Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MTH
Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 09:36:50 -0600
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00E0_01C1B604.4B6DDC60 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Fred, Well, all I can say is "amen to that." I've been one of few on the list = lately who has seen the homebuilder group as a house of cards. As with = most debt structured markets/businesses (ENE's a great example), all it = takes is a few "losing faith" and the stack begins to crumble. It = happens with currencies, it happens with businesses, it could easily = happen to the home building markets---*especially* when the low end is = affected.=20 BTW, welcome to the list. A question for you to go with your homebuilding comment. Wouldn't this = be a good example as to why a person would not necessarily want to troll = for high RS/EPS/GRS stocks???? Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Fred Richards=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 9:29 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] MTH A word of caution about home building from the Chapman letter this = week. "If you can believe this, the White House has warned Fannie Mae and = Freddie Mac, that they may be taking on too much risk in sub prime loans. Debt = for both enterprises rose from $518 billion in September 1997 to $1.26 = trillion at the end of September 2001, an annualized growth of 25% a year. The mortgage asset portfolios have increased 150% in dollar volume and = their guarantees of mortgage-backed securities increased 40%. The Bush = budget said increased guarantee volume and retained portfolios imply increased = credit and interest rate exposure. Furthermore, the budget added, the hedging transactions transform credit or interest-rate risk into counter party = risk (the risk that the counter party of a hedging transaction fails to = honor the contract). Thus, the GSE's management of counter party risk is of = increasing importance. This is of extraordinary significance. This means the = Treasury sees real counter party failures coming on the heals of Enron. It is = an edict to Fannie and Freddie, from which 38% of new loans have been sub prime, to stop writing and insuring them. That means housing starts = and sales will fall as well as prices. There will no longer be a push from = the bottom to buy the low cost house to propel its current owners upward. = Then the failures begin, and the losses for these GSE's, then the major = fall in housing prices. It's all right here. If you ever wanted to sell do it = now, the game is over. That also means all that liquidity supplied to the = housing market, that ended up reducing debt and supplying liquidity is at an = end. This is a momentous financial event. Take advantage of it, sell real = estate. This, of course, will adversely affect the stock market and expedite deflation leading to deeper recession because not only will the real = estate bubble break but also the debt bomb will explode and in turn, the = derivative debacle will follow." -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:49 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MTH Hi Harbol, I continue to see strength in the home builders group, and suspect it = will be sustained for most of this year at least. I have several in my VR = Fund, and all doing well, OHB (small cap, thinly traded) already hit another = new high this morning on volume. With MTH, I would be cautious as the earnings forecast consensus at = DGO indicates +8% this year and +15% next year. Most of the home builders = I have looked at have much stronger forecasts. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message ----- From: "HARBOL GAURANG" <morsandbihari@hotmail.com> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 9:25 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] MTH > Hi, > This is my frist post to this group. I've been frequenting this = group for > quite sometime. > > For MTH I'm seeing a long cup (starting from July 01) with 3weeks of = very > tight handle. During the bottom and uptrend, there are more nos of = up volume > weeks where price is also up. > > Fundamentals looks good. > %EPS Chg recent quarters: 26.9%, 33.0% > %Rev Chg recent quarters: 44.5%, 52.5% > > But %EPS Projected CFY =3D 8.92 and %EPS Projected NFY =3D 14.89 > > Thanks, > Harbol > > _________________________________________________________________ > MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: > http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_00E0_01C1B604.4B6DDC60 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4807.2300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV>Hi Fred,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Well, all I can say is "amen to that." I've been one of few on the = list=20 lately who has seen the homebuilder group as a house of cards. As = with most=20 debt structured markets/businesses (ENE's a great example), all it takes = is a=20 few "losing faith" and the stack begins to crumble. It happens with = currencies,=20 it happens with businesses, it could easily happen to the home building=20 markets---*especially* when the low end is affected. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>BTW, welcome to the list.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>A question for you to go with your homebuilding comment. Wouldn't = this be a=20 good example as to why a person would not necessarily want to troll for = high=20 RS/EPS/GRS stocks????