Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 2 Mar 2002 18:03:50 -0500
Previous Article (by Date): RE: [CANSLIM] Acc/dis numbers -- market in correction "Fred Richards"
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0034_01C1C214.9B7EFDD0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0035_01C1C214.9B7EFDD0" - ------=_NextPart_001_0035_01C1C214.9B7EFDD0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS As just one more measure of consumer confidence levels, sales of = existing homes jumped 16% to a new record. Annualized rate was 6.04 = million units, expectation was for 5.2 million. However, sales of New = Homes in January fell far more than expected, dropping 15% and in sharp = contrast to the rise in existing home sales previously reported (up = 16.2%). Seasonal adjustments may be affecting both of these results. Consumer confidence surprised analysts with a drop to 94.1 from 97.8, = expected was a drop to 97.0. The level of unemployment, and its = continuing effects on consumers, was blamed. Mr. Greenspan was cautiously optimistic on the economic recovery on = Wednesday. His comments continue to confirm to me an extraordinarily = mild "recession" (technically never happened), but with a slow recovery. = The upside is that inflation remains a non-event, and any inflation = fighting rate hikes are likely way off, at least well into the second = half of 2002, and quite possibly not until some time in 2003. Durable Goods orders soared to 2.6% growth in January, doubling = expectations of a 1.3% rise. December was revised to 0.9%.=20 Both Personal Income and Personal Spending rose 0.4% in January. 4th quarter GDP was revised sharply higher to 1.4% from 0.2% = (expectations was 0.9%), further affirming the absence of any real = recession. Even assuming a recession really started in March using new = growth standards, this remains one of the shortest and mildest = recessions in history. Chicago's Purchasing Managers Index, which often sets the tone for the = nation, not only rose for the first time in eighteen months but jumped = into positive territory, climbing to 53.1 from 45.1. Expected was 47.0. = And ISM (formerly NAPM) reported that their index jumped from 49.9 in = December to actual expansion at 54.7 in January. First time since July = 2000 that it is back over 50. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN Thought I might be able to stop my Japan bashing for a week. Despite all = odds, and their disappointment in the lack of decisive action (or even = words) in the latest anti-deflation govt proposal, the Nikkei rallied = nearly 3% on their Wednesday, to finish decisively over 10K. OK, the = Nikkei wins, the DOW 30 loses the race. A strong yen still wins out, but = I don't trust it for long. And on Thursday, another rally over 2% as the = shorters began to cover to comply with new and more restrictive rules on = shorting. Didn't last, tho. A thousand point gain in a week, and I don't = trust one inch of it, not a bit came from improvement in fundies, = improving economy or resolution of the bad bank loans.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABEES As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks duration. Should I = see a specific CANSLIM pattern, such as a c&h, double bottom, or a LLUR, = I will mention it. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend expanded sharply = during the past week. ALLY - trying to build the handle on a short cup? CFFN - LLUR CHKE - B6+, declining volume CMC - B9, declining volume CUNO - B7 DCOM - B4 DF - weak double bottom DLX - LLUR FCEA - B5+ HRB - LLUR MBFI - B8, trying to b/o MBWM - B3+ MCL - volatile LLUR MFA - B7 ODP - B2+ PETM - LLUR POSS - b/o Friday on 4X ADV, in my VR fund RMCI - sharp correction on Friday, watch Monday, I own, in my VR Fund RYAN - LLUR STAR - B4 SWTX - B8, microcap, low price TASR - 7 week consolidation, microcap, in my VR fund Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0035_01C1C214.9B7EFDD0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2713.1100" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As just one more measure of consumer confidence = levels,=20 sales of existing homes jumped 16% to a new record. Annualized rate was = 6.04=20 million units, expectation was for 5.2 million. However, sales of New = Homes in=20 January fell far more than expected, dropping 15% and in sharp contrast = to the=20 rise in existing home sales previously reported (up 16.2%). Seasonal = adjustments=20 may be affecting both of these results.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Consumer confidence surprised analysts with a = drop to 94.1=20 from 97.8, expected was a drop to 97.0. The level of unemployment, and = its=20 continuing effects on consumers, was blamed.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Mr. Greenspan was cautiously optimistic on the = economic=20 recovery on Wednesday. His comments continue to confirm to me an = extraordinarily=20 mild "recession" (technically never happened), but with a slow recovery. = The=20 upside is that inflation remains a non-event, and any inflation fighting = rate=20 hikes are likely way off, at least well into the second half of 2002, = and quite=20 possibly not until some time in 2003.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Durable Goods orders soared to 2.6% growth in = January,=20 doubling expectations of a 1.3% rise. December was revised to 0.9%.=20 </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Both Personal Income and Personal Spending rose = 0.4% in=20 January.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>4th quarter GDP was revised sharply higher to = 1.4% from=20 0.2% (expectations was 0.9%), further affirming the absence of any real=20 recession. </FONT><FONT face=3DArial>Even assuming a recession = really started=20 in March using new growth standards, this remains one of the shortest = and=20 mildest recessions in history.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Chicago's Purchasing Managers Index, which often = sets the=20 tone for the nation, not only rose for the first time in eighteen months = but=20 jumped into positive territory, climbing to 53.1 from 45.1. Expected was = 47.0. And ISM (formerly NAPM) reported that their index jumped from = 49.9 in=20 December to actual expansion at 54.7 in January. First time since July = 2000 that=20 it is back over 50.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>Thought I might be able to stop my Japan bashing for a week. = Despite=20 all odds, and their disappointment in the lack of decisive action (or = even=20 words) in the latest anti-deflation govt proposal, the Nikkei rallied = nearly 3%=20 on their Wednesday, to finish decisively over 10K. OK, the Nikkei wins, = the DOW=20 30 loses the race. A strong yen still wins out, but I don't trust it for = long.=20 And on Thursday, another rally over 2% as the shorters began to cover to = comply=20 with new and more restrictive rules on shorting. Didn't last, tho. A = thousand=20 point gain in a week, and I don't trust one inch of it, not a bit came = from=20 improvement in fundies, improving economy or resolution of = the bad=20 bank loans.=20 <HR> </DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABEES</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" = weeks=20 duration. Should I see a specific CANSLIM pattern, such as a c&h, = double=20 bottom, or a LLUR, I will mention it.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 expanded sharply during the past week.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ALLY - trying to build the handle on a short=20 cup?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CFFN - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CHKE - B6+, declining volume</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CMC - B9, declining volume</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CUNO - B7</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DCOM - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DF - weak double bottom</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DLX - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FCEA - B5+</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>HRB - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MBFI - B8, trying to b/o</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MBWM - B3+</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MCL - volatile LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MFA - B7</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ODP - B2+</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PETM - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>POSS - b/o Friday on 4X ADV, in my VR = fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RMCI - sharp correction on Friday, watch Monday, = I own, in=20 my VR Fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RYAN - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>STAR - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SWTX - B8, microcap, low price</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>TASR - 7 week consolidation, microcap, in my VR=20 fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:003301c1c23e$8452bbe0$30a08fd0@D73PS211" align=3Dbaseline=20 border=3D0></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20 TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_0035_01C1C214.9B7EFDD0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_0034_01C1C214.9B7EFDD0 Content-Type: image/gif; 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