Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Fred Richards" <adrich@gte.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Worley's W W - Japan and TYC
Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2002 09:23:15 -0600
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"As for the safety of money markets, I have no information to suggest any
reason for concern. Certainly, it's not as safe as just putting the money in
an FDIC insured bank account, but it does pay a little better interest
rate."
Money markets are becoming of concern. You really need to understand the
underlying assets which are in their portfolio's. If they had Enron paper
or Global Crossing paper, you have a problem. As bankruptcies continue and
the commercial paper market becomes more difficult, money market funds have
increasing risk. The money market funds in Japan and elsewhere are becoming
more difficult to assess their fundamental soundness.
The real question is about the same as junk bond safety. Why do you think
they call it junk?
Ergo, higher return, higher risk of losing it all.
In this market, are you willing to take higher risk as the level of
uncertainty mounts.
Each person must answer that question to their own satisfaction, of course.
In Japan, at least, the citizens seeing their yen decline in value are
opting at these low interest rates to move to hard assets, i.e., gold,
silver and platinum. Will the rock running down the snow covered mountain
gain mass, who really knows but history suggests that it does.
There is a major difference now in the gold market. The producers with the
possible exception of Barrick are reducing their hedge books. Barrick
bought Homestake to reduce its hedge book but still has the highest
percentage of its forward production hedged. Newmont and Placer Dome are
getting out of their hedge positions. Placer Dome has stopped activity on a
major new development until the price goes towards $400 per oz. Actual
costs for most mines are higher than present prices for the metal. While I
doubt if I can be considered a gold bull, the fundamentals of the market
caused me to begin adding gold stocks to my portfolio last May. Lucky me.
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Sunday, February 10, 2002 6:12 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's W W - Japan and TYC
Good point, John. It's not enough to recognize dangers, we also need to
find ways to avoid them, and maybe even make money off them.
As far as avoiding a disaster like Enron, I don't have good answers. Since
I usually buy small immature companies, I think I am at less risk, most are
just not sophisticated enough for such a scam. And since all the
professionals (analysts, fund managers, banks, institutional investors) seem
to have missed the issues on Enron, I don't feel I lose much in buying
stocks without lots of analysts and funds behind it. One thing I had already
been paying more attention to is cash flow compared to earnings. If there is
a huge difference, especially if ROE is low, then I do further due
diligence. But if a company can phony up earnings, I guess they can phony up
cash flow as well. And I think the new accounting standards for reporting
earnings will make it even easier to fudge the numbers.
As for the affects of a financial collapse in Japan, that is more
difficult as it will be global. The G7 met this weekend, but I have not read
any reports on what they did. And the most important work will have been
done in secrecy and not reported. I did read a report from one of my
subscription services, a "think tank" kind of analysis, that suggests the
way for the world to deal with Japan is to isolate it until either it
collapses and takes the difficult steps to fix the problems, or somehow
begins fundamental changes prior to collapsing.
For my investing, I am trying to avoid any foreign exposure, thus limiting
currency exchange rate risk. I also only buy small companies, thus further
limiting my global exposure. I avoid all Asian and Latin America (due the
collapse in Argentina) exposure possible, the most I may have is minor (in
my 401K funds). I am still fully invested, including on margin, but not
obeying many sell rules. I have given up about half my net gain for the year
to date, but still well ahead of money market rates, and having fun. My 401K
plans to add a small cap fund to the list available, and I will move money
there from my mid and large cap growth funds. I have about 15% cash in my
401K, that is the only investing cash left. I also maintain a substantial
savings, in excess of six months requirements.
Right now, I read "M" as saying we are in a downtrend. Even if we get some
follow thru next week from Friday's gains, I am not convinced it will be
sufficient to reverse the overall trend. So some selective shorting may be
reasonable if you know what you are doing. Best bet right now is let your
remaining stocks tell you when to exit, then remain in cash.
