Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 10:57:49 -0600
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0030_01C1B7A1.F045ABC0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Tom, Your comments about EPIQ as a "big winner" in the portfolio remind me of = comments I often hear from others when we have discussions about the big = winners in our portfolios. On one hand, it really bugs me to hear people = say "well, yeah, of course you had great returns, you had XXXX an = YYYY....you were just lucky." Excuse me? I found XXXX and YYYY using the = same methodical diligence I apply to all my buys. The difference is, = these guys never triggered sell rules like all the others. Last Fall, I = listened to a presentation by Kevin Marder, a hedge fund manager and a = CANSLIM-style investor. He said the same thing that I've heard from = other successful investors. "At the end of each year I give my = accountant a list of my trades for tax purposes. On that list are a = bunch of trades with very small losses. Also on that list are some = really big gains that were responsible for most of my returns for the = year. This happens every year without exception." On the other hand, a comment such as "you were just lucky" makes me = smile and nod in agreement, because I define luck as "being prepared = when the opportunity arises and being willing to seize it." Yes, big = winners are about luck in that sense. Finally, one of my favorite quotes = and one that always stays in view at my desk: "Opportunities are usually disguised as hard work, so most people don't = recognize them." --Anne Landers Here's to "big winners" and your continued "good luck"! Cheers, Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 3:34 PM Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Your memory is pretty good, altho I consider buying small caps as much closer to classic CANSLIM rules for "S" than IBD or WON currently = pushes. I wasn't losing money during the roaring bulls, just not making what I could. But that was not the fault of my application of CANSLIM, it was = a direct consequence of total neglect of my portfolio due dedication and = hours spent on my day job. But even with total neglect, I still managed = about 12% or so without trading, so at least better than a money market. You are correct also that EPIQ was a major contributor to my profits = in 2001, and I expect it to continue contributing in 2002. But I finished = the year with every stock I owned up for the year, and with minimal = trading. I only bought two new ones in 2001, the rest I had owned from prior = years. So far in 2002, I have added 6 new ones, and sold one (merger announced). = Altho three of the new ones are presently down, I am still up a little = overall. And having fun. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message ----- From: "esetser" <esetser@covad.net> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 11:01 AM Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Be careful here, Tom has his own special breed of CANSLIM, and it = seems that his returns have NOT been a good indicator of average returns in = the group. Unless I'm mistaken, Tom was losing money or breaking even = back in the roaring bull, so maybe it was just his turn!! Tom does at least the following different from my approach (just from memory): 1 - Microcaps only (below the minimum recommended by WON) (S?) 2 - Buys in the base before the breakout (Needs to because of 1) 3 - Doesn't use Industry Group Strength as a leader/laggard indicator = (I) 4 - Buys in all markets (M) >From my perspective, he violates the normal rules for S, I, and M. However, Tom does admit to this, and doesn't even generally post his selections due to these variations. Given the differences, I think it should be expected that Tom's = performance over a given year will vary from many of us. (And there is that one = stock that has appreciated several times his original investment that is impacting the results too!) One other note. From my perspective, Tom's value to the group is his willingness to take the time to review most anyone's suggestions and selections and give great detail in his responses. His general = approach may not follow CANSLIM exactly, but his postings to the group do = following WON quite closely. He is our master educator on the technique, and = gives a lot of time and effort to the group. FWIW, I ended up 2001 with about a 13% loss and am down about 6% more = this year so far. Presently, I am only 25% invested with one position. I = am not really responding on the group much, since I do not feel I have = the experience to short, and I am waiting for "M" to clear up before new purchases. At 11:36 AM 2/16/02 +0100, you wrote: >I think Tom bend only one rule --> stay out of the market if there is = a >downtrend in the overall market. > >But as I said, if you choose small caps and or IGs that