AW: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100

From: Andreas Himmelreich <judgejimmy@web.de>
Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100
Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 16:48:46 +0100

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Hi Katherine,

thank you. I do belive as well, that the big picture (going from Bear to =

Bull) is intact, just was not aware of the transition in between ...

Regards

Andreas



> -----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht-----
> Von:	Katherine Malm [SMTP:kmalm@earthlink.net]
> Gesendet am:	Friday, February 22, 2002 3:15 PM
> An:	canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Betreff:	Re: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100
>
> Hi Andreas,
>
> When I look at strength under the surface I see these things:
>
> (1) Defensives--fine, that's to be expected during a Bear. (consumer=20
defensives are particularly Late Bear)
> (2) Cyclicals--very important, as strength in cyclicals shows that the =

expectation for economic recovery is substantiated. Cyclicals were also=20
"out of favor" stocks during the last part of the Bull, so rotation to=20
these out of favor groups is expected.
> (3) Consumer Growth--cosmetics, soft drinks, some drugs--exactly the =
sort=20
of thing evident in Late Bear stages
> (4) Energy--interesting action in oil and oil related stocks--Late =
Bear &=20
Early Bull stages
> (5) Transportation--also strong lately, though looking a little=20
tipsy--Early Bull
> (6) Utilities--Late Bear
> (7) Financials--ex the Money Center Banks, a lot of strength showing=20
here--Late Bear
> (8) Services, especially tech related services--unencumbered by =
capacity=20
excesses
> (9) Media--a real surprise. Newspapers and radio/television have=20
outperformed the Russell 2000 over the last 3, 8, 26 *and* 52 weeks. =
That's=20
very telling, because businesses in trouble don't want to spend on=20
advertising. Yet...here we have newspapers, radio/tv and other misc. =
media=20
that depend on advertising doing fairly well. Not spectacular, but=20
performing well on a *relative* basis. Also an Early Bull sign. (Note=20
recent postings by Gary on the radio/tv legislation changes and Ian on=20
"marketing sector" strength as further evidence) If you think about it,=20
though, it makes sense. If I had too much inventory and excess capacity, =

I'd be willing to spend some "smart" money to stimulate demand.=20
Hmm...consumer seems willing to spend....sounds like an expectation of =
an=20
okay economy.
> (10) Homebuilders and other interest rate sensitive stocks--Early Bull =

(though I still contend homebuilders as a group are long in the tooth,=20
despite strong business fundamentals)
> (11) Small/micro cap growth--Very quietly showing strength....*we* see =
it=20
because we're CANSLIMers. In the early phases of a new Bull, the=20
undiscovered names with new growth stories begin to emerge. The masses=20
don't know their names yet. We do.
>
> At the same time I am seeing:
> Crash and Burn on large cap techs and overowned names--Still trying to =

get the last of the hot air out of the faulty tire. The Naz100 tells the =

tale of leftover bubbledom. What will be left are solid companies with=20
solid financial condition that still meet the needs of a growing market. =

Many believe that the next era will not be dominated by tech as was the=20
last Bull (primarily because of our timing with respect to the =
innovation=20
cycle) There are other "growth" stories besides tech, so we need to be=20
ever-watchful.
>
> May take a while to sort everything out....but in the meantime, there =
are=20
always strong stocks in lousy markets....just need to know where to =
look.
>
> Katherine
>
>   ----- Original Message -----
>   From: Andreas Himmelreich
>   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>   Sent: Friday, February 22, 2002 7:27 AM
>   Subject: [CANSLIM] Market, Nasdaq 100
>
>
>   On the nasdaq 100 we are on levels not seen since 10/10, so only a=20
couple
>   of days since FTD of 9/28 (8 Trading days).
>
>   Great Canslim Stocks with very good fundamentals are holding up=20
relativly
>   well though.
>
>   From a projection point of view I would never have predicted this. =
But=20
as
>   Wons states, do not predict, just look what the market is doing now =
...
>
>   Just curious: Anyone of you who had that view?
>
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>  << Datei: ATT00005.htm >> 

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