Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - commentary early
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2002 08:43:43 -0500
Previous Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride "Tim Fisher"
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0029_01C1C67D.5ACA65F0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_002A_01C1C67D.5ACA65F0" - ------=_NextPart_001_002A_01C1C67D.5ACA65F0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable In light of the strong Unemployment Report this morning, I am publishing = this early rather than including it in my review of stock charts. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ECONOMICS In the latest sign of a recovering economy, ISM reports that the service = sector (non-manufacturing) moved solidly into expansion territory with a = rating of 58.7 from 49.6 in January. Expectations were for 51.0. So now = both manufacturing and non-manufacturing are solidly into expansion, = will be interesting to see the next several months of employment = figures. Orders to US factories in January rose by 1.6% overall, slightly better = than expectations of 1.5%. December was up 0.7%, and was the 3rd = increase in four months. Computers and electronics were up 1.9% on top = of December's 3.6% hike. Computers alone were up 4.8% while = semiconductor orders were up 14.2%. Productivity grew by a gigantic 5.2% in Q4 compared to prior estimates = of a respectable 3.5%. Expectations were for only an improvement to = 4.3%. Unit labor costs fell 2.7% (best since Q4 of 1999), while = manufacturing work hours fell a stunning 10.4% (making the latest = manufacturing data showing expansion in progress all the more = significant). The biggest news of the week was the monthly Unemployment Report for = February. Instead of bouncing back up to 5.8% unemployment, it dropped = another tenth percentage to 5.5%, continuing the decline seen in = January. A total of 66 thousand jobs were actually added, while = expectations had been for a flat result on this criteria. In January, = the revised number was a loss of 126K jobs. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- GLOBAL ECONOMY OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) continues = to report economic recovery on a global basis. OECD consists of 30 = member nations, mostly developed countries, and reports that in January = its Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) rose 1.1 points to 114.5 for the = third straight month. The six month rate of change improved for the = fourth consecutive month. Included in the nations that showed = consecutive month improvements in the six month rate of change of the = CLI were USA, Euro Zone, and Japan. Other nations showing improved rate = of change included Germany, France and Canada. The significance of the = six month rate of change is that OECD has found that a peak in GDP = occurs about nine months after a peak in the rate of change figure. So = current figures clearly paint a picture of global economic recovery in = progress. With the rate of change still improving, a peak has not yet = been reached, and with a nine month lag time in GDP results, that takes = us through 2002. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- BIG 4 AND A FRACTION?? Among the major clients that have already fled Andersen are Delta, Merck = and Freddie Mac. