Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 10:03:44 -0800
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I made great profits in my managed accounts last year, using a mixture of both long and short. However, in MY VR fund, which only allows long positions, I also made 40%+ from May 29 on (thats when I started doing it - it was also a bit of a market peak), and I was 25-35% cash the whole time. So I think that there is always money to be made in microcaps with growing revenue and EPS. IMHO, the reason that quality microcaps can resist 'M' is that they start with very low valuations relative to their bigcap peers. On the other hand, in a declining M, stocks that begin with historically bloated valuations have little chance of going a lot higher.
In a flat/declining market, I believe that we have to give over-emphasis to the original 'S' in CANSLIM, and stick with stocks with lower shares outstanding. Remember, in WON's original studies (done in the 70's) the median # of shares outstanding was just under 5,000,000. The big tech names of the 90's started with those kind of numbers, but they split so many times in the mania days, they have, IMHO, no chance of ever making meaningful EPS numbers ever again.
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Dan Forant
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 5:03 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
Of course it's absurd. If anyone's been in the market for the past year and hasn't shorted and made $$, they are either very lucky or far better than the average investor. There was no shortage of stocks to short in TC2000 and candlesticks.
L8ter
DanF
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 11:13 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
I find it almost absurd that WON discourages shorting. Almost all of WON's ideas appear to have originated with Jesse Livermore, who made the bulk of his money on the short side. The rules for selling a big CANSLIM winner make for perfect short candidates. Although selling a failed breakout as it returns into its base is NOT typically a good short candidate. JMHO.
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Rob Miller
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 6:40 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks worth buying. However, my short list is overflowing. The only moderately attractive stocks I see on the long side are those already in an uptrend that are riding their lower channel.
Is shorting considered off limits for this list? I know that WON discourages it, but he also claimed to make good money from shorts in HTMMIS. As I understand it, he discourages it as a medium for the masses, nor necessarily for everyone.
Rob
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<DIV><FONT size=2>I made great profits in my managed accounts last year, using a
mixture of both long and short. However, in MY VR fund, which only allows long
positions, I also made 40%+ from May 29 on (thats when I started doing it - it
was also a bit of a market peak), and I was 25-35% cash the whole time. So I
think that there is always money to be made in microcaps with growing revenue
and EPS. IMHO, the reason that quality microcaps can resist 'M' is that they
start with very low valuations relative to their bigcap peers. On the other
hand, in a declining M, stocks that begin with historically bloated
valuations have little chance of going a lot higher. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>In a flat/declining market, I believe that we have to give
over-emphasis to the original 'S' in CANSLIM, and stick with stocks with lower
shares outstanding. Remember, in WON's original studies (done in the 70's)
the median # of shares outstanding was just under 5,000,000. The big tech
names of the 90's started with those kind of numbers, but they split so many
times in the mania days, they have, IMHO, no chance of ever making meaningful
EPS numbers ever again. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com" title=dforant1@nycap.rr.com>Dan
Forant</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, February 15, 2002 5:03
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy
Candidates</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Of course it's absurd. If anyone's been in the
market for the past year and hasn't shorted and made $$, they are either very
lucky or far better than the average investor. There was no shortage of stocks
to short in TC2000 and candlesticks. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>L8ter<BR>DanF</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca" title=ianstm@shaw.ca>Ian</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, February 15, 2002 11:13
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy
Candidates</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I find it almost absurd that WON discourages shorting.
Almost all of WON's ideas appear to have originated with Jesse Livermore,
who made the bulk of his money on the short side. The rules for selling a
big CANSLIM winner make for perfect short candidates. Although selling a
failed breakout as it returns into its base is NOT typically a good short
candidate. JMHO.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:rmiller2@carolina.rr.com"
title=rmiller2@carolina.rr.com>Rob Miller</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, February 15, 2002 6:40
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy
Candidates</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few
stocks worth buying. However, my short list is overflowing.
The only moderately attractive stocks I see on the long side are those
already in an uptrend that are riding their lower channel.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Is shorting considered off limits
for this list? I know that WON discourages it, but he also claimed
to make good money from shorts in HTMMIS. As I understand it,
he discourages it as a medium for the masses,
nor necessarily for everyone. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Rob
</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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Next Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Ian
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