As for the safety of money markets, I have no information to suggest any
reason for concern. Certainly, it's not as safe as just putting the money in
an FDIC insured bank account, but it does pay a little better interest rate.
I am not embarrassed to admit I didn't anticipate the strength in gold and
gold stocks over the past two weeks. Gold has been in a bear market for
something like 20 years, and since it doesn't pay interest, your money over
that time would have done better in a bond fund or hedge fund or even a
money market. The last time gold surged over $300, all the gold touters were
yelling, Bull Market, Bull Market. Lasted a few weeks while the gold
producers sold futures into the strength, then gradually dropped right back
down to prior levels. Don't know if that will be the case again, depends on
whether the buying continues. Every gold stock I looked at this weekend was
already well extended. If I found one that was not, I would be dubious of
it.
I hope this helps a little, maybe some of the other members can add more
ideas to this on what we should be doing.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: John Adair
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Sunday, February 10, 2002 1:07 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Worley's W W - Japan and TYC
The news just keeps getting worse. My most respected sources are all
very depressed with much doom and gloom. Ok I can accept that but how about
some talk on what to do. Most seem to indicate catastrophe is Just around
the corner yet you keep investing. Does anyone think gold is the way to go.
Are shorts indicated. I don’t think so. How about some suggestions on
protecting our money If we really believe things are as bad as indicated My
friend Fred Richards says fannie and ginney are in over their heads and
the government has said to quit making marginal loans. Where are we
really? Are money markets safe?
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Saturday, February 09, 2002 11:32 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's W W - Japan and TYC
Hi Rolf,
I'm in a bit of a rush today, so more details later. But, the biggest
"threat" to the rest of the world if Japan goes down is "exported
deflation." Imagine a world where Japan floods the market with autos at 1/2
the price of an American made model. US business has to "match" to be able
to sell their products. I'll give a more detailed example of the domino
effect that has on the US economy tomorrow when I have some time.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: rolf hertenstein
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Saturday, February 09, 2002 10:24 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's W W - Japan and TYC
I'm just trying to understand a couple issues raised a bit better.
Read the Erdman article on Japan, Tom's comments on it and his WWW Japan
comments. What real impact would a Japanese crash have on our economy?
Do U.S. banks have big loans to Japanese corps? Our exports to Japan
aren't
so large that a slow-down in exports to Japan would hurt us, or would
they? With
a falling yen would Japanese exports get so cheap that nobody would buy
our
goods?
As for TYC, even though they didn't announce (press releases) all
acquisitions,
they were still properly reported in quarterly reports I believe. So
this is sloppy PR
perhaps but nothing wrong (illegal or misleading) me thinks. Correct?
Rolf
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D670065512-10022002><FONT lang=3D0 FAMILY=3D"SERIF">
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><FONT color=3D#0000ff><FONT size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D670065512-10022002>"</SPAN>As for the safety of money markets, I =
have no=20
information to suggest any reason for concern. Certainly, it's not as =
safe as=20
just putting the money in an FDIC insured bank account, but it does pay =
a little=20
better interest rate.<SPAN=20
class=3D670065512-10022002>"</SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670065512-10022002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Money=20
markets are becoming of concern. You really need to understand the =
underlying assets which are in their portfolio's. If they had =
Enron paper=20
or Global Crossing paper, you have a problem. As bankruptcies continue =
and the=20
commercial paper market becomes more difficult, money market funds have=20
increasing risk. The money market funds in Japan and elsewhere are =
becoming more difficult to assess their fundamental=20
soundness.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670065512-10022002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670065512-10022002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>The=20
real question is about the same as junk bond safety. Why do you =
think they=20
call it junk?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670065512-10022002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670065512-10022002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Ergo, higher return, higher risk of losing it all. =20
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670065512-10022002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670065512-10022002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>In=20
this market, are you willing to take higher risk as the level of =
uncertainty=20
mounts.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670065512-10022002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670065512-10022002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Each=20
person must answer that question to their own satisfaction, of=20