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WHO'S HE KIDDING (besides himself, that is)?? Japanese Prime Minister is quoted as saying (presumably in Japanese) = that the Japanese market's gain of nearly 25% in recent weeks is because = of the government's resolve to prevent any financial crises. He thinks = it's finally being understood. Of course, there was no details in that = resolve, no teeth, just cheap words. From just about everyone else's = perspective, this pain adverse government was willing to muddle along in = their worst recession in over 20 years while waiting on the USA in = particular, and the globe in general, to recover economically and bail = them out. As the thinking goes, an economic recovery in the USA hypes = expectations of renewed exports by Japan. Nikkei responds to = expectations, inflating the banks capital portfolios. Domestic corps = have renewed business exporting to USA, and can resume payments on their = defaulted loans with the banks, hence they are no longer non-performing. = Voila - the banks bad debt problem vanishes virtually overnight. Doesn't = matter that nothing changed in the true fundamentals, banks are still = saddled with excessive and non-performing debt. It's much like the = economic stimulus plan that USA's Congress couldn't pass after 9/11. = Doesn't matter, someone else (Greenspan) took care of the problem. And, = of course, didn't hurt the Nikkei at all that they tightened rules on = shorting stocks, causing a short squeeze. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- GREENSPAN In an even more optimistic style, Mr. G tells Congress that things are = even better than just a week ago - "The recent evidence increasingly = suggests that an economic expansion is already well under way, although = an array of influences unique to this business cycle seems likely to = moderate its speed,". Too bad the markets were more focused on taking = short term profits than viewing the longer term picture. Just a week = ago, Mr. G saw "firming" in the economy, suggesting we had only bottomed = out. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_002A_01C1C67D.5ACA65F0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2713.1100" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In light of the strong Unemployment Report this = morning, I=20 am publishing this early rather than including it in my review of stock = charts. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In the latest sign of a recovering economy, ISM = reports=20 that the service sector (non-manufacturing) moved solidly into expansion = territory with a rating of 58.7 from 49.6 in January. Expectations were = for=20 51.0. So now both manufacturing and non-manufacturing are solidly into=20 expansion, will be interesting to see the next several months of = employment=20 figures.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Orders to US factories in January rose by 1.6% = overall,=20 slightly better than expectations of 1.5%. December was up 0.7%, and was = the 3rd=20 increase in four months. Computers and electronics were up 1.9% on top = of=20 December's 3.6% hike. Computers alone were up 4.8% while semiconductor = orders=20 were up 14.2%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Productivity grew by a gigantic 5.2% in Q4 = compared to=20 prior estimates of a respectable 3.5%. Expectations were for only an = improvement=20 to 4.3%. Unit labor costs fell 2.7% (best since Q4 of 1999), while = manufacturing=20 work hours fell a stunning 10.4% (making the latest manufacturing data = showing=20 expansion in progress all the more significant).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The biggest news of the week was the monthly = Unemployment=20 Report for February. Instead of bouncing back up to 5.8% unemployment, = it=20 dropped another tenth percentage to 5.5%, continuing the decline seen in = January. A total of 66 thousand jobs were actually added, while = expectations had=20 been for a flat result on this criteria. In January, the revised number = was a=20 loss of 126K jobs.