Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 18:48:14 -0500
Previous Article (by Author): Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates "Tom Worley"
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0054_01C1B71A.7D37B4C0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0055_01C1B71A.7D37B4C0" - ------=_NextPart_001_0055_01C1B71A.7D37B4C0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MORE ENRON NEWS A total of 20,795 employees of Enron were in the 401K plan, and it is = estimated that about 63% of the plan was in Enron stock. The loss is in = excess of one billion dollars. It is estimated that most had already = lost 70 to 90% in the several months prior to the three week freeze = imposed while they changed plan administrators.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- EARNINGS For the first time in 15 months, analysts are raising more earnings = estimates than cutting them. The total raised was 51% for the week ended = 1/25/02.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ACCOUNTING REPERCUSSIONS Krispy Kreme, which had planned to shift some of its debt using off = balance sheet financing, has now announced it will use conventional = financing. Then there is Newmont Mining (NEM) which got hurt Monday = after Prudential downgraded it, saying "Several of the deposits that = Newmont classifies as reserves or resources appear suspect". Want to = guess who their auditor is??=20 I expect that eventually accounting firms will be banned from doing = consulting business with the same companies they audit. But meantime, = most are already changing their practice to follow this. And any company = with any kind of accounting problem is suffering the hot spotlight of = the media. Latest to surface include IBM, WCOM, NVDA, AFAM. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN Total of bad bank loan debt now being estimated at $1.1 trillion, and = that's given their generous interpretation of what is a non-performing = loan. Govt debt from deficit spending is already 130% of GDP. And still = the Nikkei comes roaring back to break 10,000 again, all on hopes that = the govt is finally moving to bail out the banks. Just operational last = Friday is the Banks Shareholding Purchasing Corp (BSPC) funded with $15 = billion to spend to March 31, and another $15 billion for the next = fiscal year. Money comes from over 100 financial institutions, and will = be used to buy stocks from the banks rather than have the selling = pressure hitting the markets. Sounds like a shell game to me, moving = losses from the banks to BSPC. And still unclear to me is whether the = sale to BSPC will be done at current market prices, or at original cost = basis. I just don't see the benefit of a financial institution funding = BSPC to buy its own portfolio. But somehow the Japanese see this as a = good thing. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ECONOMICS Retails sales slipped a little (minus 0.2%) in January due expected weak = car sales (told you late last year they were cannibalizing future = sales), but the figure beat expectations for sales less cars, rising = 1.2%. Both beat expectations of minus 0.3% and plus 0.4%. In addition, = December figures were revised upward from a negative 0.1% to plus 0.2% = and plus 0.7%. The combo of revising all data for December up and into = positive territory, along with two straight months of strong sales = (except for autos) is a compelling trend. And even the decline in auto = sales is soft and expected, given all the zero interest loan incentive = plans late last year. New unemployment claims fell a little instead of rising a little as = expected, further pointing to stabilization in the employment sector. Overall inventories were down in December 0.4%, just under expectations = of a 0.5% drop. But excluding autos (which rose 0.1%, another sign of = just how sales were cannibalized late last year) inventories were down = 0.6%. This was the 11th straight month of inventory declines. Producer Price Index (PPI) beat expectations (overall up 0.1%, expected = was 0.2 to 0.3%, and core was down 0.1% against expectations of a rise = of 0.1%) continuing to signal no inflation, at least at the wholesale = level. For all of 2001, the PPI dropped 2.6%, biggest drop for 12 months = since Feb '49-'50. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" Don't know if everyone had a week like mine, but I felt pretty bloodied = and battered by the time Friday's trading was over. Not a good week for = growth, especially for the small and micro cap stocks. Despite that, for = the week, the DOW 30, S&P500, and the Russell 2000 managed to close = slightly higher for the week. And NASDAQ finished less than a percent = down. Gold began a slide back below $300, no surprise to me who doesn't = believe this was anything more than a spike in a continuing bear market = for the precious metals.