Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's W W - Japan and TYC
Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2002 07:11:37 -0500
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Good point, John. It's not enough to recognize dangers, we also need to =
find ways to avoid them, and maybe even make money off them.
As far as avoiding a disaster like Enron, I don't have good answers. =
Since I usually buy small immature companies, I think I am at less risk, =
most are just not sophisticated enough for such a scam. And since all =
the professionals (analysts, fund managers, banks, institutional =
investors) seem to have missed the issues on Enron, I don't feel I lose =
much in buying stocks without lots of analysts and funds behind it. One =
thing I had already been paying more attention to is cash flow compared =
to earnings. If there is a huge difference, especially if ROE is low, =
then I do further due diligence. But if a company can phony up earnings, =
I guess they can phony up cash flow as well. And I think the new =
accounting standards for reporting earnings will make it even easier to =
fudge the numbers.
As for the affects of a financial collapse in Japan, that is more =
difficult as it will be global. The G7 met this weekend, but I have not =
read any reports on what they did. And the most important work will have =
been done in secrecy and not reported. I did read a report from one of =
my subscription services, a "think tank" kind of analysis, that suggests =
the way for the world to deal with Japan is to isolate it until either =
it collapses and takes the difficult steps to fix the problems, or =
somehow begins fundamental changes prior to collapsing.=20
For my investing, I am trying to avoid any foreign exposure, thus =
limiting currency exchange rate risk. I also only buy small companies, =
thus further limiting my global exposure. I avoid all Asian and Latin =
America (due the collapse in Argentina) exposure possible, the most I =
may have is minor (in my 401K funds). I am still fully invested, =
including on margin, but not obeying many sell rules. I have given up =
about half my net gain for the year to date, but still well ahead of =
money market rates, and having fun. My 401K plans to add a small cap =
fund to the list available, and I will move money there from my mid and =
large cap growth funds. I have about 15% cash in my 401K, that is the =
only investing cash left. I also maintain a substantial savings, in =
excess of six months requirements.
Right now, I read "M" as saying we are in a downtrend. Even if we get =
some follow thru next week from Friday's gains, I am not convinced it =
will be sufficient to reverse the overall trend. So some selective =
shorting may be reasonable if you know what you are doing. Best bet =
right now is let your remaining stocks tell you when to exit, then =
remain in cash.
As for the safety of money markets, I have no information to suggest any =
reason for concern. Certainly, it's not as safe as just putting the =
money in an FDIC insured bank account, but it does pay a little better =
interest rate.
I am not embarrassed to admit I didn't anticipate the strength in gold =
and gold stocks over the past two weeks. Gold has been in a bear market =
for something like 20 years, and since it doesn't pay interest, your =
money over that time would have done better in a bond fund or hedge fund =
or even a money market. The last time gold surged over $300, all the =
gold touters were yelling, Bull Market, Bull Market. Lasted a few weeks =
while the gold producers sold futures into the strength, then gradually =
dropped right back down to prior levels. Don't know if that will be the =
case again, depends on whether the buying continues. Every gold stock I =
looked at this weekend was already well extended. If I found one that =
was not, I would be dubious of it.
I hope this helps a little, maybe some of the other members can add more =
ideas to this on what we should be doing.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: John Adair=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, February 10, 2002 1:07 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Worley's W W - Japan and TYC
The news just keeps getting worse. My most respected sources are all =
very depressed with much doom and gloom. Ok I can accept that but how =
about some talk on what to do. Most seem to indicate catastrophe is Just =
around the corner yet you keep investing. Does anyone think gold is the =
way to go. Are shorts indicated. I don't think so. How about some =
suggestions on protecting our money If we really believe things are as =
bad as indicated My friend Fred Richards says fannie and ginney are in =
over their heads and the government has said to quit making marginal =
loans. Where are we really? Are money markets safe?
=20
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Saturday, February 09, 2002 11:32 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's W W - Japan and TYC
=20
Hi Rolf,
=20
I'm in a bit of a rush today, so more details later. But, the biggest =
"threat" to the rest of the world if Japan goes down is "exported =
deflation." Imagine a world where Japan floods the market with autos at =
1/2 the price of an American made model. US business has to "match" to =
be able to sell their products. I'll give a more detailed example of the =
domino effect that has on the US economy tomorrow when I have some time.
=20
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: rolf hertenstein=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, February 09, 2002 10:24 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's W W - Japan and TYC
=20
I'm just trying to understand a couple issues raised a bit better.
=20
Read the Erdman article on Japan, Tom's comments on it and his WWW =
Japan
comments. What real impact would a Japanese crash have on our =
economy?
Do U.S. banks have big loans to Japanese corps? Our exports to Japan =
aren't
so large that a slow-down in exports to Japan would hurt us, or would =
they? With
a falling yen would Japanese exports get so cheap that nobody would =
buy our
goods?
=20
As for TYC, even though they didn't announce (press releases) all =
acquisitions,=20
they were still properly reported in quarterly reports I believe. So =
this is sloppy PR=20
perhaps but nothing wrong (illegal or misleading) me thinks. Correct?