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>GLOBAL ECONOMY</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) = continues to=20 report economic recovery on a global basis. OECD consists of 30 member = nations,=20 mostly developed countries, and reports that in January its Composite = Leading=20 Indicator (CLI) rose 1.1 points to 114.5 for the third straight month. = The six=20 month rate of change improved for the fourth consecutive month. Included = in the=20 nations that showed consecutive month improvements in the six month rate = of=20 change of the CLI were USA, Euro Zone, and Japan. Other nations = showing=20 improved rate of change included Germany, France and Canada. The = significance of=20 the six month rate of change is that OECD has found that a peak in GDP = occurs=20 about nine months after a peak in the rate of change figure. So current = figures=20 clearly paint a picture of global economic recovery in progress. With = the rate=20 of change still improving, a peak has not yet been reached, and with a = nine=20 month lag time in GDP results, that takes us through 2002.</DIV></FONT> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>BIG 4 AND A = FRACTION??</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Among the major clients that have already fled = Andersen=20 are Delta, Merck and Freddie Mac.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>WHO'S HE KIDDING</STRONG> (besides himself, that = is)??</DIV> <DIV>Japanese Prime Minister is quoted as saying (presumably in = Japanese) that=20 the Japanese market's gain of nearly 25% in recent weeks is because of = the=20 government's resolve to prevent any financial crises. He thinks it's = finally=20 being understood. Of course, there was no details in that resolve, no = teeth,=20 just cheap words. From just about everyone else's perspective, this pain = adverse=20 government was willing to muddle along in their worst recession in = over 20=20 years while waiting on the USA in particular, and the globe in = general, to=20 recover economically and bail them out. As the thinking goes, an = economic=20 recovery in the USA hypes expectations of renewed exports by Japan. = Nikkei=20 responds to expectations, inflating the banks capital portfolios. = Domestic corps=20 have renewed business exporting to USA, and can resume payments on their = defaulted loans with the banks, hence they are no longer non-performing. = Voila -=20 the banks bad debt problem vanishes virtually overnight. Doesn't matter = that=20 nothing changed in the true fundamentals, banks are still saddled with = excessive=20 and non-performing debt. It's much like the economic stimulus plan that = USA's=20 Congress couldn't pass after 9/11. Doesn't matter, someone else = (Greenspan) took=20 care of the problem. And, of course, didn't hurt the Nikkei at all that = they=20 tightened rules on shorting stocks, causing a short squeeze. <HR> </DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>GREENSPAN</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In an even more optimistic style, Mr. G tells = Congress=20 that things are even better than just a week ago - </FONT><FONT=20 face=3D"Times New Roman"><EM>"The recent evidence increasingly suggests = that an=20 economic expansion is already well under way, although an array of = influences=20 unique to this business cycle seems likely to moderate its speed</EM>,". = <FONT=20 face=3DArial>Too bad the markets were more focused on taking short term = profits=20 than viewing the longer term picture. Just a week ago, Mr. G saw = "firming" in=20 the economy, suggesting we had only bottomed out.