Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 10:29:54 -0800
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I know that that if I get 'lucky' with 4-6 picks in a year, even if I =
take 40 meaningful positions and make lots of other small 'boredom' =
trades, that I will have a very good year. As far as I can tell, running =
and pyramiding winners hard, and taking small losses in losers is the =
the hallmark of every successful trader/speculator who ever lived.=20
I would also add that it flies in the face of the old saying 'you cant =
go broke taking a profit'. Most people I've seen who don't do well, fail =
precisely because they do 'take a profit', but they take it way too =
early.=20
Ian
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 8:57 AM
Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
Hi Tom,
Your comments about EPIQ as a "big winner" in the portfolio remind me =
of comments I often hear from others when we have discussions about the =
big winners in our portfolios. On one hand, it really bugs me to hear =
people say "well, yeah, of course you had great returns, you had XXXX an =
YYYY....you were just lucky." Excuse me? I found XXXX and YYYY using the =
same methodical diligence I apply to all my buys. The difference is, =
these guys never triggered sell rules like all the others. Last Fall, I =
listened to a presentation by Kevin Marder, a hedge fund manager and a =
CANSLIM-style investor. He said the same thing that I've heard from =
other successful investors. "At the end of each year I give my =
accountant a list of my trades for tax purposes. On that list are a =
bunch of trades with very small losses. Also on that list are some =
really big gains that were responsible for most of my returns for the =
year. This happens every year without exception."
On the other hand, a comment such as "you were just lucky" makes me =
smile and nod in agreement, because I define luck as "being prepared =
when the opportunity arises and being willing to seize it." Yes, big =
winners are about luck in that sense. Finally, one of my favorite quotes =
and one that always stays in view at my desk:
"Opportunities are usually disguised as hard work, so most people =
don't recognize them." --Anne Landers
Here's to "big winners" and your continued "good luck"!
Cheers,
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 3:34 PM
Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
Your memory is pretty good, altho I consider buying small caps as =
much
closer to classic CANSLIM rules for "S" than IBD or WON currently =
pushes.
I wasn't losing money during the roaring bulls, just not making what =
I
could. But that was not the fault of my application of CANSLIM, it =
was a
direct consequence of total neglect of my portfolio due dedication =
and hours
spent on my day job. But even with total neglect, I still managed =
about 12%
or so without trading, so at least better than a money market.
You are correct also that EPIQ was a major contributor to my profits =
in
2001, and I expect it to continue contributing in 2002. But I =
finished the
year with every stock I owned up for the year, and with minimal =
trading. I
only bought two new ones in 2001, the rest I had owned from prior =
years. So
far in 2002, I have added 6 new ones, and sold one (merger =
announced). Altho
three of the new ones are presently down, I am still up a little =
overall.
And having fun.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: "esetser" <esetser@covad.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 11:01 AM
Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
Be careful here, Tom has his own special breed of CANSLIM, and it =
seems
that his returns have NOT been a good indicator of average returns =
in the
group. Unless I'm mistaken, Tom was losing money or breaking even =
back in
the roaring bull, so maybe it was just his turn!!
Tom does at least the following different from my approach (just =
from
memory):
1 - Microcaps only (below the minimum recommended by WON) (S?)
2 - Buys in the base before the breakout (Needs to because of 1)
3 - Doesn't use Industry Group Strength as a leader/laggard =
indicator (I)
4 - Buys in all markets (M)
>From my perspective, he violates the normal rules for S, I, and M.
However, Tom does admit to this, and doesn't even generally post his
selections due to these variations.
Given the differences, I think it should be expected that Tom's =
performance
over a given year will vary from many of us. (And there is that one =
stock
that has appreciated several times his original investment that is
impacting the results too!)
One other note. From my perspective, Tom's value to the group is =
his
willingness to take the time to review most anyone's suggestions and
selections and give great detail in his responses. His general =
approach
may not follow CANSLIM exactly, but his postings to the group do =
following
WON quite closely. He is our master educator on the technique, and =
gives a
lot of time and effort to the group.
FWIW, I ended up 2001 with about a 13% loss and am down about 6% =
more this
year so far. Presently, I am only 25% invested with one position. =
I am
not really responding on the group much, since I do not feel I have =
the
experience to short, and I am waiting for "M" to clear up before new
purchases.
At 11:36 AM 2/16/02 +0100, you wrote:
>I think Tom bend only one rule --> stay out of the market if there =
is a
>downtrend in the overall market.