are going up, = no >problem making money on the long side. >Just look on the builders or on the gold stocks latley ... > >BUT NEVER, NEVER buy stocks when the market and the IG is down. >I have not seen one example where a member of the group does not = break down >then (besides its a small cap) as well. > >Some IGs are just setting up a bull market for its members no matter = what >the market is doing. > >> -----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht----- >> Von: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] >> Gesendet am: Saturday, February 16, 2002 6:19 AM >> An: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> While I routinely violate CANSLIM rules, nonetheless my entire = process is >heavily based in CANSLIM. And I netted 76% for the full year, so = yeah, I >made a net profit. >> >> Tom Worley >> stkguru@netside.net >> AIM: TexWorley >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: David Squires >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 12:11 AM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made lots of = $$ >last year, and profitable so far this year (including my fully = margined >account). >> >> >>fully invested year round, made lots of $$ last year<< >> >> You were fully invested last year long and made a net profit? You >better call George Soros! BTW, is this even remotely CANSLIM. >> >> DSquires >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Tom Worley >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 10:47 PM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made lots = of $$ >last year, and profitable so far this year (including my fully = margined >account). >> >> Tom Worley >> stkguru@netside.net >> AIM: TexWorley >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Dan Forant >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:03 PM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> Of course it's absurd. If anyone's been in the market for the = past >year and hasn't shorted and made $$, they are either very lucky or = far >better than the average investor. There was no shortage of stocks to = short >in TC2000 and candlesticks. >> >> L8ter >> DanF >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Ian >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 11:13 AM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> I find it almost absurd that WON discourages shorting. = Almost all >of WON's ideas appear to have originated with Jesse Livermore, who = made the >bulk of his money on the short side. The rules for selling a big = CANSLIM >winner make for perfect short candidates. Although selling a failed >breakout as it returns into its base is NOT typically a good short >candidate. JMHO. >> >> Ian >> >> >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Rob Miller >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 6:40 AM >> Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks worth = buying. > However, my short list is overflowing. The only moderately = attractive >stocks I see on the long side are those already in an uptrend that = are >riding their lower channel. >> >> Is shorting considered off limits for this list? I know = that >WON discourages it, but he also claimed to make good money from = shorts in >HTMMIS. As I understand it, he discourages it as a medium for the = masses, >nor necessarily for everyone. >> >> Rob >> << Datei: ATT00014.htm >> - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_0030_01C1B7A1.F045ABC0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4807.2300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV>Hi Tom,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Your comments about EPIQ as a "big winner" in the portfolio remind = me of=20 comments I often hear from others when we have discussions about the big = winners=20 in our portfolios. On one hand, it really bugs me to hear people = say "well,=20 yeah, of course you had great returns, you had XXXX an YYYY....you were = just=20 lucky." Excuse me? I found XXXX and YYYY using the same methodical = diligence I=20 apply to all my buys. The difference is, these guys never triggered sell = rules=20 like all the others. Last Fall, I listened to a presentation by Kevin = Marder, a=20 hedge fund manager and a CANSLIM-style investor. He said the same thing = that=20 I've heard from other successful investors. "At the end of each year I = give my=20 accountant a list of my trades for tax purposes. On that list are a = bunch of=20 trades with very small losses. Also on that list are some really big = gains that=20 were responsible for most of my returns for the year. This happens every = year=20 without exception."