=20
Rolf
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Good point, John. It's not enough to recognize =
dangers, we=20
also need to find ways to avoid them, and maybe even make money off=20
them.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As far as avoiding a disaster like Enron, I =
don't have=20
good answers. Since I usually buy small immature companies, I think I am =
at less=20
risk, most are just not sophisticated enough for such a scam. And since =
all the=20
professionals (analysts, fund managers, banks, institutional investors) =
seem to=20
have missed the issues on Enron, I don't feel I lose much in buying =
stocks=20
without lots of analysts and funds behind it. One thing I had already =
been=20
paying more attention to is cash flow compared to earnings. If there is =
a huge=20
difference, especially if ROE is low, then I do further due diligence. =
But if a=20
company can phony up earnings, I guess they can phony up cash flow as =
well. And=20
I think the new accounting standards for reporting earnings will make it =
even=20
easier to fudge the numbers.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As for the affects of a financial collapse in =
Japan, that=20
is more difficult as it will be global. The G7 met this weekend, but I =
have not=20
read any reports on what they did. And the most important work will have =
been=20
done in secrecy and not reported. I did read a report from one of my=20
subscription services, a "think tank" kind of analysis, that suggests =
the way=20
for the world to deal with Japan is to isolate it until either it =
collapses and=20
takes the difficult steps to fix the problems, or somehow begins =
fundamental=20
changes prior to collapsing. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>For my investing, I am trying to avoid any =
foreign=20
exposure, thus limiting currency exchange rate risk. I also only buy =
small=20
companies, thus further limiting my global exposure. I avoid all Asian =
and Latin=20
America (due the collapse in Argentina) exposure possible, the most I =
may have=20
is minor (in my 401K funds). I am still fully invested, including on =
margin, but=20
not obeying many sell rules. I have given up about half my net gain for =
the year=20
to date, but still well ahead of money market rates, and having fun. My =
401K=20
plans to add a small cap fund to the list available, and I will move =
money there=20
from my mid and large cap growth funds. I have about 15% cash in my =
401K, that=20
is the only investing cash left. I also maintain a substantial savings, =
in=20
excess of six months requirements.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Right now, I read "M" as saying we are in a =
downtrend.=20
Even if we get some follow thru next week from Friday's gains, I am not=20
convinced it will be sufficient to reverse the overall trend. So =
some=20
selective shorting may be reasonable if you know what you are doing. =
Best bet=20
right now is let your remaining stocks tell you when to exit, then =
remain in=20
cash.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As for the safety of money markets, I have no =
information=20
to suggest any reason for concern. Certainly, it's not as safe as just =
putting=20
the money in an FDIC insured bank account, but it does pay a little =
better=20
interest rate.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I am not embarrassed to admit I =
didn't anticipate the=20
strength in gold and gold stocks over the past two weeks. Gold has been =
in a=20
bear market for something like 20 years, and since it doesn't pay =
interest, your=20
money over that time would have done better in a bond fund or hedge fund =
or even=20
a money market. The last time gold surged over $300, all the gold =
touters were=20
yelling, Bull Market, Bull Market. Lasted a few weeks while the gold =
producers=20
sold futures into the strength, then gradually dropped right back down =
to prior=20
levels. Don't know if that will be the case again, depends on whether =
the buying=20
continues. Every gold stock I looked at this weekend was already well =
extended.=20
If I found one that was not, I would be dubious of it.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I hope this helps a little, maybe some of the =
other=20
members can add more ideas to this on what we should be =
doing.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dxjadair@brightok.net =
href=3D"mailto:xjadair@brightok.net">John=20
Adair</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 10, 2002 =
1:07=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] Worley's =
W W -=20
Japan and TYC</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle17><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dnavy=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">The=20
news just keeps getting worse. My most respected sources are all very=20
depressed with much doom and gloom. Ok I can accept that but how about =
some=20
talk on what to do. Most seem to indicate catastrophe is Just around =
the=20
corner yet you keep investing. Does anyone think gold is the way to =
go. Are=20
shorts indicated. I don=92t think so. How about some suggestions on =
protecting=20
our money If we really believe things are as bad as indicated My =
friend <SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Fred Richards <SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>says fannie and ginney are in =
over=20
their heads and the<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> =20
</SPAN>government has said to quit making marginal loans. Where are we =
really?=20
<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Are money markets=20
safe?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle17><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dnavy=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B><SPAN =
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">On=20
Behalf Of </SPAN></B>Katherine Malm<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Saturday, February 09, =
2002 11:32=20
AM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's =
W W -=20
Japan and TYC</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black">Hi=20
Rolf,</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black">I'm in a bit of=20
a rush today, so more details later. But, the biggest "threat" to the =
rest of=20
the world if Japan goes down is "exported deflation." Imagine a world =
where=20
Japan floods the market with autos at 1/2 the price of an American =
made model.=20
US business has to "match" to be able to sell their products. I'll =
give a more=20
detailed example of the domino effect that has on the US economy =
tomorrow when=20
I have some time.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">Katherine</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black =
1.5pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none">
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">----- =
Original=20
Message ----- </SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; PADDING-BOTTOM: =
0in; MARGIN-LEFT: 39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; =
BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; =
mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; =
mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 4.0pt"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<DIV style=3D"font-color: black">From:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <A=20
title=3Drolfh@mindspring.com href=3D"mailto:rolfh@mindspring.com">rolf =
hertenstein</A> </SPAN></FONT></DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT>
<P></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">To:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Sent:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> Saturday, =
February=20
09, 2002 10:24 AM</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Subject:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
Worley's W W - Japan and TYC</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">I'm just =
trying to=20
understand a couple issues raised a bit better.</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Read the =
Erdman=20
article on Japan, Tom's comments on it and his WWW =
Japan</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">comments. What=20
real impact would a Japanese crash have on our =
economy?</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Do U.S. =
banks have=20
big loans to Japanese corps? Our exports to Japan=20
aren't</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">so large =
that a=20
slow-down in exports to Japan would hurt us, or would they? =20
With</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">a falling =
yen would=20
Japanese exports get so cheap that nobody would buy =
our</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">goods?</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">As for =
TYC, even=20
though they didn't announce (press releases) all acquisitions,=20
</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">they were =
still=20
properly reported in quarterly reports I believe. So this is =
sloppy PR=20
</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">perhaps =
but nothing=20
wrong (illegal or misleading) me thinks. =20
Correct?</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> Rolf</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY>=
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