blew right through both the 9,900 and 9,800 levels, closing down over 2% = at 9,791 despite a strong day on the US markets. Japanese auto makers = are mostly reporting falling sales for the month of January. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ECONOMICS New home sales beat expectations and jumped 5.7% in December, helping = set a new record for the full year of 900,000 homes. Existing home sales = dropped in December, but still set a new record for the full year as = well.=20 Durable goods orders jumped 2.0% in December, beating expectations of = 1.3% gain. It was down 6.0% in November. Biggest gain was in = semiconductor orders, up over 13%. For the year, durable goods orders = were down 13.2%. Consumer Confidence rose to 97.3 from 94.6 in December. Expected was = 96.0. The expectations index rose to 96.9 from 92.4. As expected, FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee - the "Feds") left = rates unchanged on Tuesday, as well as leaving the bias in place. = Comments indicate they still see the greater threat as a weak economy, = not inflation. 4th qtr GDP surprised most by increasing 0.2% annualized, instead of the = expected 1.1% drop. Unless later revised to a negative #, this means by = traditional measures we never went into a recession (and remember I = suggested that possibility about 3 months ago!!). And, of course, the = experts at the Nat'l Bureau of Economic Research says this doesn't = change their opinion one bit that we went into recession in March when = growth slowed. One contributing component was another sharp drop in = inventories. Weekly unemployment claims showed little change, but the 4 week average = continued to decline to 386K. Consumer spending/income showed a small decrease in spending despite a = growth in income. Does this mean people are saving, or paying off high = interest rate credit?? Nahhh! Just reflects all the zero or near zero = interest rate car deals. Unemployment fell in January to a surprising 5.6% rate instead of the = expected rise to 5.9%. The loss of 89K jobs was the smallest since 9/11, = and well under the average of 311K for the last three months of 2001.=20 Univ. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment gauge also surged ahead to 93 = from 88.8, but still missed expectations of 94.2. The Institute for Supply Management (formerly NAPM) reported that the = manufacturing index rose to 49.9 in January from 48.2 in December = (anything over 50 means expansion, so right on the edge). This is the = third straight month of increases. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- MORE ACCOUNTING SHENANIGANS Ernst & Young admitted this week that they were the "consultants" (as = well as auditors, of course) that advised PNC they did not need to = consolidate their investments in units established with AIG. SEC says = otherwise, and PNC now must restate their earnings downward by a piddly = $155 million.=20 And another major accounting firm announced that they are spinning off = their consulting biz. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ONE LINERS The USA leads in volume of cyber attacks, and Israel leads on a = percentage of internet users (likely because of the high state of = technology in that country). OPEC Cuts - compliance with the latest production cuts is still under = 100%, with 550K barrels a day over the quota still being pumped. And in = Russia, where they are already swimming in crude, the domestic price per = barrel is under $6.00, and all indications are that they may not honor = their agreed cutback. Meanwhile, demand in both the USA and globally = appears to still be falling, keeping prices low. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks, IMO. Should I see a = specific pattern such as a H&S, double bottom, LLUR, etc. then I will = mention that. I am mostly concentrating on the prior six months of the = chart. ACDO - 4 week consolidation of the spike up, vol drying up ASFI - B2+, in my VR fund, EPS 73 BBY - B6, volume low DFXI - hanging in there on light volume DLX - still LLUR, but no price progress with some volume GOSHA - B3 GTIV - B2 HYSL - base on base?? IART - B2 at the pivot, tried to b/o Friday ISLE - B2, volume down, I have in my VR Fund MBFI - B4 NTBK - B2+ PETM - LLUR RGIS - smooth, but at least 32 insider sales in past 9 months RMCI - c&h below the high, owned and in my VR fund SCVL - B3 SWTX - B4 TASR - B3, EPS 55 URBN - flat 6 week base trending up on light volume VIP - B1+, play on telecom svcs in Russia, strong growth, volume down WGO - B2+ WLP - B2+, last week's b/o seems to be failing Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_009C_01C1ABB2.AA8D7450 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2712.300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>EARNINGS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This past week marked the last heavy week of the = current=20 reporting cycle. At the start of the week, 262 of the S&P 500 = had=20 reported with 155 beating expectations and 72 met expectations. Granted, = expectations have been lowered substantially already and easier to meet = or beat,=20 but another sign that the worst is behind ourselves, and permitting more = confidence in forecasts going forward.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Consumer prices dropped another 0.7% for all of = 2001, the=20 third consecutive year of deflation. Wednesday, the Nikkei broke 10,000 = to the=20 downside for the first time in 3 months. March 31, the banks are = still=20 scheduled to begin marking their stock portfolios to market values = rather than=20 using cost basis or other higher measures of appraisal. Many fear a = massive wave=20 of selling if this is not delayed once again. On Friday, the Nikkei = already=20 under the psychologically important 10,000, blew right through both the = 9,900=20 and 9,800 levels, closing down over 2% at 9,791 despite a strong day on = the US=20 markets. Japanese auto makers are mostly reporting falling sales for the = month=20 of January.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>New home sales beat expectations and jumped 5.7% in December, = helping set a=20 new record for the full year of 900,000 homes. Existing home sales = dropped in=20 December, but still set a new record for the full year as well. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Durable goods orders jumped 2.0% in December, beating expectations = of 1.3%=20 gain. It was down 6.0% in November. Biggest gain was in semiconductor = orders, up=20 over 13%. For the year, durable goods orders were down 13.2%.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Consumer Confidence rose to 97.3 from 94.6 in December. Expected = was 96.0.=20 The expectations index rose to 96.9 from 92.4.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>As expected, FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee - the "Feds") left = rates=20 unchanged on Tuesday, as well as leaving the bias in place. Comments = indicate=20 they still see the greater threat as a weak economy, not = inflation.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>4th qtr GDP surprised most by increasing 0.2% annualized, instead = of the=20 expected 1.1% drop. Unless later revised to a negative #, this means by=20 traditional measures we never went into a recession (and remember I = suggested=20 that possibility about 3 months ago!!). And, of course, the experts at = the Nat'l=20 Bureau of Economic Research says this doesn't change their opinion one = bit that=20 we went into recession in March when growth slowed. One contributing = component=20 was another sharp drop in inventories.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Weekly unemployment claims showed little change, but the 4 week = average=20 continued to decline to 386K.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Consumer spending/income showed a small decrease in spending = despite a=20 growth in income. Does this mean people are saving, or paying off high = interest=20 rate credit?? Nahhh! Just reflects all the zero or near zero interest = rate car=20 deals.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Unemployment fell in January to a surprising 5.6% rate instead of = the=20 expected rise to 5.9%. The loss of 89K jobs was the smallest since 9/11, = and=20 well under the average of 311K for the last three months of 2001. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Univ. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment gauge also surged ahead to = 93 from=20 88.8, but still missed expectations of 94.2.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The Institute for Supply Management (formerly NAPM) reported that = the=20 manufacturing index rose to 49.9 in January from 48.2 in December = (anything over=20 50 means expansion, so right on the edge). This is the third straight = month of=20 increases.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>MORE ACCOUNTING SHENANIGANS</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>Ernst & Young admitted this week that they were the = "consultants" (as=20 well as auditors, of course) that advised PNC they did not need to = consolidate=20 their investments in units established with AIG. SEC says otherwise, and = PNC now=20 must restate their earnings downward by a piddly $155 million. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>And another major accounting firm announced that they are spinning = off=20 their consulting biz.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ONE LINERS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The USA leads in volume of cyber attacks, and = Israel leads=20 on a percentage of internet users (likely because of the high state of=20 technology in that country).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>OPEC Cuts - compliance with the latest = production cuts is=20 still under 100%, with 550K barrels a day over the quota still being = pumped. And=20 in Russia, where they are already swimming in crude, the domestic price = per=20 barrel is under $6.00, and all indications are that they may not honor = their=20 agreed cutback. Meanwhile, demand in both the USA and = globally appears to=20 still be falling, keeping prices low. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABES</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" = weeks, IMO.=20 Should I see a specific pattern such as a H&S, double bottom, LLUR, = etc.=20 then I will mention that. I am mostly concentrating on the prior six = months of=20 the chart.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ACDO - 4 week consolidation of the spike up, vol = drying=20 up</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ASFI - B2+, in my VR fund, EPS 73</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BBY - B6, volume low</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DFXI - hanging in there on light = volume</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DLX - still LLUR, but no price progress with = some=20 volume</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GOSHA - B3</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GTIV - B2</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>HYSL - base on base??</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>IART - B2 at the pivot, tried to b/o = Friday</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ISLE - B2, volume down, I have in my VR = Fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MBFI - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>NTBK - B2+</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PETM - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RGIS - smooth, but at least 32 insider sales in = past 9=20 months</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RMCI - c&h below the high, owned and in my = VR=20 fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SCVL - B3</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SWTX - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>TASR - B3, EPS 55</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>URBN - flat 6 week base trending up on light=20 volume</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>VIP - B1+, play on telecom svcs in Russia, = strong growth,=20 volume down</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>WGO - B2+</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>WLP - B2+, last week's b/o seems to be=20 failing</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 = src=3D"cid:009a01c1abdc$93613260$25a08fd0@D73PS211"=20 align=3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20 TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_009C_01C1ABB2.AA8D7450-- - ------=_NextPart_000_009B_01C1ABB2.AA8D7450 Content-Type: image/gif; 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