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES As always, Bx means a chart where I see the stock in a flat line "B"ase = of "x" weeks duration. If I see a specific pattern such as a cup & = handle, double bottom, LLUR, etc I will say so. And this review is with = all my blinders and personal biases removed, they are not stocks I might = personally consider buying. For the most part, I am only considering the = prior 6-9 months of the chart. Population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend appears to be stable to = slightly larger. AMWD - B2, but may be trying to reestablish its LLUR patter from last = year ATK - c&h, triple bottom, handle two weeks long with price spike on = volume Friday approaching pivot BPRX - b/o from an 8 week consolidation appears to have failed BRO - B2 CDWC - B3 CECO - B2 DHI - B3, another home builder DHOM - B2, another home builder, in my fund DKWD - rough LLUR DLX - LLUR EPIQ - 9 week consolidation base, owned and in fund FCEA - B8 FCN - the beautiful LLUR pattern may be on its last legs FLIR - possible c&h FMAR - B6 GFF - LLUR GTK - B2 HOV - B7, another home builder HRB - LLUR MBFI - B6 MCL - low priced LLUR NOBL - consolidation, great earnings growth, in my fund OVRL - B3, I own and in my VR fund, EPS 49 RMCI - c&h, owned and in fund SHLR - B2, another home builder SNS - B5 STJ - B3 SWTX - B6, low priced SYPR - LLUR URBN - ascending base?? WLS - hummm??, in my fund, another home builder WSH - B2 Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0055_01C1B71A.7D37B4C0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2713.1100" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>MORE ENRON NEWS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>A total of 20,795 employees of Enron were in the = 401K=20 plan, and it is estimated that about 63% of the plan was in Enron stock. = The=20 loss is in excess of one billion dollars. It is estimated that most had = already=20 lost 70 to 90% in the several months prior to the three week freeze = imposed=20 while they changed plan administrators.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>EARNINGS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>For the first time in 15 months, analysts are = raising more=20 earnings estimates than cutting them. The total raised was 51% for the = week=20 ended 1/25/02.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ACCOUNTING = REPERCUSSIONS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Krispy Kreme, which had planned to shift some of = its debt=20 using off balance sheet financing, has now announced it will use = conventional=20 financing. Then there is Newmont Mining (NEM) which got hurt Monday = after=20 Prudential downgraded it, saying "Several of the deposits that Newmont=20 classifies as reserves or resources appear suspect". Want to guess who = their=20 auditor is?? </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I expect that eventually accounting firms will = be banned=20 from doing consulting business with the same companies they audit. But = meantime,=20 most are already changing their practice to follow this. And any company = with=20 any kind of accounting problem is suffering the hot spotlight of the = media.=20 Latest to surface include IBM, WCOM, NVDA, AFAM.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Total of bad bank loan debt now being estimated = at $1.1=20 trillion, and that's given their generous interpretation of what is a=20 non-performing loan. Govt debt from deficit spending is already 130% of = GDP. And=20 still the Nikkei comes roaring back to break 10,000 again, all on hopes = that the=20 govt is finally moving to bail out the banks. Just operational last = Friday is=20 the Banks Shareholding Purchasing Corp (BSPC) funded with $15 billion to = spend=20 to March 31, and another $15 billion for the next fiscal year. Money = comes from=20 over 100 financial institutions, and will be used to buy stocks from the = banks=20 rather than have the selling pressure hitting the markets. Sounds = like a=20 shell game to me, moving losses from the banks to BSPC. And still = unclear to me=20 is whether the sale to BSPC will be done at current market prices, or at = original cost basis. I just don't see the benefit of a financial = institution=20 funding BSPC to buy its own portfolio. But somehow the Japanese see this = as a=20 good thing.