</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>On the other hand, a comment such as "you were just lucky" makes me = smile=20 and nod in agreement, because I define luck as "being prepared when the=20 opportunity arises and being willing to seize it." Yes, big winners are = about=20 luck in that sense. Finally, one of my favorite quotes and one that = always stays=20 in view at my desk:</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>"Opportunities are usually disguised as hard work, so most people = don't=20 recognize them." --Anne Landers</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Here's to "big winners" and your continued "good luck"!</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV> <DIV>Katherine</DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dstkguru@netside.net href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">Tom = Worley</A>=20 </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 16, = 2002 3:34=20 PM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack = of Buy=20 Candidates</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV>Your memory is pretty good, altho I consider buying = small caps=20 as much<BR>closer to classic CANSLIM rules for "S" than IBD or WON = currently=20 pushes.<BR><BR>I wasn't losing money during the roaring bulls, just = not making=20 what I<BR>could. But that was not the fault of my application of = CANSLIM, it=20 was a<BR>direct consequence of total neglect of my portfolio due = dedication=20 and hours<BR>spent on my day job. But even with total neglect, I still = managed=20 about 12%<BR>or so without trading, so at least better than a money=20 market.<BR><BR>You are correct also that EPIQ was a major contributor = to my=20 profits in<BR>2001, and I expect it to continue contributing in 2002. = But I=20 finished the<BR>year with every stock I owned up for the year, and = with=20 minimal trading. I<BR>only bought two new ones in 2001, the rest I had = owned=20 from prior years. So<BR>far in 2002, I have added 6 new ones, and sold = one=20 (merger announced). Altho<BR>three of the new ones are presently down, = I am=20 still up a little overall.<BR>And having fun.<BR><BR>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20 TexWorley<BR>----- Original Message -----<BR>From: "esetser" <<A=20 href=3D"mailto:esetser@covad.net">esetser@covad.net</A>><BR>To: = <<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= ><BR>Sent:=20 Saturday, February 16, 2002 11:01 AM<BR>Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] = Lack of Buy=20 Candidates<BR><BR><BR>Be careful here, Tom has his own special breed = of=20 CANSLIM, and it seems<BR>that his returns have NOT been a good = indicator of=20 average returns in the<BR>group. Unless I'm mistaken, Tom was = losing=20 money or breaking even back in<BR>the roaring bull, so maybe it was = just his=20 turn!!<BR><BR>Tom does at least the following different from my = approach (just=20 from<BR>memory):<BR><BR>1 - Microcaps only (below the minimum = recommended by=20 WON) (S?)<BR>2 - Buys in the base before the breakout (Needs to = because of=20 1)<BR>3 - Doesn't use Industry Group Strength as a leader/laggard = indicator=20 (I)<BR>4 - Buys in all markets (M)<BR><BR>>From my perspective, he = violates=20 the normal rules for S, I, and M.<BR>However, Tom does admit to this, = and=20 doesn't even generally post his<BR>selections due to these=20 variations.<BR><BR>Given the differences, I think it should be = expected that=20 Tom's performance<BR>over a given year will vary from many of = us. (And=20 there is that one stock<BR>that has appreciated several times his = original=20 investment that is<BR>impacting the results too!)<BR><BR>One other = note. =20 From my perspective, Tom's value to the group is his<BR>willingness to = take=20 the time to review most anyone's suggestions and<BR>selections and = give great=20 detail in his responses. His general approach<BR>may not follow = CANSLIM=20 exactly, but his postings to the group do following<BR>WON quite=20 closely. He is our master educator on the technique, and gives = a<BR>lot=20 of time and effort to the group.<BR><BR>FWIW, I ended up 2001 with = about a 13%=20 loss and am down about 6% more this<BR>year so far. Presently, I = am only=20 25% invested with one position. I am<BR>not really = responding on=20 the group much, since I do not feel I have the<BR>experience to short, = and I=20 am waiting for "M" to clear up before = new<BR>purchases.<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>At=20 11:36 AM 2/16/02 +0100, you wrote:<BR>>I think Tom bend only one = rule=20 --> stay out of the market if there is a<BR>>downtrend in the = overall=20 market.<BR>><BR>>But as I said, if you choose small caps and or = IGs that=20 are going up, no<BR>>problem making money on the long = side.<BR>>Just=20 look on the builders or on the gold stocks latley = ...<BR>><BR>>BUT=20 NEVER, NEVER buy stocks when the market and the IG is down.<BR>>I = have not=20 seen one example where a member of the group does not break = down<BR>>then=20 (besides its a small cap) as well.