Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Andreas Himmelreich <judgejimmy@web.de>
Subject: AW: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 14:20:50 +0100
Next Article (by Subject): Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates "Katherine Malm"
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DSquires, Tom and Katherine covered the part of stating trading results. I would like to respond the "violating of rules" subject. For me, there is not such a thing as violating rules. I use about 5 different methods (and only one of them is canslim) which = are=20 parts of the overall system. The key to success is to know: 1. In which market phase are we in (in which sector) 2. Which method works the best for the market phases (of the sectors) 3. The discipline apply your system 1:1 without second guessing Even guys like David Ryan (a successful trader working (or worked) for=20 WON) bends Canslim rules (he disagrees on the PE Ratio with WON). The thing with canslim is that it does work only in very limited time=20 frames, at least this counts for the last two years. If good bull = markets=20 do not return for some time, "Canslim pure" is not the method you want = to=20 have. Some of the stuff out of CANSLIM is even terribly outdated (Money=20 Management, fixed 8% rule) and I do think one should not use at all. On = the=20 other hand WON is one of the best sources to time the market. A method like Canslim is a start, not more. It helps you to understand = and=20 gives a base for discussion, the tools you play with. The key is to understand why Canslim works, and why it can not work all = the=20 time. The main question is: Is this discussion group about Canslim pure, or is = Canslim just a base and we discuss other stuff as well (like we did on=20 sector rotation, IG Buy signals, or beeing in before the breakout, = shorting=20 etc.). I think and hope that we are not canslim pure. I mean what do you want do discuss in times like that (where WON says = stay=20 100% in Cash). What money market fund is the best? Best Regards Andreas > -----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht----- > Von: David Squires [SMTP:dcsquires1@cox.net] > Gesendet am: Monday, February 18, 2002 3:46 AM > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Betreff: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > > >>Your comments about EPIQ as a "big winner" in the portfolio remind = me=20 of comments I often hear from others when we have discussions about the = big=20 winners in our portfolios. On one hand, it really bugs me to hear people = say "well, yeah, of course you had great returns, you had XXXX an=20 YYYY....you were just lucky." Excuse me? I found XXXX and YYYY using the = same methodical diligence I apply to all my buys. The difference is, = these=20 guys never triggered sell rules like all the others. Last Fall, I = listened=20 to a presentation by Kevin Marder, a hedge fund manager and a = CANSLIM-style=20 investor. He said the same thing that I've heard from other successful=20 investors. "At the end of each year I give my accountant a list of my=20 trades for tax purposes. On that list are a bunch of trades with very = small=20 losses. Also on that list are some really big gains that were = responsible=20 for most of my returns for the year. This happens every year without=20 exception."<< > > Katherine, > > You are a true gem...my hat is off to you and eye open to everything = you=20 write...from my experience....you indeed "get it". However, I'm not so = sure=20 Tom should be cast in the light of Kevin Marder. What's the point of=20 telling everyone what you netted last year??......it's a totally=20 unverifiable assertion and only fodder for ones online ego. Spare me. It = still amazes me the proclaimed master of the CANSLIM list,...."routinely = violates CANSLIM rules" and everyone just sits there. I guess everyone's = numb from a 2 year bear raid. > > DSquires > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Katherine Malm > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 10:57 AM > Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > > > Hi Tom, > > Your comments about EPIQ as a "big winner" in the portfolio remind = me=20 of comments I often hear from others when we have discussions about the = big=20 winners in our portfolios. On one hand, it really bugs me to hear people = say "well, yeah, of course you had great returns, you had XXXX an=20 YYYY....you were just lucky." Excuse me? I found XXXX and YYYY using the = same methodical diligence I apply to all my buys. The difference is, = these=20 guys never triggered sell rules like all the others. Last Fall, I = listened=20 to a presentation by Kevin Marder, a hedge fund manager and a = CANSLIM-style=20 investor. He said the same thing that I've heard from other successful=20 investors. "At the end of each year I give my accountant a list of my=20 trades for tax purposes. On that list are a bunch of trades with very = small=20 losses. Also on that list are some really big gains that were = responsible=20 for most of my returns for the year. This happens every year without=20 exception." > > On the other hand, a comment such as "you were just lucky" makes me=20 smile and nod in agreement, because I define luck as "being prepared = when=20 the opportunity arises and being willing to seize it." Yes, big winners = are=20 about luck in that sense. Finally, one of my favorite quotes and one = that=20 always stays in view at my desk: > > "Opportunities are usually disguised as hard work, so most people = don't=20 recognize them." --Anne Landers > > Here's to "big winners" and your continued "good luck"! > > Cheers, > Katherine > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 3:34 PM > Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > > > Your memory is pretty good, altho I consider buying small caps as=20 much > closer to classic CANSLIM rules for "S" than IBD or WON currently=20 pushes. > > I wasn't losing money during the roaring bulls, just not making = what=20 I > could. But that was not the fault of my application of CANSLIM, it = was a > direct consequence of total neglect of my portfolio due dedication = and hours > spent on my day job. But even with total neglect, I still managed=20 about 12% > or so without trading, so at least better than a money market. > > You are correct also that EPIQ was a major contributor to my = profits=20 in > 2001, and I expect it to continue contributing in 2002. But I=20 finished the > year with every stock I owned up for the year, and with minimal=20 trading. I > only bought two new ones in 2001, the rest I had owned from prior=20 years. So > far in 2002, I have added 6 new ones, and sold one (merger=20 announced). Altho > three of the new ones are presently down, I am still up a little=20 overall. > And having fun. