Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100
Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 17:11:25 -0600
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0090_01C1BBC3.F5878240 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I remember your remark, Fred, and I heed well the advise. I do, however, = differentiate between "hope" and "what I see" as they are not one and = the same. I have never believed that we were headed into a raging Bull = as the '82-'00 but instead into a long 10-15 year sideways market. We = have several forces working in tandem--monetary/inflation cycles, = earnings cycles, global interconnectedness, innovation cycles, human = nature, fiscal policy, market cycles, etc. Despite the fact that I was = not investing during the last 100 years, I have studied market history. = For that reason, I simply "read what is and act upon it" vs. "wish or = hope that the market will go up." A CANSLIM discipline works because it = forces the trader/investor to read the signals and act accordingly.=20 With respect to timing, a transition bear to bull could take a very long = time. I did not intend to imply that the transition would end tomorrow. = In the meantime, I'm listening to the market, industries and individual = stocks with big ears. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Fred Richards=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, February 22, 2002 3:06 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100 Of course, I could be wrong but you all remind me of the old saying = that "hope springs eternal in the breast of homosapiens". Katherine = remember my comment in Dallas when I said your historical perspective was shorter = than us "old people." Everything you mentioned below in the Andreas = response is correct, but the timing is somewhat suspect. Until proven wrong, (and I hope to be), this may be the last gasp of = the bear market rally. I'd be careful here. If any of the other = countries in the world were looking halfway healthy, I'd be more optimistic. No longer can the US pull the rest of the world out of the stupor = which means that the bull might still be a way off in the future, say 2004. = The entire financial structure is creaking and if one or two major = Japanese banks go down or JP Morgan Chase, the whole ball game could change in = a blink. With currencies deteriorating every day, the strong dollar = policy of the US is wrecking domestic manufacturing and agricultural income. Fred -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Andreas Himmelreich Sent: Friday, February 22, 2002 9:49 AM To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100 Hi Katherine, thank you. I do belive as well, that the big picture (going from Bear = to Bull) is intact, just was not aware of the transition in between ... Regards Andreas > -----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht----- > Von: Katherine Malm [SMTP:kmalm@earthlink.net] > Gesendet am: Friday, February 22, 2002 3:15 PM > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100 > > Hi Andreas, > > When I look at strength under the surface I see these things: > > (1) Defensives--fine, that's to be expected during a Bear. (consumer defensives are particularly Late Bear) > (2) Cyclicals--very important, as strength in cyclicals shows that = the expectation for economic recovery is substantiated. Cyclicals were = also "out of favor" stocks during the last part of the Bull, so rotation to these out of favor groups is expected. > (3) Consumer Growth--cosmetics, soft drinks, some drugs--exactly the = sort of thing evident in Late Bear stages > (4) Energy--interesting action in oil and oil related stocks--Late = Bear & Early Bull stages > (5) Transportation--also strong lately, though looking a little tipsy--Early Bull > (6) Utilities--Late Bear > (7) Financials--ex the Money Center Banks, a lot of strength showing here--Late Bear > (8) Services, especially tech related services--unencumbered by = capacity excesses > (9) Media--a real surprise. Newspapers and radio/television have outperformed the Russell 2000 over the last 3, 8, 26 *and* 52 weeks. = That's very telling, because businesses in trouble don't want to spend on advertising. Yet...here we have newspapers, radio/tv and other misc. = media that depend on advertising doing fairly well. Not spectacular, but performing well on a *relative* basis. Also an Early Bull sign. (Note recent postings by Gary on the radio/tv legislation changes and Ian on "marketing sector" strength as further evidence) If you think about = it, though, it makes sense. If I had too much inventory and excess = capacity, I'd be willing to spend some "smart" money to stimulate demand. Hmm...consumer seems willing to spend....sounds like an expectation of = an okay economy. > (10) Homebuilders and other interest rate sensitive stocks--Early = Bull (though I still contend homebuilders as a group are long in the tooth, despite strong business fundamentals) > (11) Small/micro cap growth--Very quietly showing strength....