</FONT> <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:002801c1c6a7$43a06df0$3700a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline=20 border=3D0></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20 TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_002A_01C1C67D.5ACA65F0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_0029_01C1C67D.5ACA65F0 Content-Type: image/gif; name="USflag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <002801c1c6a7$43a06df0$3700a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODdhSwBLAPcAAP//////zP/M///MzP/Mmf+ZzP+Zmf+ZZv9mmf9mZsz//8z/zMzM/8zMzMzM mcyZzMyZmcyZZsxmmcxmZsxmM8xmAMwzmcwzZswzM8wzAMwAZswAM8wAAJnM/5nMzJnMmZmZzJmZ mZmZZplmmZlmZplmM5lmAJkzZpkzM5kzAJkAZpkAM5kAAGaZzGaZmWaZZmZmzGZmmWZmZmZmM2Zm AGYzZmYzM2YzAGYAM2YAADOZzDOZmTNmzDNmmTNmZjNmMzMzmTMzZjMzMzMzADMAZjMAMzMAAABm mQBmZgAzmQAzZgAzMwAAZgAAM7sAAKoAAIgAAHcAAFUAAEQAACIAABEAAAAiAAARAP///wAAVQAA RAAAIgAAEe7u7t3d3bu7u6qqqoiIiHd3d1VVVURERCIiIhEREQAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACH5BAAAAAAALAAAAABLAEsA QAj/ALEIHEiwoMGDCBMqXMhwyA0TJlIwnEixokUsD00MYbhkiZKPF0OKzDgkxsceH5Wg7JGkBcog HYN8TOLBC8skSXp0aXBkBZQoOXLgWIHigtELE5KSqEFmTIgGAKJK7ULVSwMZB0n2QKnEBc6tSmQG 8aGyJYicOEG0+BhkLJgGXaTKlepFjBkSEAroLfDgwYC/gL9gRUhyxQoWP3NEiQKFheHHjzdIZhFl CpUpUCCveML5SeQNLKZMYSFZMuTSPqdUyaGQpBgxIcB8mf3lAe0GuL1Q7fJlTBUpjjU/RoECg3EU Un47Lo3apxQjRqQ0NswiYUYjixcHzQ6lOwsWnKGo/xZJfuL18ujTF7yRwoQR9fDjy59fsYrDGzfo 62eoVWVKsjL1AIILRxzx0RJCeOTBTUokAUIDMSSxwgaHRSGFaDk0xhlklF04hRSKZZddDlJkBdEQ PpDlg0llscSiR0qE0MMRaTWQBI009eBDGLHpNldUO4VRBhlgxPWjXF2EQdiJWzGohA8yncQSjUe0 0AJOOQXRxBJBCDGhaaeh9tyXzJVpGhWtnbgCDttNJ9xnFEpBBXaafffdhhP6RAVwZqL2RGVV0LmC dSc+5YVVDdCm6BcN/NVACGQIIQYEBkBgKQR9MdroAA2AIYMZVORgGHObQfFcdNOV9sR7S7q336uE tf/HKqy01mrrrbgSVAV7EJmQX676kQTsfiThlFJYXKWUkwdKLLHFFlsSdKwSi3Vn4azBnnhSW1Km RCNKS2wZQoM5eXEWlknA1WkYYoQBxqFecJqopSTYgMNQZJK6AmsG9TcWWSqBsNURXCX4kU1Y9gDA uUkosZQNNhBn3MQYGGbqnFGQ1qdpUFRhokZckcWVC2E1e5ISNLog8I0trdWsYlB41udmUVBBRRRP 6JvvYR5/PERXKoEF5Vgl99DCty3TmGJHS6BwQlJJHSX1BShQYcOlWGcNgQQkpKnRblaBEcLYb+nW hQAC7FbVF2GMQYYMEGwqL26bxjtACGaM8AVgfPf/DQEZC5HUwAMhhMFj2WqrPZVgQsjwhZFgm20k AF3gHQLf8Ka99hhm2NA1oRoFJRRxpJceJgo2FFFGGF5Q3sWhdNMN2N9lFHkk5V6EMIYQTmkK+hBS MGZnd8R7Bx51yU2BAtRGlY6CZjhUIcS7P+7k6dtPTT6Yz28OR9wJSFGtGp8UPuaZZ9RdfFmIIqp3 3rD0vQ+/fPLPDx+v2NqfHnsp5K///wAMoAAHaJD7EFAku+qVrw54EYdAJAUbYaBFhCXBCZ6oghbU yLQ2qKyGKWELBySJy1LiAjCQTFkt8IISmlCGJpDLWOT6yJcOk4MpGOFD/KKftnrwBTAALCU8PMtH /3zQkY+sbGQtiNADrAKBetlLQ3WCQg1BlJnmbIYyPhvXsXwgG5RgKQQ+aEKCgoCWnNxkRkkIAQTY 1a63JO51nZLBGMRAvSO9Tkn90pYSYiC2aekEBM0SgsEi1KSWfAUlKwAKzIIDmSdIETpSWAHFzGQY /2HkRF9I1kdc0IArDXEMHnHBjAqklhnNyCU+GFsIvtC66nkBDGQogw2eBjUJ2FICWPtcHjX4kVWe sGElNFkYZtICD+CoSkJUQhGGUpypSQ11ZhjDEgUwALv1rQB/a9UQeqjJFHIlCGKYiQeuhJMjjNOD RGQmxdaJARREDzNk0gxqovA7IJrLgzEiIU+w5P8BYzYsBkRcghjgcjupNMBtXyioXLwAOG26oAvk /AgYWKSEL5AzJ11gWAxc0BEiZqZ7qMlBFaIQzzBJ5gkl+p3ZrNJDVTJKcm+MY1PC0ICVwutQavsC GQaaOJyqzQt4/B2YErkYk1JyBacSVfc+sy8qQEFnO4vCb7w2hMfgYDH4elOZ1mSEIthgAreEmljF eoK77K1vgNFLE8tQhhBQ9ZWF4xGmFjUbuQ3gCyQQQufA50ykjHUCNjBCvmaWAyr8BgpUVeQi7cTY 4+VJPFWYwgyXmieR1gCXWrtlvdgqg7L97jWxqSm8YufTqAC1DGN4lwBuetOfhoCtRelr83AAnQyt oe93bMrY8IgnTwpFwQihyhN17ISnChlWVOw8Dg6K4FW8YA23ziMOZBrjWPGYQQytdN3r4LWbR8Wy s3a9axNtUAavSmxilhQISWQzmweAgb11rSlVANAAu9CpfIZBn2Z+G9mM7YwFOQBudEJEPMv8brfF I96daGizKbBPsSICioFhRUGFgCgoFawfBgMHkfRueJce/jBBNCzirMiqxIE7MYqto+IVm7h/LiZI QAAAOw== - ------=_NextPart_000_0029_01C1C67D.5ACA65F0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". 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