Re: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100

From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100
Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 08:15:14 -0600
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Hi Andreas,

When I look at strength under the surface I see these things:

(1) Defensives--fine, that's to be expected during a Bear. (consumer =
defensives are particularly Late Bear)
(2) Cyclicals--very important, as strength in cyclicals shows that the =
expectation for economic recovery is substantiated. Cyclicals were also =
"out of favor" stocks during the last part of the Bull, so rotation to =
these out of favor groups is expected.
(3) Consumer Growth--cosmetics, soft drinks, some drugs--exactly the =
sort of thing evident in Late Bear stages
(4) Energy--interesting action in oil and oil related stocks--Late Bear =
& Early Bull stages
(5) Transportation--also strong lately, though looking a little =
tipsy--Early Bull
(6) Utilities--Late Bear
(7) Financials--ex the Money Center Banks, a lot of strength showing =
here--Late Bear
(8) Services, especially tech related services--unencumbered by capacity =
excesses
(9) Media--a real surprise. Newspapers and radio/television have =
outperformed the Russell 2000 over the last 3, 8, 26 *and* 52 weeks. =
That's very telling, because businesses in trouble don't want to spend =
on advertising. Yet...here we have newspapers, radio/tv and other misc. =
media that depend on advertising doing fairly well. Not spectacular, but =
performing well on a *relative* basis. Also an Early Bull sign. (Note =
recent postings by Gary on the radio/tv legislation changes and Ian on =
"marketing sector" strength as further evidence) If you think about it, =
though, it makes sense. If I had too much inventory and excess capacity, =
I'd be willing to spend some "smart" money to stimulate demand. =
Hmm...consumer seems willing to spend....sounds like an expectation of =
an okay economy.
(10) Homebuilders and other interest rate sensitive stocks--Early Bull =
(though I still contend homebuilders as a group are long in the tooth, =
despite strong business fundamentals)
(11) Small/micro cap growth--Very quietly showing strength....*we* see =
it because we're CANSLIMers. In the early phases of a new Bull, the =
undiscovered names with new growth stories begin to emerge. The masses =
don't know their names yet. We do.

At the same time I am seeing:
Crash and Burn on large cap techs and overowned names--Still trying to =
get the last of the hot air out of the faulty tire. The Naz100 tells the =
tale of leftover bubbledom. What will be left are solid companies with =
solid financial condition that still meet the needs of a growing market. =
Many believe that the next era will not be dominated by tech as was the =
last Bull (primarily because of our timing with respect to the =
innovation cycle) There are other "growth" stories besides tech, so we =
need to be ever-watchful.

May take a while to sort everything out....but in the meantime, there =
are always strong stocks in lousy markets....just need to know where to =
look.

Katherine

  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: Andreas Himmelreich=20
  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  Sent: Friday, February 22, 2002 7:27 AM
  Subject: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100


  On the nasdaq 100 we are on levels not seen since 10/10, so only a =
couple=20
  of days since FTD of 9/28 (8 Trading days).

  Great Canslim Stocks with very good fundamentals are holding up =
relativly=20
  well though.

  From a projection point of view I would never have predicted this. But =
as=20
  Wons states, do not predict, just look what the market is doing now =
...

  Just curious: Anyone of you who had that view?

  -
  -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
  -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
  -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.


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<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV>Hi Andreas,</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>When I look at strength under the surface I see these things:</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>(1) Defensives--fine, that's to be expected during a Bear. =
(consumer=20
defensives are particularly Late Bear)</DIV>
<DIV>(2) Cyclicals--very important, as strength in cyclicals shows that =
the=20
expectation for economic recovery is substantiated. Cyclicals were also =
"out of=20
favor" stocks during the last part of the Bull, so rotation to these out =
of=20
favor groups is expected.</DIV>
<DIV>(3) Consumer Growth--cosmetics, soft drinks, some drugs--exactly =
the sort=20
of thing evident in Late Bear stages</DIV>
<DIV>(4) Energy--interesting action in oil and oil related stocks--Late =
Bear=20
&amp; Early Bull stages</DIV>
<DIV>(5) Transportation--also strong lately, though looking a little=20
tipsy--Early Bull</DIV>
<DIV>(6) Utilities--Late Bear</DIV>
<DIV>(7) Financials--ex the Money Center Banks, a lot of strength =
showing=20
here--Late Bear</DIV>
<DIV>(8) Services, especially tech related services--unencumbered by =
capacity=20
excesses</DIV>
<DIV>(9) Media--a real surprise. Newspapers and radio/television have=20
outperformed the Russell 2000 over the last 3, 8, 26 *and* 52 weeks. =
That's very=20
telling, because businesses in trouble don't want to spend on =
advertising.=20
Yet...here we have newspapers, radio/tv and other misc. media that =
depend on=20
advertising doing fairly well. Not spectacular, but performing well on a =

*relative* basis. Also an Early Bull sign. (Note recent postings by Gary =
on the=20
radio/tv legislation changes and Ian on "marketing sector" strength as =
further=20
evidence) If you think about it, though, it makes sense. If I had too =
much=20
inventory and excess capacity, I'd be willing to spend some "smart" =
money to=20
stimulate demand. Hmm...consumer seems willing to spend....sounds like =
an=20
expectation of an okay economy.</DIV>
<DIV>(10) Homebuilders and other interest rate sensitive stocks--Early =
Bull=20
(though I still contend homebuilders as a group are long in the tooth, =
despite=20
strong business fundamentals)</DIV>
<DIV>(11) Small/micro cap growth--Very quietly showing strength....*we* =
see it=20
because we're CANSLIMers. In the early phases of a new Bull, the =
undiscovered=20
names with new growth stories begin to emerge. The masses don't know =
their names=20
yet. We do.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>At the same time I am seeing:</DIV>
<DIV>Crash and Burn on large cap techs and overowned names--Still trying =
to get=20
the last of the hot air out of the faulty tire. The Naz100 tells the =
tale of=20
leftover bubbledom. What will be left are solid companies with solid =
financial=20
condition that still meet the needs of a growing market. Many believe =
that the=20
next era will not be dominated by tech as was the last Bull (primarily =
because=20
of&nbsp;our timing with respect to the innovation cycle)&nbsp;There are =
other=20
"growth" stories besides tech, so we need to be ever-watchful.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>May take a while to sort everything out....but in the meantime, =
there are=20
always strong stocks in lousy markets....just need to know where to =
look.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
  <A title=3Djudgejimmy@web.de href=3D"mailto:judgejimmy@web.de">Andreas =

  Himmelreich</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
 </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, February 22, 2002 =
7:27=20
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Market, =
Nasdaq=20
  100</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>On the nasdaq 100 we are on levels not seen since =
10/10, so=20
  only a couple <BR>of days since FTD of 9/28 (8 Trading =
days).<BR><BR>Great=20
  Canslim Stocks with very good fundamentals are holding up relativly =
<BR>well=20
  though.<BR><BR>From a projection point of view I would never have =
predicted=20
  this. But as <BR>Wons states, do not predict, just look what the =
market is=20
  doing now ...<BR><BR>Just curious: Anyone of you who had that=20
  view?<BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In=
 the=20
  email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe =
canslim".&nbsp; Do=20
  not use quotes in your email.<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

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