course.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670065512-10022002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670065512-10022002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>In=20
Japan, at least, the citizens seeing their yen decline in value are =
opting at=20
these low interest rates to move to hard assets, i.e., gold, silver and=20
platinum. Will the rock running down the snow covered mountain =
gain mass,=20
who really knows but history suggests that it does.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670065512-10022002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D670065512-10022002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>There=20
is a major difference now in the gold market. The producers with =
the=20
possible exception of Barrick are reducing their hedge books. =
Barrick=20
bought Homestake to reduce its hedge book but still has the highest =
percentage=20
of its forward production hedged. Newmont and Placer Dome =
are getting=20
out of their hedge positions. Placer Dome has stopped activity on =
a major=20
new development until the price goes towards $400 per oz. Actual =
costs for=20
most mines are higher than present prices for the metal. While I doubt =
if I can=20
be considered a gold bull, the fundamentals of the market caused me to =
begin=20
adding gold stocks to my portfolio last May. Lucky=20
me.</FONT></SPAN></DIV></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Tom=20
Worley<BR><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 10, 2002 6:12 AM<BR><B>To:</B> =
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's W =
W -=20
Japan and TYC<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Good point, John. It's not enough to recognize =
dangers,=20
we also need to find ways to avoid them, and maybe even make money off =
them.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As far as avoiding a disaster like Enron, I =
don't have=20
good answers. Since I usually buy small immature companies, I think I =
am at=20
less risk, most are just not sophisticated enough for such a scam. And =
since=20
all the professionals (analysts, fund managers, banks, institutional=20
investors) seem to have missed the issues on Enron, I don't feel I =
lose much=20
in buying stocks without lots of analysts and funds behind it. One =
thing I had=20
already been paying more attention to is cash flow compared to =
earnings. If=20
there is a huge difference, especially if ROE is low, then I do =
further due=20
diligence. But if a company can phony up earnings, I guess they can =
phony up=20
cash flow as well. And I think the new accounting standards for =
reporting=20
earnings will make it even easier to fudge the numbers.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As for the affects of a financial collapse in =
Japan,=20
that is more difficult as it will be global. The G7 met this weekend, =
but I=20
have not read any reports on what they did. And the most important =
work will=20
have been done in secrecy and not reported. I did read a report from =
one of my=20
subscription services, a "think tank" kind of analysis, that suggests =
the way=20
for the world to deal with Japan is to isolate it until either it =
collapses=20
and takes the difficult steps to fix the problems, or somehow begins=20
fundamental changes prior to collapsing. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>For my investing, I am trying to avoid any =
foreign=20
exposure, thus limiting currency exchange rate risk. I also only buy =
small=20
companies, thus further limiting my global exposure. I avoid all Asian =
and=20
Latin America (due the collapse in Argentina) exposure possible, the =
most I=20
may have is minor (in my 401K funds). I am still fully invested, =
including on=20
margin, but not obeying many sell rules. I have given up about half my =
net=20
gain for the year to date, but still well ahead of money market rates, =
and=20
having fun. My 401K plans to add a small cap fund to the list =
available, and I=20
will move money there from my mid and large cap growth funds. I have =
about 15%=20
cash in my 401K, that is the only investing cash left. I also maintain =
a=20
substantial savings, in excess of six months =
requirements.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Right now, I read "M" as saying we are in a =
downtrend.=20
Even if we get some follow thru next week from Friday's gains, I am =
not=20
convinced it will be sufficient to reverse the overall trend. So =
some=20
selective shorting may be reasonable if you know what you are doing. =
Best bet=20
right now is let your remaining stocks tell you when to exit, then =
remain in=20
cash.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As for the safety of money markets, I have no=20
information to suggest any reason for concern. Certainly, it's not as =
safe as=20
just putting the money in an FDIC insured bank account, but it does =
pay a=20
little better interest rate.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I am not embarrassed to admit I =
didn't anticipate=20
the strength in gold and gold stocks over the past two weeks. Gold has =
been in=20
a bear market for something like 20 years, and since it doesn't pay =
interest,=20
your money over that time would have done better in a bond fund or =
hedge fund=20
or even a money market. The last time gold surged over $300, all the =
gold=20
touters were yelling, Bull Market, Bull Market. Lasted a few weeks =
while the=20
gold producers sold futures into the strength, then gradually dropped =
right=20
back down to prior levels. Don't know if that will be the case again, =