</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Katherine</DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dadrich@gte.net href=3D"mailto:adrich@gte.net">Fred = Richards</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, February 15, 2002 = 9:29=20 AM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] = MTH</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV>A word of caution about home building from the Chapman = letter=20 this week.<BR><BR>"If you can believe this, the White House has warned = Fannie=20 Mae and Freddie<BR>Mac, that they may be taking on too much risk in = sub prime=20 loans. Debt for<BR>both enterprises rose from $518 billion in = September 1997=20 to $1.26 trillion<BR>at the end of September 2001, an annualized = growth of 25%=20 a year. The<BR>mortgage asset portfolios have increased 150% in dollar = volume=20 and their<BR>guarantees of mortgage-backed securities increased 40%. = The Bush=20 budget said<BR>increased guarantee volume and retained portfolios = imply=20 increased credit<BR>and interest rate exposure. Furthermore, the = budget added,=20 the hedging<BR>transactions transform credit or interest-rate risk = into=20 counter party risk<BR>(the risk that the counter party of a hedging=20 transaction fails to honor the<BR>contract). Thus, the GSE's = management of=20 counter party risk is of increasing<BR>importance. This is of = extraordinary=20 significance. This means the Treasury<BR>sees real counter party = failures=20 coming on the heals of Enron. It is an<BR>edict to Fannie and Freddie, = from=20 which 38% of new loans have been sub<BR>prime, to stop writing and = insuring=20 them. That means housing starts and<BR>sales will fall as well as = prices.=20 There will no longer be a push from the<BR>bottom to buy the low cost = house to=20 propel its current owners upward. Then<BR>the failures begin, and the = losses=20 for these GSE's, then the major fall in<BR>housing prices. It's all = right=20 here. If you ever wanted to sell do it now,<BR>the game is over. That = also=20 means all that liquidity supplied to the housing<BR>market, that ended = up=20 reducing debt and supplying liquidity is at an end.<BR>This is a = momentous=20 financial event. Take advantage of it, sell real estate.<BR>This, of = course,=20 will adversely affect the stock market and expedite<BR>deflation = leading to=20 deeper recession because not only will the real estate<BR>bubble break = but=20 also the debt bomb will explode and in turn, the derivative<BR>debacle = will=20 follow."<BR><BR>-----Original Message-----<BR>From: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com</A><BR>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On=20 Behalf Of Tom Worley<BR>Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:49 AM<BR>To: = <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= <BR>Subject:=20 Re: [CANSLIM] MTH<BR><BR><BR>Hi Harbol,<BR><BR>I continue to see = strength in=20 the home builders group, and suspect it will<BR>be sustained for most = of this=20 year at least. I have several in my VR Fund,<BR>and all doing well, = OHB (small=20 cap, thinly traded) already hit another new<BR>high this morning on=20 volume.<BR><BR>With MTH, I would be cautious as the earnings forecast=20 consensus at DGO<BR>indicates +8% this year and +15% next year. Most = of the=20 home builders I have<BR>looked at have much stronger = forecasts.<BR><BR>Tom=20 Worley<BR><A = href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20 TexWorley<BR>----- Original Message -----<BR>From: "HARBOL GAURANG" = <<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:morsandbihari@hotmail.com">morsandbihari@hotmail.com</A>&g= t;<BR>To:=20 <<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= ><BR>Sent:=20 Friday, February 15, 2002 9:25 AM<BR>Subject: [CANSLIM] = MTH<BR><BR><BR>>=20 Hi,<BR>> This is my frist post to this group. I've been frequenting = this=20 group for<BR>> quite sometime.<BR>><BR>> For MTH I'm seeing a = long=20 cup (starting from July 01) with 3weeks of very<BR>> tight handle. = During=20 the bottom and uptrend, there are more nos of up<BR>volume<BR>> = weeks where=20 price is also up.<BR>><BR>> Fundamentals looks good.<BR>> = %EPS Chg=20 recent quarters: 26.9%, 33.0%<BR>> %Rev Chg recent quarters: 44.5%, = 52.5%<BR>><BR>> But %EPS Projected CFY =3D 8.92 and %EPS = Projected NFY =3D=20 14.89<BR>><BR>> Thanks,<BR>> Harbol<BR>><BR>>=20 = _________________________________________________________________<BR>>= MSN=20 Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos:<BR>> <A=20 = href=3D"http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx">http://photos.msn.c= om/support/worldwide.aspx</A><BR>><BR>><BR>>=20 -<BR>> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>>= ; -In=20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> -"unsubscribe=20 canslim". Do not use quotes in your=20 email.<BR>><BR>><BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, = email=20 "<A = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In= =20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe = canslim". =20 Do not use quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To = subscribe/unsubscribe,=20 email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_00E0_01C1B604.4B6DDC60-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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