RE: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100

From: "Fred Richards" <adrich@gte.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100
Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 15:06:32 -0600
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Of course, I could be wrong but you all remind me of the old saying that
"hope springs eternal in the breast of homosapiens".  Katherine remember my
comment in Dallas when I said your historical perspective was shorter than
us "old people."  Everything you mentioned below in the Andreas response is
correct, but the timing is somewhat suspect.

Until proven wrong, (and I hope to be), this may be the last gasp of the
bear market rally.  I'd be careful here.  If any of the other countries in
the world were looking halfway healthy, I'd be more optimistic.

No longer can the US pull the rest of the world out of the stupor which
means that the bull might still be a way off in the future, say 2004.  The
entire financial structure is creaking and if one or two major Japanese
banks go down or JP Morgan Chase, the whole ball game could change in a
blink.  With currencies deteriorating every day, the strong dollar policy of
the US is wrecking domestic manufacturing and agricultural income.

Fred

- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Andreas
Himmelreich
Sent: Friday, February 22, 2002 9:49 AM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100


Hi Katherine,

thank you. I do belive as well, that the big picture (going from Bear to
Bull) is intact, just was not aware of the transition in between ...

Regards

Andreas



> -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----
> Von:	Katherine Malm [SMTP:kmalm@earthlink.net]
> Gesendet am:	Friday, February 22, 2002 3:15 PM
> An:	canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Betreff:	Re: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100
>
> Hi Andreas,
>
> When I look at strength under the surface I see these things:
>
> (1) Defensives--fine, that's to be expected during a Bear. (consumer
defensives are particularly Late Bear)
> (2) Cyclicals--very important, as strength in cyclicals shows that the
expectation for economic recovery is substantiated. Cyclicals were also
"out of favor" stocks during the last part of the Bull, so rotation to
these out of favor groups is expected.
> (3) Consumer Growth--cosmetics, soft drinks, some drugs--exactly the sort
of thing evident in Late Bear stages
> (4) Energy--interesting action in oil and oil related stocks--Late Bear &
Early Bull stages
> (5) Transportation--also strong lately, though looking a little
tipsy--Early Bull
> (6) Utilities--Late Bear
> (7) Financials--ex the Money Center Banks, a lot of strength showing
here--Late Bear
> (8) Services, especially tech related services--unencumbered by capacity
excesses
> (9) Media--a real surprise. Newspapers and radio/television have
outperformed the Russell 2000 over the last 3, 8, 26 *and* 52 weeks. That's
very telling, because businesses in trouble don't want to spend on
advertising. Yet...here we have newspapers, radio/tv and other misc. media
that depend on advertising doing fairly well. Not spectacular, but
performing well on a *relative* basis. Also an Early Bull sign. (Note
recent postings by Gary on the radio/tv legislation changes and Ian on
"marketing sector" strength as further evidence) If you think about it,
though, it makes sense. If I had too much inventory and excess capacity,
I'd be willing to spend some "smart" money to stimulate demand.
Hmm...consumer seems willing to spend....sounds like an expectation of an
okay economy.
> (10) Homebuilders and other interest rate sensitive stocks--Early Bull
(though I still contend homebuilders as a group are long in the tooth,
despite strong business fundamentals)
> (11) Small/micro cap growth--Very quietly showing strength....*we* see it
because we're CANSLIMers. In the early phases of a new Bull, the
undiscovered names with new growth stories begin to emerge. The masses
don't know their names yet. We do.
>
> At the same time I am seeing:
> Crash and Burn on large cap techs and overowned names--Still trying to
get the last of the hot air out of the faulty tire. The Naz100 tells the
tale of leftover bubbledom. What will be left are solid companies with
solid financial condition that still meet the needs of a growing market.
Many believe that the next era will not be dominated by tech as was the
last Bull (primarily because of our timing with respect to the innovation
cycle) There are other "growth" stories besides tech, so we need to be
ever-watchful.
>
> May take a while to sort everything out....but in the meantime, there are
always strong stocks in lousy markets....just need to know where to look.
>
> Katherine
>
>   ----- Original Message -----
>   From: Andreas Himmelreich
>   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>   Sent: Friday, February 22, 2002 7:27 AM
>   Subject: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100
>
>
>   On the nasdaq 100 we are on levels not seen since 10/10, so only a
couple
>   of days since FTD of 9/28 (8 Trading days).
>
>   Great Canslim Stocks with very good fundamentals are holding up
relativly
>   well though.
>
>   From a projection point of view I would never have predicted this. But
as
>   Wons states, do not predict, just look what the market is doing now ...
>
>   Just curious: Anyone of you who had that view?
>
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>  << Datei: ATT00005.htm >>

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