Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Tue, 5 Mar 2002 21:20:14 -0500
Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview larry l worden
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Hi Larry,
This was my feeble attempt to find a way to deal with the extraordinary =
effect upon the market from the 9/11 attacks and subsequent 4 day halt =
in trading.
RAT =3D Resuming A Trend
CAT =3D Continuing A Trend
RAT was intended to mark a chart that initially sold off after trading =
resumed on 9/17, then resumed it prior pattern. CAT was used to mark a =
chart that basically didn't even flinch, just had this big hole in the =
chart where trading was halted. Just another one of my quirky shorthand, =
needed less as time goes by (so long as we do not have another =
catastrophic event). For both, I excluded a week prior to 9/11, and up =
to two weeks (but much preferably only one week) after trading resumed =
on 9/17. Both were an attempt to bridge the gap and chaos of that =
period, and focus on the overall chart pattern.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: larry l worden=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Cc: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, March 05, 2002 2:10 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Tom, what does CAT and RAT stand for? I have been trying to figure it =
out for some time. Thanks for the weekly posts. When ever you have time. =
Larry
On Sat, 2 Mar 2002 18:03:50 -0500 "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net> =
writes:
ECONOMICS
As just one more measure of consumer confidence levels, sales of =
existing homes jumped 16% to a new record. Annualized rate was 6.04 =
million units, expectation was for 5.2 million. However, sales of New =
Homes in January fell far more than expected, dropping 15% and in sharp =
contrast to the rise in existing home sales previously reported (up =
16.2%). Seasonal adjustments may be affecting both of these results.
Consumer confidence surprised analysts with a drop to 94.1 from 97.8, =
expected was a drop to 97.0. The level of unemployment, and its =
continuing effects on consumers, was blamed.
Mr. Greenspan was cautiously optimistic on the economic recovery on =
Wednesday. His comments continue to confirm to me an extraordinarily =
mild "recession" (technically never happened), but with a slow recovery. =
The upside is that inflation remains a non-event, and any inflation =
fighting rate hikes are likely way off, at least well into the second =
half of 2002, and quite possibly not until some time in 2003.
Durable Goods orders soared to 2.6% growth in January, doubling =
expectations of a 1.3% rise. December was revised to 0.9%.=20
Both Personal Income and Personal Spending rose 0.4% in January.
4th quarter GDP was revised sharply higher to 1.4% from 0.2% =
(expectations was 0.9%), further affirming the absence of any real =
recession. Even assuming a recession really started in March using new =
growth standards, this remains one of the shortest and mildest =
recessions in history.
Chicago's Purchasing Managers Index, which often sets the tone for the =
nation, not only rose for the first time in eighteen months but jumped =
into positive territory, climbing to 53.1 from 45.1. Expected was 47.0. =
And ISM (formerly NAPM) reported that their index jumped from 49.9 in =
December to actual expansion at 54.7 in January. First time since July =
2000 that it is back over 50.
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -----
JAPAN
Thought I might be able to stop my Japan bashing for a week. Despite =
all odds, and their disappointment in the lack of decisive action (or =
even words) in the latest anti-deflation govt proposal, the Nikkei =
rallied nearly 3% on their Wednesday, to finish decisively over 10K. OK, =
the Nikkei wins, the DOW 30 loses the race. A strong yen still wins out, =
but I don't trust it for long. And on Thursday, another rally over 2% as =
the shorters began to cover to comply with new and more restrictive =
rules on shorting. Didn't last, tho. A thousand point gain in a week, =
and I don't trust one inch of it, not a bit came from improvement in =
fundies, improving economy or resolution of the bad bank loans.=20
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -----
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABEES
As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks duration. Should I =
see a specific CANSLIM pattern, such as a c&h, double bottom, or a LLUR, =
I will mention it.
The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend expanded sharply =
during the past week.
ALLY - trying to build the handle on a short cup?