>
>But as I said, if you choose small caps and or IGs that are going =
up, no
>problem making money on the long side.
>Just look on the builders or on the gold stocks latley ...
>
>BUT NEVER, NEVER buy stocks when the market and the IG is down.
>I have not seen one example where a member of the group does not =
break down
>then (besides its a small cap) as well.
>
>Some IGs are just setting up a bull market for its members no =
matter what
>the market is doing.
>
>> -----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht-----
>> Von: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net]
>> Gesendet am: Saturday, February 16, 2002 6:19 AM
>> An: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>> Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
>>
>> While I routinely violate CANSLIM rules, nonetheless my entire =
process is
>heavily based in CANSLIM. And I netted 76% for the full year, so =
yeah, I
>made a net profit.
>>
>> Tom Worley
>> stkguru@netside.net
>> AIM: TexWorley
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: David Squires
>> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>> Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 12:11 AM
>> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
>>
>>
>> haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made lots =
of $$
>last year, and profitable so far this year (including my fully =
margined
>account).
>>
>> >>fully invested year round, made lots of $$ last year<<
>>
>> You were fully invested last year long and made a net profit? =
You
>better call George Soros! BTW, is this even remotely CANSLIM.
>>
>> DSquires
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: Tom Worley
>> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 10:47 PM
>> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
>>
>>
>> haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made =
lots of $$
>last year, and profitable so far this year (including my fully =
margined
>account).
>>
>> Tom Worley
>> stkguru@netside.net
>> AIM: TexWorley
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: Dan Forant
>> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:03 PM
>> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
>>
>>
>> Of course it's absurd. If anyone's been in the market for =
the past
>year and hasn't shorted and made $$, they are either very lucky or =
far
>better than the average investor. There was no shortage of stocks =
to short
>in TC2000 and candlesticks.
>>
>> L8ter
>> DanF
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: Ian
>> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 11:13 AM
>> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
>>
>>
>> I find it almost absurd that WON discourages shorting. =
Almost all
>of WON's ideas appear to have originated with Jesse Livermore, who =
made the
>bulk of his money on the short side. The rules for selling a big =
CANSLIM
>winner make for perfect short candidates. Although selling a failed
>breakout as it returns into its base is NOT typically a good short
>candidate. JMHO.
>>
>> Ian
>>
>>
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: Rob Miller
>> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 6:40 AM
>> Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
>>
>>
>> Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks worth =
buying.
> However, my short list is overflowing. The only moderately =
attractive
>stocks I see on the long side are those already in an uptrend that =
are
>riding their lower channel.
>>
>> Is shorting considered off limits for this list? I =
know that
>WON discourages it, but he also claimed to make good money from =
shorts in
>HTMMIS. As I understand it, he discourages it as a medium for the =
masses,
>nor necessarily for everyone.
>>
>> Rob
>> << Datei: ATT00014.htm >>
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<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I know that that if I get 'lucky' with 4-6 picks in =
a year,=20
even if I take 40 meaningful positions and make lots of other small =
'boredom'=20
trades, that I will have a very good year. As far as I can tell, running =
and=20
pyramiding winners hard, and taking small losses in losers is the the =
hallmark=20
of every successful trader/speculator who ever lived. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I would also add that it flies in the face of the =
old saying=20
'you cant go broke taking a profit'. Most people I've seen who don't do =
well,=20
fail precisely because they do 'take a profit', but they take it way too =
early.=20
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: =
0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net" =
title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net>Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 17, 2002 =
8:57=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack =
of Buy=20
Candidates</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Tom,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Your comments about EPIQ as a "big winner" in the portfolio =
remind me of=20
comments I often hear from others when we have discussions about the =
big=20
winners in our portfolios. On one hand, it really bugs me to hear =
people=20
say "well, yeah, of course you had great returns, you had XXXX an =
