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Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride
Date: Sun, 10 Mar 2002 13:08:04 -0800
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UOPX , there are rules and reasons the stock went down. If the
stock had gown up there would be another WON rule as to why it went up,
and it might be featured in IBD. This year investing reminds me of
trying to learn how to spell and following all the rules. "I" before "E"
except if it comes after "C" , then it changes to "E" before "I".
Just an observation. Larry
On Fri, 8 Mar 2002 10:59:33 -0600 "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
writes:
Hi David,
On UOPX--
- -Gap wasn't on earnings news. (I don't go for all gaps.) Gaps have to be
put in context, as some are simply exhaustion gaps.
- -On a gap from a base, earnings news or no, the stock still needs to have
all the right characteristics to be a worthy buy.
- -Even if I'd considered it a worthy buy (which I didn't), a tail on high
volume near/at a high is a bad sign. Two tails in a row is a very bad
sign.
The new DGO has weekly as well as daily charts, but even without the new
beta, I think all chart review should be from both a near term,
up-close-and-personal view for exact timing of the buy but also a
mile-high view of the last year or so to put the recent action in
context. This is especially important for assessing whether the new base
is a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th stage.
Katherine
- ----- Original Message -----
From: david frank
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 10:25 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride
that gap strategy didn't work well on the recent breakout of UOPX. WON is
talking about a 4% average loss-he just goes with the flow-it is silly to
take a 8% loss on each losing position. my problem with DGO -doesn't show
enough of the left side to see if there was a previous base. david
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 9:18 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride
Hi Duke,
Just a couple of misc. comments to add to your post:
On gaps up---This is an excellent entry strategy when the stock gaps open
out of a base and on earnings news. The best way to catch them is to know
which stocks are basing, are due to announce earnings, then place a buy
stop-limit, or be ready to take action live on the B/O that morning. In
general, stocks that gap up on strong volume and earnings news will
continue that move, so I don't hesitate to take them even if they are
beyond the 5% of pivot rule if the stock has all the right
characteristics. (I picked up this trick from a '96 IBD article on gaps,
later reinforced by Gary Kaltbaum's gap strategy)
On WON's 4% losses--at both the IBD seminars I attended, I remember
comments from WON and his presenters in which they noted that they were
able to spot whether a breakout was going to work almost immediately.
They are so good at reading Price/Volume action that they can know
whether they are wrong about a breakout long before it hits the 8% rule.
I've also heard this same comment from other CANSLIM-style hedge fund
managers such as Greg Kuhn, Tim Truebenbach and Kevin Marder. The second
thing they do is to set a sell rule that will not allow them *any* loss
once a stock has successfully broken out. So, if the stock breaks out and
then retraces on light volume to the pivot, fine. But if the breakout
succeeds and then begins to fail on high volume, they are out long before
it retraces and at the very least, out at purchase price. I think these
are subtleties lost when CANSLIMers automatically assume that every
purchase should be protected with *exactly* an 8% loss. I think the sell
rules are more complex than that, but that doesn't mean they aren't
consistent or repeatable.
Katherine
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Duke Miller
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 8:42 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] A short ride
Mike:
If I may, some observations (albeit laced with a touch of cynicism, which
I
hope is acceptable herein...in moderation, of course...).
My recollection is, Mike, is to expect just that scenario you've
described
below, but ONLY when it CLOSES at the BOTTOM of the fall on high volume.
Which poses a question: If it's noon, the stock is trading in the bottom
of
it's range on high volume, should you sell? (Those of you who use stops
don't need to answer that...you're out already!) But what if it rebounds
an
hour later, and subsequently closes down somewhat, but higher than where
it
was at noon? Did I screw up selling too soon? The answer: See
tomorrow's
chart, then decide! Then you'd find that what it did (pullback slightly
after breakout) was normal!
"Remember when's" are more the rule than the exception these days. A few
recent examples:
How many remember this one (from my notes at a seminar ten years ago):
"Only
buy a stock after it CLOSES above its breakout on 150% or greater volume.
Then buy it at the next day's opening price." Hmm. I know the volatile
90's necessitated a change, but the shakeouts I've encountered since
January1 have caused me to reflect on this old rule.
Then, just the other day, in Investor's Corner, "Only buy a stock within
5%
of its pivot point, unless it gaps up at the open." So if it gaps up at
the
open is it okay to buy it if it's up 10% mid-day? I think I know the
answer: Only if TOMORROW's says you should have.
Then comes this a.m.'s Big Picture: "Defense contractors, home builders
and
some retailers that defied the market's recent correction are too
extended
above their prior bases to buy without risking a shakeout." I distinctly
remember a recent comment therein that these are the stocks to consider,
because they're done so well in a down market! You know, high Relative
Strength?
Finally, and hopefully this is only bordering on blasphemy: Today's
Investors Corner says: "IBD founder William O'Neil says he's right only
about half the time. The secret to his success? At an IBD advanced
seminar
last year, O'Neil said he's kept his losses at an average of about 4%.