CFFN - LLUR
CHKE - B6+, declining volume
CMC - B9, declining volume
CUNO - B7
DCOM - B4
DF - weak double bottom
DLX - LLUR
FCEA - B5+
HRB - LLUR
MBFI - B8, trying to b/o
MBWM - B3+
MCL - volatile LLUR
MFA - B7
ODP - B2+
PETM - LLUR
POSS - b/o Friday on 4X ADV, in my VR fund
RMCI - sharp correction on Friday, watch Monday, I own, in my VR Fund
RYAN - LLUR
STAR - B4
SWTX - B8, microcap, low price
TASR - 7 week consolidation, microcap, in my VR fund
Happy Hunting,
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Hi Larry,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This was my feeble attempt to find a way to deal =
with the=20
extraordinary effect upon the market from the 9/11 attacks and =
subsequent 4 day=20
halt in trading.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RAT =3D Resuming A Trend</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CAT =3D Continuing A Trend</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RAT was intended to mark a chart that initially =
sold off=20
after trading resumed on 9/17, then resumed it prior pattern. CAT was =
used to=20
mark a chart that basically didn't even flinch, just had this big hole =
in the=20
chart where trading was halted. Just another one of my quirky shorthand, =
needed=20
less as time goes by (so long as we do not have another catastrophic =
event). For=20
both, I excluded a week prior to 9/11, and up to two weeks (but much =
preferably=20
only one week) after trading resumed on 9/17. Both were an attempt to =
bridge the=20
gap and chaos of that period, and focus on the overall chart=20
pattern.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Dworden33@juno.com href=3D"mailto:worden33@juno.com">larry l =
worden</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Cc:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, March 05, 2002 2:10 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Tom, what does CAT and RAT stand for? I have been trying to figure =
it out=20
for some time. Thanks for the weekly posts. When ever you have=20
time. Larry</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>On Sat, 2 Mar 2002 18:03:50 -0500 "Tom Worley" <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A>> =
writes:</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 10px; MARGIN-LEFT: 10px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px =
solid">
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As just one more measure of consumer =
confidence levels,=20
sales of existing homes jumped 16% to a new record. Annualized rate =
was 6.04=20
million units, expectation was for 5.2 million. However, sales of New =
Homes in=20
January fell far more than expected, dropping 15% and in sharp =
contrast to the=20
rise in existing home sales previously reported (up 16.2%). Seasonal=20
adjustments may be affecting both of these results.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Consumer confidence surprised analysts with a =
drop to=20
94.1 from 97.8, expected was a drop to 97.0. The level of =
unemployment, and=20
its continuing effects on consumers, was blamed.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Mr. Greenspan was cautiously optimistic on the =
economic=20
recovery on Wednesday. His comments continue to confirm to me an=20
extraordinarily mild "recession" (technically never happened), but =
with a slow=20
recovery. The upside is that inflation remains a non-event, and any =
inflation=20
fighting rate hikes are likely way off, at least well into the second =
half of=20
2002, and quite possibly not until some time in 2003.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Durable Goods orders soared to 2.6% growth in =
January,=20
doubling expectations of a 1.3% rise. December was revised to 0.9%.=20
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Both Personal Income and Personal Spending =
rose 0.4% in=20
January.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>4th quarter GDP was revised sharply higher to =
1.4% from=20
0.2% (expectations was 0.9%), further affirming the absence of any =
real=20
recession. </FONT><FONT face=3DArial>Even assuming a recession =
really=20
started in March using new growth standards, this remains one of the =
shortest=20
and mildest recessions in history.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Chicago's Purchasing Managers Index, which =
often sets=20
the tone for the nation, not only rose for the first time in eighteen =
months=20
but jumped into positive territory, climbing to 53.1 from 45.1. =
Expected was=20
47.0. And ISM (formerly NAPM) reported that their index jumped =
from 49.9=20
in December to actual expansion at 54.7 in January. First time since =
July 2000=20
that it is back over 50.</DIV>
<DIV>
<HR>
</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></DIV>
<DIV>Thought I might be able to stop my Japan bashing for a week. =
Despite=20
all odds, and their disappointment in the lack of decisive action (or =
even=20
words) in the latest anti-deflation govt proposal, the Nikkei rallied =
nearly=20
3% on their Wednesday, to finish decisively over 10K. OK, the Nikkei =
wins, the=20
DOW 30 loses the race. A strong yen still wins out, but I don't trust =
it for=20
long. And on Thursday, another rally over 2% as the shorters began to =
cover to=20
comply with new and more restrictive rules on shorting. Didn't last, =
tho. A=20
thousand point gain in a week, and I don't trust one inch of it, not a =
bit=20
came from improvement in fundies, improving economy or resolution =
of=20
the bad bank loans.=20
<HR>
</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST=20
WANNABEES</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" =
weeks=20
duration. Should I see a specific CANSLIM pattern, such as a c&h, =
double=20
bottom, or a LLUR, I will mention it.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this =
weekend=20
expanded sharply during the past week.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ALLY - trying to build the handle on a short=20
cup?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CFFN - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CHKE - B6+, declining volume</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CMC - B9, declining volume</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CUNO - B7</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DCOM - B4</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DF - weak double bottom</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DLX - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FCEA - B5+</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>HRB - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MBFI - B8, trying to b/o</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MBWM - B3+</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MCL - volatile LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MFA - B7</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ODP - B2+</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PETM - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>POSS - b/o Friday on 4X ADV, in my VR =
fund</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RMCI - sharp correction on Friday, watch =
Monday, I own,=20
in my VR Fund</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RYAN - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>STAR - B4</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SWTX - B8, microcap, low price</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>TASR - 7 week consolidation, microcap, in my =
VR=20
fund</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20
src=3D"cid:002f01c1c4b5$73050cc0$3700a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline=20
border=3D0></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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