YYYY....you=20
were just lucky." Excuse me? I found XXXX and YYYY using the same =
methodical=20
diligence I apply to all my buys. The difference is, these guys never=20
triggered sell rules like all the others. Last Fall, I listened to a=20
presentation by Kevin Marder, a hedge fund manager and a CANSLIM-style =
investor. He said the same thing that I've heard from other successful =
investors. "At the end of each year I give my accountant a list of my =
trades=20
for tax purposes. On that list are a bunch of trades with very small =
losses.=20
Also on that list are some really big gains that were responsible for =
most of=20
my returns for the year. This happens every year without =
exception."</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>On the other hand, a comment such as "you were just lucky" makes =
me smile=20
and nod in agreement, because I define luck as "being prepared when =
the=20
opportunity arises and being willing to seize it." Yes, big winners =
are about=20
luck in that sense. Finally, one of my favorite quotes and one that =
always=20
stays in view at my desk:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"Opportunities are usually disguised as hard work, so most people =
don't=20
recognize them." --Anne Landers</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Here's to "big winners" and your continued "good luck"!</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Cheers,</DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net" =
title=3Dstkguru@netside.net>Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 16, =
2002 3:34=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: AW: [CANSLIM] =
Lack of Buy=20
Candidates</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Your memory is pretty good, altho I consider buying =
small=20
caps as much<BR>closer to classic CANSLIM rules for "S" than IBD or =
WON=20
currently pushes.<BR><BR>I wasn't losing money during the roaring =
bulls,=20
just not making what I<BR>could. But that was not the fault of my=20
application of CANSLIM, it was a<BR>direct consequence of total =
neglect of=20
my portfolio due dedication and hours<BR>spent on my day job. But =
even with=20
total neglect, I still managed about 12%<BR>or so without trading, =
so at=20
least better than a money market.<BR><BR>You are correct also that =
EPIQ was=20
a major contributor to my profits in<BR>2001, and I expect it to =
continue=20
contributing in 2002. But I finished the<BR>year with every stock I =
owned up=20
for the year, and with minimal trading. I<BR>only bought two new =
ones in=20
2001, the rest I had owned from prior years. So<BR>far in 2002, I =
have added=20
6 new ones, and sold one (merger announced). Altho<BR>three of the =
new ones=20
are presently down, I am still up a little overall.<BR>And having=20
fun.<BR><BR>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR>----- Original Message -----<BR>From: "esetser" <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:esetser@covad.net">esetser@covad.net</A>><BR>To: =
<<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
><BR>Sent:=20
Saturday, February 16, 2002 11:01 AM<BR>Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] =
Lack of=20
Buy Candidates<BR><BR><BR>Be careful here, Tom has his own special =
breed of=20
CANSLIM, and it seems<BR>that his returns have NOT been a good =
indicator of=20
average returns in the<BR>group. Unless I'm mistaken, Tom was =
losing=20
money or breaking even back in<BR>the roaring bull, so maybe it was =
just his=20
turn!!<BR><BR>Tom does at least the following different from my =
approach=20
(just from<BR>memory):<BR><BR>1 - Microcaps only (below the minimum=20
recommended by WON) (S?)<BR>2 - Buys in the base before the breakout =
(Needs=20
to because of 1)<BR>3 - Doesn't use Industry Group Strength as a=20
leader/laggard indicator (I)<BR>4 - Buys in all markets =
(M)<BR><BR>>From=20
my perspective, he violates the normal rules for S, I, and =
M.<BR>However,=20
Tom does admit to this, and doesn't even generally post =
his<BR>selections=20
due to these variations.<BR><BR>Given the differences, I think it =
should be=20
expected that Tom's performance<BR>over a given year will vary from =
many of=20
us. (And there is that one stock<BR>that has appreciated =
several times=20
his original investment that is<BR>impacting the results =
too!)<BR><BR>One=20
other note. From my perspective, Tom's value to the group is=20
his<BR>willingness to take the time to review most anyone's =
suggestions=20
and<BR>selections and give great detail in his responses. His =
general=20
approach<BR>may not follow CANSLIM exactly, but his postings to the =
group do=20
following<BR>WON quite closely. He is our master educator on =
the=20
technique, and gives a<BR>lot of time and effort to the =
group.<BR><BR>FWIW,=20
I ended up 2001 with about a 13% loss and am down about 6% more =
this<BR>year=20
so far. Presently, I am only 25% invested with one=20
position. I am<BR>not really responding on the group =
much, since=20
I do not feel I have the<BR>experience to short, and I am waiting =
for "M" to=20
clear up before new<BR>purchases.<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>At 11:36 AM =
2/16/02=20
+0100, you wrote:<BR>>I think Tom bend only one rule --> stay =
out of=20