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>Retails sales slipped a little (minus 0.2%) in January due expected = weak=20 car sales (told you late last year they were cannibalizing future = sales), but=20 the figure beat expectations for sales less cars, rising 1.2%. Both beat = expectations of minus 0.3% and plus 0.4%. In addition, December figures = were=20 revised upward from a negative 0.1% to plus 0.2% and plus 0.7%. The = combo of=20 revising all data for December up and into positive territory, along = with two=20 straight months of strong sales (except for autos) is a compelling = trend. And=20 even the decline in auto sales is soft and expected, given all the zero = interest=20 loan incentive plans late last year.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>New unemployment claims fell a little instead of rising a little as = expected, further pointing to stabilization in the employment = sector.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Overall inventories were down in December 0.4%, just under = expectations of=20 a 0.5% drop. But excluding autos (which rose 0.1%, another sign of just = how=20 sales were cannibalized late last year) inventories were down 0.6%. This = was the=20 11th straight month of inventory declines.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Producer Price Index (PPI) beat expectations (overall up 0.1%, = expected was=20 0.2 to 0.3%, and core was down 0.1% against expectations of a rise of = 0.1%)=20 continuing to signal no inflation, at least at the wholesale level. For = all of=20 2001, the PPI dropped 2.6%, biggest drop for 12 months since Feb = '49-'50.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>Don't know if everyone had a week like mine, but I felt pretty = bloodied and=20 battered by the time Friday's trading was over. Not a good week for = growth,=20 especially for the small and micro cap stocks. Despite that, for the = week, the=20 DOW 30, S&P500, and the Russell 2000 managed to close slightly = higher for=20 the week. And NASDAQ finished less than a percent down. Gold began a = slide back=20 below $300, no surprise to me who doesn't believe this was anything more = than a=20 spike in a continuing bear market for the precious metals. </DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>As always, Bx means a chart where I see the stock in a flat line = "B"ase of=20 "x" weeks duration. If I see a specific pattern such as a cup & = handle,=20 double bottom, LLUR, etc I will say so. And this review is with all my = blinders=20 and personal biases removed, they are not stocks I might personally = consider=20 buying. For the most part, I am only considering the prior 6-9 months of = the=20 chart.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend appears to be = stable to=20 slightly larger.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>AMWD - B2, but may be trying to reestablish its LLUR patter from = last=20 year</DIV> <DIV>ATK - c&h, triple bottom, handle two weeks long with price = spike on=20 volume Friday approaching pivot</DIV> <DIV>BPRX - b/o from an 8 week consolidation appears to have = failed</DIV> <DIV>BRO - B2</DIV> <DIV>CDWC - B3</DIV> <DIV>CECO - B2</DIV> <DIV>DHI - B3, another home builder</DIV> <DIV>DHOM - B2, another home builder, in my fund</DIV> <DIV>DKWD - rough LLUR</DIV> <DIV>DLX - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>EPIQ - 9 week consolidation base, owned and in fund</DIV> <DIV>FCEA - B8</DIV> <DIV>FCN - the beautiful LLUR pattern may be on its last legs</DIV> <DIV>FLIR - possible c&h</DIV> <DIV>FMAR - B6</DIV> <DIV>GFF - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>GTK - B2</DIV> <DIV>HOV - B7, another home builder</DIV> <DIV>HRB - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>MBFI - B6</DIV> <DIV>MCL - low priced LLUR</DIV> <DIV>NOBL - consolidation, great earnings growth, in my fund</DIV> <DIV>OVRL - B3, I own and in my VR fund, EPS 49</DIV> <DIV>RMCI - c&h, owned and in fund</DIV> <DIV>SHLR - B2, another home builder</DIV> <DIV>SNS - B5</DIV> <DIV>STJ - B3</DIV> <DIV>SWTX - B6, low priced</DIV> <DIV>SYPR - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>URBN - ascending base??</DIV> <DIV>WLS - hummm??, in my fund, another home builder</DIV> <DIV>WSH - B2</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Happy Hunting,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 = src=3D"cid:005301c1b744$660b4bc0$1ba08fd0@D73PS211"=20 align=3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20 TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_0055_01C1B71A.7D37B4C0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_0054_01C1B71A.7D37B4C0 Content-Type: image/gif; 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