*we* = see it because we're CANSLIMers. In the early phases of a new Bull, the undiscovered names with new growth stories begin to emerge. The masses don't know their names yet. We do. > > At the same time I am seeing: > Crash and Burn on large cap techs and overowned names--Still trying = to get the last of the hot air out of the faulty tire. The Naz100 tells = the tale of leftover bubbledom. What will be left are solid companies with solid financial condition that still meet the needs of a growing = market. Many believe that the next era will not be dominated by tech as was = the last Bull (primarily because of our timing with respect to the = innovation cycle) There are other "growth" stories besides tech, so we need to be ever-watchful. > > May take a while to sort everything out....but in the meantime, = there are always strong stocks in lousy markets....just need to know where to = look. > > Katherine > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Andreas Himmelreich > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Friday, February 22, 2002 7:27 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100 > > > On the nasdaq 100 we are on levels not seen since 10/10, so only a couple > of days since FTD of 9/28 (8 Trading days). > > Great Canslim Stocks with very good fundamentals are holding up relativly > well though. > > From a projection point of view I would never have predicted this. = But as > Wons states, do not predict, just look what the market is doing = now ... > > Just curious: Anyone of you who had that view? > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > << Datei: ATT00005.htm >> - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_0090_01C1BBC3.F5878240 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4807.2300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV>I remember your remark, Fred, and I heed well the advise. I do, = however,=20 differentiate between "hope" and "what I see" as they are not = one and=20 the same. I have never believed that we were headed into a raging Bull = as the=20 '82-'00 but instead into a long 10-15 year sideways market. We have = several=20 forces working in tandem--monetary/inflation cycles, earnings cycles, = global=20 interconnectedness, innovation cycles, human nature, fiscal policy, = market=20 cycles, etc. Despite the fact that I was not investing during the last = 100=20 years, I have studied market history. For that reason, I simply "read = what is=20 and act upon it" vs. "wish or hope that the market will go up." A = CANSLIM=20 discipline works because it forces the trader/investor to read the = signals and=20 act accordingly. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>With respect to timing, a transition bear to bull could take a very = long=20 time. I did not intend to imply that the transition would end tomorrow. = In the=20 meantime, I'm listening to the market, industries and individual stocks = with big=20 ears.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Katherine</DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dadrich@gte.net href=3D"mailto:adrich@gte.net">Fred = Richards</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, February 22, 2002 = 3:06=20 PM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] Market, = Nasdaq=20 100</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV>Of course, I could be wrong but you all remind me of = the old=20 saying that<BR>"hope springs eternal in the breast of = homosapiens". =20 Katherine remember my<BR>comment in Dallas when I said your historical = perspective was shorter than<BR>us "old people." Everything you=20 mentioned below in the Andreas response is<BR>correct, but the timing = is=20 somewhat suspect.<BR><BR>Until proven wrong, (and I hope to be), this = may be=20 the last gasp of the<BR>bear market rally. I'd be careful = here. If=20 any of the other countries in<BR>the world were looking halfway = healthy, I'd=20 be more optimistic.<BR><BR>No longer can the US pull the rest of the = world out=20 of the stupor which<BR>means that the bull might still be a way off in = the=20 future, say 2004. The<BR>entire financial structure is creaking = and if=20 one or two major Japanese<BR>banks go down or JP Morgan Chase, the = whole ball=20 game could change in a<BR>blink. With currencies deteriorating = every=20 day, the strong dollar policy of<BR>the US is wrecking domestic = manufacturing=20 and agricultural income.<BR><BR>Fred<BR><BR>-----Original=20 Message-----<BR>From: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com</A><BR>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On=20 Behalf Of Andreas<BR>Himmelreich<BR>Sent: Friday, February 22, 2002 = 9:49=20 AM<BR>To: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'= </A><BR>Subject:=20 AW: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100<BR><BR><BR>Hi Katherine,<BR><BR>thank = you. I=20 do belive as well, that the big picture (going from Bear to<BR>Bull) = is=20 intact, just was not aware of the transition in between=20 ...