<BR>><BR>>Some IGs are just = setting up=20 a bull market for its members no matter what<BR>>the market is=20 doing.<BR>><BR>>> -----Urspr=FCngliche = Nachricht-----<BR>>> Von:=20 Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net]<BR>>> Gesendet am: = Saturday,=20 February 16, 2002 6:19 AM<BR>>> An: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= <BR>>>=20 Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates<BR>>><BR>>> = While I=20 routinely violate CANSLIM rules, nonetheless my entire process=20 is<BR>>heavily based in CANSLIM. And I netted 76% for the full = year, so=20 yeah, I<BR>>made a net profit.<BR>>><BR>>> Tom=20 Worley<BR>>> <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>>> = AIM:=20 TexWorley<BR>>> ----- Original Message=20 -----<BR>>> From: David = Squires<BR>>> To:=20 <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= <BR>>> =20 Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 12:11 AM<BR>>> = Subject:=20 Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20 Candidates<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>> haven't = shorted in=20 years, fully invested year round, made lots of $$<BR>>last year, = and=20 profitable so far this year (including my fully=20 margined<BR>>account).<BR>>><BR>>> = >>fully=20 invested year round, made lots of $$ last=20 year<<<BR>>><BR>>> You were fully = invested last=20 year long and made a net profit? You<BR>>better call George Soros! = BTW, is=20 this even remotely CANSLIM.<BR>>><BR>>> =20 DSquires<BR>>> ----- Original Message=20 -----<BR>>> From: Tom=20 Worley<BR>>> To: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= <BR>>> =20 Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 10:47 = PM<BR>>> =20 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20 Candidates<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>> = haven't=20 shorted in years, fully invested year round, made lots of = $$<BR>>last year,=20 and profitable so far this year (including my fully=20 = margined<BR>>account).<BR>>><BR>>> = Tom=20 Worley<BR>>> <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>>>&n= bsp; =20 AIM: TexWorley<BR>>> ----- = Original=20 Message -----<BR>>> From: = Dan=20 Forant<BR>>> To: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= <BR>>> =20 Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:03=20 PM<BR>>> Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM] Lack=20 of Buy=20 = Candidates<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>> &nb= sp; =20 Of course it's absurd. If anyone's been in the market for the = past<BR>>year=20 and hasn't shorted and made $$, they are either very lucky or=20 far<BR>>better than the average investor. There was no shortage of = stocks=20 to short<BR>>in TC2000 and=20 = candlesticks.<BR>>><BR>>> = =20 L8ter<BR>>> =20 DanF<BR>>> ----- = Original Message=20 -----<BR>>> = From:=20 Ian<BR>>> To: <A = = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= <BR>>> =20 Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 11:13=20 AM<BR>>> = Subject: Re:=20 [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20 = Candidates<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>> &nb= sp; =20 I find it almost absurd that WON discourages shorting. Almost = all<BR>>of=20 WON's ideas appear to have originated with Jesse Livermore, who made=20 the<BR>>bulk of his money on the short side. The rules for selling = a big=20 CANSLIM<BR>>winner make for perfect short candidates. Although = selling a=20 failed<BR>>breakout as it returns into its base is NOT typically a = good=20 short<BR>>candidate.=20 = JMHO.<BR>>><BR>>> &n= bsp;=20 = Ian<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>><BR>>> &nbs= p; =20 ----- Original Message=20 = - -----<BR>>> &n= bsp;=20 From: Rob=20 = Miller<BR>>> &= nbsp;=20 To: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= <BR>>> = Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 6:40=20 = AM<BR>>>  = ;=20 Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20 = Candidates<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>> &nb= sp; =20 Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks worth = buying.<BR>>=20 However, my short list is overflowing. The only moderately=20 attractive<BR>>stocks I see on the long side are those already in = an=20 uptrend that are<BR>>riding their lower=20 = channel.<BR>>><BR>>>  = ; =20 Is shorting considered off limits for this list? I know = that<BR>>WON=20 discourages it, but he also claimed to make good money from shorts=20 in<BR>>HTMMIS. As I understand it, he discourages it as a = medium for=20 the masses,<BR>>nor necessarily for=20 = everyone.<BR>>><BR>>> &nbs= p; =20 Rob<BR>>> << Datei: ATT00014.htm=20 >><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email.<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0030_01C1B7A1.F045ABC0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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