the market if there is a<BR>>downtrend in the overall=20
market.<BR>><BR>>But as I said, if you choose small caps and =
or IGs=20
that are going up, no<BR>>problem making money on the long=20
side.<BR>>Just look on the builders or on the gold stocks latley=20
...<BR>><BR>>BUT NEVER, NEVER buy stocks when the market and =
the IG is=20
down.<BR>>I have not seen one example where a member of the group =
does=20
not break down<BR>>then (besides its a small cap) as=20
well.<BR>><BR>>Some IGs are just setting up a bull market for =
its=20
members no matter what<BR>>the market is =
doing.<BR>><BR>>>=20
-----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht-----<BR>>> Von: Tom Worley=20
[SMTP:stkguru@netside.net]<BR>>> Gesendet am: Saturday, =
February 16,=20
2002 6:19 AM<BR>>> An: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR>>>=20
Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy =
Candidates<BR>>><BR>>> While=20
I routinely violate CANSLIM rules, nonetheless my entire process=20
is<BR>>heavily based in CANSLIM. And I netted 76% for the full =
year, so=20
yeah, I<BR>>made a net profit.<BR>>><BR>>> Tom=20
Worley<BR>>> <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>>> =
AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR>>> ----- Original Message=20
-----<BR>>> From: David =
Squires<BR>>> =20
To: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR>>> =20
Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 12:11 AM<BR>>> =
Subject:=20
Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20
Candidates<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>> haven't =
shorted=20
in years, fully invested year round, made lots of $$<BR>>last =
year, and=20
profitable so far this year (including my fully=20
margined<BR>>account).<BR>>><BR>>> =
>>fully=20
invested year round, made lots of $$ last=20
year<<<BR>>><BR>>> You were fully =
invested=20
last year long and made a net profit? You<BR>>better call George =
Soros!=20
BTW, is this even remotely =
CANSLIM.<BR>>><BR>>> =20
DSquires<BR>>> ----- Original Message=20
-----<BR>>> From: Tom=20
Worley<BR>>> To: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR>>> =20
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 10:47 =
PM<BR>>> =20
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20
=
Candidates<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>> =20
haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made lots of=20
$$<BR>>last year, and profitable so far this year (including my =
fully=20
=
margined<BR>>account).<BR>>><BR>>> =
=20
Tom Worley<BR>>> <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>>>&n=
bsp; =20
AIM: TexWorley<BR>>> ----- =
Original Message =
- -----<BR>>> From:=20
Dan Forant<BR>>> To: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR>>> =20
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:03=20
PM<BR>>> Subject: Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
Lack of Buy=20
=
Candidates<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>> &nb=
sp; =20
Of course it's absurd. If anyone's been in the market for the=20
past<BR>>year and hasn't shorted and made $$, they are either =
very lucky=20
or far<BR>>better than the average investor. There was no =
shortage of=20
stocks to short<BR>>in TC2000 and=20
=
candlesticks.<BR>>><BR>>> =
=20
L8ter<BR>>> =20
DanF<BR>>> =
- -----=20
Original Message=20
-----<BR>>> =
From:=20
Ian<BR>>> To: =
<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR>>> =20
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 11:13=20
AM<BR>>> =
Subject: Re:=20
[CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20
=
Candidates<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>> &nb=
sp; =20
I find it almost absurd that WON discourages shorting. Almost =
all<BR>>of=20
WON's ideas appear to have originated with Jesse Livermore, who made =
the<BR>>bulk of his money on the short side. The rules for =
selling a big=20
CANSLIM<BR>>winner make for perfect short candidates. Although =
selling a=20
failed<BR>>breakout as it returns into its base is NOT typically =
a good=20
short<BR>>candidate.=20
=
JMHO.<BR>>><BR>>> &n=
bsp;=20
=
Ian<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>><BR>>> &nbs=
p; =20
----- Original Message=20
=
- -----<BR>>> &n=
bsp;=20
From: Rob=20
=
Miller<BR>>> &=
nbsp;=20
To: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR>>> =
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 6:40=20
=
AM<BR>>>  =
;=20
Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20
=
Candidates<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>> &nb=
sp; =20
Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks worth =
buying.<BR>>=20
However, my short list is overflowing. The only moderately=20
attractive<BR>>stocks I see on the long side are those already in =
an=20
uptrend that are<BR>>riding their lower=20
=
channel.<BR>>><BR>>>  =
; =20
Is shorting considered off limits for this list? I know=20
that<BR>>WON discourages it, but he also claimed to make good =
money from=20
shorts in<BR>>HTMMIS. As I understand it, he discourages it =
as a=20
medium for the masses,<BR>>nor necessarily for=20
=
everyone.<BR>>><BR>>> &nbs=
p; =20
Rob<BR>>> << Datei: ATT00014.htm=20
>><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email =
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