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "esetser" <esetser@covad.net> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> > Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 11:01 AM > Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > > > Be careful here, Tom has his own special breed of CANSLIM, and it=20 seems > that his returns have NOT been a good indicator of average returns = in=20 the > group. Unless I'm mistaken, Tom was losing money or breaking even = back in > the roaring bull, so maybe it was just his turn!! > > Tom does at least the following different from my approach (just = from > memory): > > 1 - Microcaps only (below the minimum recommended by WON) (S?) > 2 - Buys in the base before the breakout (Needs to because of 1) > 3 - Doesn't use Industry Group Strength as a leader/laggard = indicator=20 (I) > 4 - Buys in all markets (M) > > >From my perspective, he violates the normal rules for S, I, and = M. > However, Tom does admit to this, and doesn't even generally post = his > selections due to these variations. > > Given the differences, I think it should be expected that Tom's=20 performance > over a given year will vary from many of us. (And there is that = one=20 stock > that has appreciated several times his original investment that is > impacting the results too!) > > One other note. From my perspective, Tom's value to the group is = his > willingness to take the time to review most anyone's suggestions = and > selections and give great detail in his responses. His general=20 approach > may not follow CANSLIM exactly, but his postings to the group do=20 following > WON quite closely. He is our master educator on the technique, = and=20 gives a > lot of time and effort to the group. > > FWIW, I ended up 2001 with about a 13% loss and am down about 6% = more=20 this > year so far. Presently, I am only 25% invested with one position. = I am > not really responding on the group much, since I do not feel I = have=20 the > experience to short, and I am waiting for "M" to clear up before = new > purchases. > > > > > At 11:36 AM 2/16/02 +0100, you wrote: > >I think Tom bend only one rule --> stay out of the market if = there=20 is a > >downtrend in the overall market. > > > >But as I said, if you choose small caps and or IGs that are going = up, no > >problem making money on the long side. > >Just look on the builders or on the gold stocks latley ... > > > >BUT NEVER, NEVER buy stocks when the market and the IG is down. > >I have not seen one example where a member of the group does not=20 break down > >then (besides its a small cap) as well. > > > >Some IGs are just setting up a bull market for its members no = matter=20 what > >the market is doing. > > > >> -----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht----- > >> Von: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] > >> Gesendet am: Saturday, February 16, 2002 6:19 AM > >> An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >> Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > >> > >> While I routinely violate CANSLIM rules, nonetheless my entire=20 process is > >heavily based in CANSLIM. And I netted 76% for the full year, so=20 yeah, I > >made a net profit. > >> > >> Tom Worley > >> stkguru@netside.net > >> AIM: TexWorley > >> ----- Original Message ----- > >> From: David Squires > >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >> Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 12:11 AM > >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > >> > >> > >> haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made = lots=20 of $$ > >last year, and profitable so far this year (including my fully=20 margined > >account). > >> > >> >>fully invested year round, made lots of $$ last year<< > >> > >> You were fully invested last year long and made a net profit? = You > >better call George Soros! BTW, is this even remotely CANSLIM. > >> > >> DSquires > >> ----- Original Message ----- > >> From: Tom Worley > >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 10:47 PM > >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > >> > >> > >> haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made = lots=20 of $$ > >last year, and profitable so far this year (including my fully=20 margined > >account). > >> > >> Tom Worley > >> stkguru@netside.net > >> AIM: TexWorley > >> ----- Original Message ----- > >> From: Dan Forant > >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:03 PM > >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > >> > >> > >> Of course it's absurd. If anyone's been in the market for = the past > >year and hasn't shorted and made $$, they are either very lucky = or=20 far > >better than the average investor. There was no shortage of stocks = to=20 short > >in TC2000 and candlesticks. > >> > >> L8ter > >> DanF > >> ----- Original Message ----- > >> From: Ian > >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 11:13 AM > >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > >> > >> > >> I find it almost absurd that WON discourages shorting.=20 Almost all > >of WON's ideas appear to have originated with Jesse Livermore, = who=20 made the > >bulk of his money on the short side. The rules for selling a big=20 CANSLIM > >winner make for perfect short candidates. Although selling a = failed > >breakout as it returns into its base is NOT typically a good = short > >candidate. JMHO. > >> > >> Ian > >> > >> > >> > >> ----- Original Message ----- > >> From: Rob Miller > >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 6:40 AM > >> Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > >> > >> > >> Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks = worth=20 buying. > > However, my short list is overflowing. The only moderately attr = =20 active > >stocks I see on the long side are those already in an uptrend = that=20 are > >riding their lower channel. > >> > >> Is shorting considered off limits for this list? I = know=20 that > >WON discourages it, but he also claimed to make good money from=20 shorts in > >HTMMIS. As I understand it, he discourages it as a medium for = the=20 masses, > >nor necessarily for everyone. > >> > >> Rob > >> << Datei: ATT00014.htm >> > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > << Datei: ATT00002.htm >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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