depends=20
on whether the buying continues. Every gold stock I looked at this =
weekend was=20
already well extended. If I found one that was not, I would be dubious =
of=20
it.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I hope this helps a little, maybe some of the =
other=20
members can add more ideas to this on what we should be =
doing.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dxjadair@brightok.net =
href=3D"mailto:xjadair@brightok.net">John=20
Adair</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 10, =
2002 1:07=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] =
Worley's W W -=20
Japan and TYC</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle17><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dnavy=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">The=20
news just keeps getting worse. My most respected sources are all =
very=20
depressed with much doom and gloom. Ok I can accept that but how =
about some=20
talk on what to do. Most seem to indicate catastrophe is Just around =
the=20
corner yet you keep investing. Does anyone think gold is the way to =
go. Are=20
shorts indicated. I don=92t think so. How about some suggestions on =
protecting=20
our money If we really believe things are as bad as indicated My =
friend=20
<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Fred Richards <SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>says fannie and ginney are =
in over=20
their heads and the<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> =20
</SPAN>government has said to quit making marginal loans. Where are =
we=20
really? <SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Are money =
markets=20
safe?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle17><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dnavy=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DTahoma color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: =
bold">From:</SPAN></B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">On Behalf Of </SPAN></B>Katherine =
Malm<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Saturday, February 09, =
2002 11:32=20
AM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Worley's W W -=20
Japan and TYC</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black">Hi=20
Rolf,</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black">I'm in a bit=20
of a rush today, so more details later. But, the biggest "threat" to =
the=20
rest of the world if Japan goes down is "exported deflation." =
Imagine a=20
world where Japan floods the market with autos at 1/2 the price of =
an=20
American made model. US business has to "match" to be able to sell =
their=20
products. I'll give a more detailed example of the domino effect =
that has on=20
the US economy tomorrow when I have some time.</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">Katherine</SPAN></FONT><FONT =
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black =
1.5pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none">
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">----- =
Original=20
Message ----- </SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; PADDING-BOTTOM: =
0in; MARGIN-LEFT: 39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; =
BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; =
mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; =
mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 4.0pt"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<DIV style=3D"font-color: black">From:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <A=20
title=3Drolfh@mindspring.com =
href=3D"mailto:rolfh@mindspring.com">rolf=20
hertenstein</A> </SPAN></FONT></DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT>
<P></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">To:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Sent:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> =
Saturday,=20
February 09, 2002 10:24 AM</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Subject:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
Worley's W W - Japan and TYC</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">I'm just =
trying to=20
understand a couple issues raised a bit better.</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Read the =
Erdman=20
article on Japan, Tom's comments on it and his WWW =
Japan</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">comments. =20
What real impact would a Japanese crash have on our=20
economy?</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Do U.S. =
banks have=20
big loans to Japanese corps? Our exports to Japan=20
aren't</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">so large =
that a=20
slow-down in exports to Japan would hurt us, or would they? =20
With</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">a =
falling yen=20
would Japanese exports get so cheap that nobody would buy=20
our</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">goods?</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">As for =
TYC, even=20
though they didn't announce (press releases) all acquisitions,=20
</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">they =
were still=20
properly reported in quarterly reports I believe. So this is =
sloppy PR=20
</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">perhaps =
but=20
nothing wrong (illegal or misleading) me thinks. =20
Correct?</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> Rolf</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCK=
QUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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