But
when he finds a winner...." Excuse me, isn't 4% about half the 8%
"insurance" he recommends? Could this be a misprint?
I know this only proves we're all constantly developing our own variances
on
a theme. It's like I told my wife this morning: "You know, I think I'm
going to get this whole process nailed down to perfection the day before
I
leave this world!" Ain't hindsight a wonderful thing? Now where did I
put
tomorrow's charts???
Happy hunting...
Duke
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Mike Lucero
> Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 5:51 AM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride
>
>
> I seem to remember an article where they said don't worry if a stock
falls
> hard back toward it's pivot, even on increasing volume. Hmm.
>
> Mike
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Bill Triffet" <btriffet@earthlink.net>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Thursday, March 07, 2002 11:47 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride
>
>
> Oops sorry Mike. I meant to get back to you. Thankfully Katherine
> stepped up
> to the plate with the article.
> Btw, today's action confirms the failed breakout. Looked like a
> great stock
> at the time though...
>
> -Bill
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Thursday, March 07, 2002 11:26 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride
>
>
> Hi Mike,
>
> I've uploaded a copy of the article to:
>
> http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/BreakoutReversals030602.jpg
>
> Katherine
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Mike Lucero
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 7:09 PM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride
>
>
> What did it say?
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Bill Triffet" <btriffet@earthlink.net>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 12:27 PM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride
>
>
> UOPX sure looks like another example of today's Investors
> Corner - Beware
> Of
> Reversal On Breakout. A tail with large volume. I got out as well.
>
> -Bill Triffet
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Tim Fisher" <Tim@orerockon.com>
> To: <canslim@mail.xmission.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 9:37 AM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] A short ride
>
>
> > Well that was certainly a short ride with UOPX and POSS.
> Makes me wonder
> > whether this is a big cap rally now. All after I put in orders for
the
> open
> > today for NTBK and RBMG (neither of which is following suit,
> thankfully).
> > Anyway just really wanted to test the server since I don't
> see any email
> > from the group today.
>
>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
>
>
>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
>
>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
>
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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<DIV> UOPX , there =
are=20
rules and reasons the stock went down. If the stock had gown up there would=
be=20
another WON rule as to why it went up, and it might be featured in=20
IBD. This year investing reminds me of trying to learn how to =
spell=20
and following all the rules. "I" before "E" except if it comes after "C" , =
then=20
it changes to "E" before "I". Just an=20
observation. Larry</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>On Fri, 8 Mar 2002 10:59:33 -0600 "Katherine Malm" <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">kmalm@earthlink.net</A>> writes:</=
DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 10px; MARGIN-LEFT: 10px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px =
solid">
<DIV>Hi David,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>On UOPX--</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>-Gap wasn't on earnings news. (I don't go for all gaps.) Gaps have =
to be=20
put in context, as some are simply exhaustion gaps.</DIV>
<DIV>-On a gap from a base, earnings news or no, the stock still needs to=
have=20
all the right characteristics to be a worthy buy.</DIV>
<DIV>-Even if I'd considered it a worthy buy (which I didn't), a tail on =
high=20
volume near/at a high is a bad sign. Two tails in a row is a very =
bad=20
sign.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The new DGO has weekly as well as daily charts, but even without the=
new=20
beta, I think all chart review should be from both a near term,=20
up-close-and-personal view for exact timing of the buy but also a mile-=
high=20
view of the last year or so to put the recent action in context. This is=
=20
especially important for assessing whether the new base is a 1st, 2nd, =
3rd or=20
4th stage.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-=
LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>=
From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dcamelot.homes@charter.net=20
href=3D"mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net">david frank</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.=
xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</=
A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, March 08, 2002 10:=
25=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] A short=20
ride</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>that gap strategy didn't work well on =
the=20
recent breakout of UOPX. WON is talking about a 4% average loss-he just=
goes=20
with the flow-it is silly to take a 8% loss on each losing position. my=
=20
problem with DGO -doesn't show enough of the left side to see if there =
was a=20
previous base. david</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B=
>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">=
Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com=
</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, March 08, 2002 9=
:18=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] A short=
=20