<BR><BR>Regards<BR><BR>Andreas<BR><BR><BR><BR>> = - -----Urspr=FCngliche=20 Nachricht-----<BR>> Von: Katherine Malm = [SMTP:kmalm@earthlink.net]<BR>>=20 Gesendet am: Friday, February 22, 2002 3:15 PM<BR>> An: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= <BR>>=20 Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100<BR>><BR>> Hi=20 Andreas,<BR>><BR>> When I look at strength under the surface I = see these=20 things:<BR>><BR>> (1) Defensives--fine, that's to be expected = during a=20 Bear. (consumer<BR>defensives are particularly Late Bear)<BR>> (2)=20 Cyclicals--very important, as strength in cyclicals shows that=20 the<BR>expectation for economic recovery is substantiated. Cyclicals = were=20 also<BR>"out of favor" stocks during the last part of the Bull, so = rotation=20 to<BR>these out of favor groups is expected.<BR>> (3) Consumer=20 Growth--cosmetics, soft drinks, some drugs--exactly the sort<BR>of = thing=20 evident in Late Bear stages<BR>> (4) Energy--interesting action in = oil and=20 oil related stocks--Late Bear &<BR>Early Bull stages<BR>> (5)=20 Transportation--also strong lately, though looking a = little<BR>tipsy--Early=20 Bull<BR>> (6) Utilities--Late Bear<BR>> (7) Financials--ex the = Money=20 Center Banks, a lot of strength showing<BR>here--Late Bear<BR>> (8) = Services, especially tech related services--unencumbered by=20 capacity<BR>excesses<BR>> (9) Media--a real surprise. Newspapers = and=20 radio/television have<BR>outperformed the Russell 2000 over the last = 3, 8, 26=20 *and* 52 weeks. That's<BR>very telling, because businesses in trouble = don't=20 want to spend on<BR>advertising. Yet...here we have newspapers, = radio/tv and=20 other misc. media<BR>that depend on advertising doing fairly well. Not = spectacular, but<BR>performing well on a *relative* basis. Also an = Early Bull=20 sign. (Note<BR>recent postings by Gary on the radio/tv legislation = changes and=20 Ian on<BR>"marketing sector" strength as further evidence) If you = think about=20 it,<BR>though, it makes sense. If I had too much inventory and excess=20 capacity,<BR>I'd be willing to spend some "smart" money to stimulate=20 demand.<BR>Hmm...consumer seems willing to spend....sounds like an = expectation=20 of an<BR>okay economy.<BR>> (10) Homebuilders and other interest = rate=20 sensitive stocks--Early Bull<BR>(though I still contend homebuilders = as a=20 group are long in the tooth,<BR>despite strong business = fundamentals)<BR>>=20 (11) Small/micro cap growth--Very quietly showing strength....*we* see = it<BR>because we're CANSLIMers. In the early phases of a new Bull,=20 the<BR>undiscovered names with new growth stories begin to emerge. The = masses<BR>don't know their names yet. We do.<BR>><BR>> At the = same time=20 I am seeing:<BR>> Crash and Burn on large cap techs and overowned=20 names--Still trying to<BR>get the last of the hot air out of the = faulty tire.=20 The Naz100 tells the<BR>tale of leftover bubbledom. What will be left = are=20 solid companies with<BR>solid financial condition that still meet the = needs of=20 a growing market.<BR>Many believe that the next era will not be = dominated by=20 tech as was the<BR>last Bull (primarily because of our timing with = respect to=20 the innovation<BR>cycle) There are other "growth" stories besides = tech, so we=20 need to be<BR>ever-watchful.<BR>><BR>> May take a while to sort=20 everything out....but in the meantime, there are<BR>always strong = stocks in=20 lousy markets....just need to know where to look.<BR>><BR>>=20 Katherine<BR>><BR>> ----- Original Message=20 -----<BR>> From: Andreas = Himmelreich<BR>> To: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= <BR>> =20 Sent: Friday, February 22, 2002 7:27 AM<BR>> Subject: = [CANSLIM]=20 Market, Nasdaq 100<BR>><BR>><BR>> On the nasdaq = 100 we=20 are on levels not seen since 10/10, so only = a<BR>couple<BR>> of=20 days since FTD of 9/28 (8 Trading days).<BR>><BR>> = Great=20 Canslim Stocks with very good fundamentals are holding=20 up<BR>relativly<BR>> well = though.<BR>><BR>> =20 From a projection point of view I would never have predicted this.=20 But<BR>as<BR>> Wons states, do not predict, just look = what the=20 market is doing now ...<BR>><BR>> Just curious: = Anyone of=20 you who had that view?<BR>><BR>> = - -<BR>> -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>>= ; =20 -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> =20 -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your=20 email.<BR>><BR>> << Datei: ATT00005.htm=20 >><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To = subscribe/unsubscribe, email=20 "<A = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In= =20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe = canslim". =20 Do not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0090_01C1BBC3.F5878240-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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