ride</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Duke,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Just a couple of misc. comments to add to your post:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>On gaps up---This is an excellent entry strategy when the stock =
gaps=20
open out of a base and on earnings news. The best way to catch them =
is to=20
know which stocks are basing, are due to announce earnings, then =
place a=20
buy stop-limit, or be ready to take action live on the B/O that =
morning.=20
In general, stocks that gap up on strong volume and earnings news =
will=20
continue that move, so I don't hesitate to take them even if =
they=20
are beyond the 5% of pivot rule if the stock has all the right=20
characteristics. (I picked up this trick from a '96 IBD article on =
gaps,=20
later reinforced by Gary Kaltbaum's gap strategy)</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>On WON's 4% losses--at both the IBD seminars I attended, I =
remember=20
comments from WON and his presenters in which they noted that they =
were=20
able to spot whether a breakout was going to work almost immediately.=
They=20
are so good at reading Price/Volume action that they can know whether=
they=20
are wrong about a breakout long before it hits the 8% rule. I've also=
=20
heard this same comment from other CANSLIM-style hedge fund managers =
such=20
as Greg Kuhn, Tim Truebenbach and Kevin Marder. The second thing they=
do=20
is to set a sell rule that will not allow them *any* loss once a =
stock has=20
successfully broken out. So, if the stock breaks out and then =
retraces on=20
light volume to the pivot, fine. But if the breakout succeeds and =
then=20
begins to fail on high volume, they are out long before it retraces =
and at=20
the very least, out at purchase price. I think these are subtleties =
lost=20
when CANSLIMers automatically assume that every purchase should be=20
protected with *exactly* an 8% loss. I think the sell rules are more=
=20
complex than that, but that doesn't mean they aren't consistent or=20
repeatable.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">=
<B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddukemill@tampabay.rr.com=20
href=3D"mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com">Duke Miller</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.=
com</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, March 08, 2002=
8:42=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] A =
short=20
ride</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Mike:<BR><BR>If I may, some observations (albeit =
laced=20
with a touch of cynicism, which I<BR>hope is acceptable herein...in=
=20
moderation, of course...).<BR><BR>My recollection is, Mike, is to =
expect=20
just that scenario you've described<BR>below, but ONLY when it =
CLOSES at=20
the BOTTOM of the fall on high volume.<BR>Which poses a question:&=
nbsp;=20
If it's noon, the stock is trading in the bottom of<BR>it's range =
on=20
high volume, should you sell? (Those of you who use stops<BR>don't =
need=20
to answer that...you're out already!) But what if it rebounds=
=20
an<BR>hour later, and subsequently closes down somewhat, but higher=
than=20
where it<BR>was at noon? Did I screw up selling too soon?&=
nbsp;=20
The answer: See tomorrow's<BR>chart, then decide! Then =
you'd=20
find that what it did (pullback slightly<BR>after breakout) was=20
normal!<BR><BR>"Remember when's" are more the rule than the =
exception=20
these days. A few<BR>recent examples:<BR><BR>How many =
remember=20
this one (from my notes at a seminar ten years ago): "Only<BR>buy a=
=20
stock after it CLOSES above its breakout on 150% or greater=20
volume.<BR>Then buy it at the next day's opening price." =20
Hmm. I know the volatile<BR>90's necessitated a change, but =
the=20
shakeouts I've encountered since<BR>January1 have caused me to =
reflect=20
on this old rule.<BR><BR>Then, just the other day, in Investor's =
Corner,=20
"Only buy a stock within 5%<BR>of its pivot point, unless it gaps =
up at=20
the open." So if it gaps up at the<BR>open is it okay to buy =
it if=20
it's up 10% mid-day? I think I know the<BR>answer: Only=
if=20
TOMORROW's says you should have.<BR><BR>Then comes this a.m.'s Big=
=20
Picture: "Defense contractors, home builders and<BR>some retailers =
that=20
defied the market's recent correction are too extended<BR>above =
their=20
prior bases to buy without risking a shakeout." I=20
distinctly<BR>remember a recent comment therein that these are the=
=20
stocks to consider,<BR>because they're done so well in a down=20
market! You know, high Relative<BR>Strength?<BR><BR>Finally, =
and=20
hopefully this is only bordering on blasphemy: =20
Today's<BR>Investors Corner says: "IBD founder William O'Neil=
says=20
he's right only<BR>about half the time. The secret to his=20
success? At an IBD advanced seminar<BR>last year, O'Neil said=
he's=20
kept his losses at an average of about 4%. But<BR>when he =
finds a=20
winner...." Excuse me, isn't 4% about half the 8%<BR>"=
insurance"=20
he recommends? Could this be a misprint?<BR><BR>I know this =
only=20
proves we're all constantly developing our own variances on<BR>a=20
theme. It's like I told my wife this morning: "You know=
, I=20
think I'm<BR>going to get this whole process nailed down to =
perfection=20
the day before I<BR>leave this world!" Ain't hindsight a =
wonderful=20
thing? Now where did I put<BR>tomorrow's charts???<BR><BR>=
Happy=20
hunting...<BR><BR>Duke<BR><BR><BR>> -----Original=20
Message-----<BR>> From: <A=20
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@=
lists.xmission.com</A><BR>>=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Mike=20
Lucero<BR>> Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 5:51 AM<BR>> To: <A=
=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.=
com</A><BR>>=20
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride<BR>><BR>><BR>> I seem =
to=20
remember an article where they said don't worry if a stock falls<BR=
>>=20
hard back toward it's pivot, even on increasing volume.=20
Hmm.<BR>><BR>> Mike<BR>> ----- Original Message -----<BR>&=
gt;=20
From: "Bill Triffet" <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:btriffet@earthlink.net">btriffet@earthlink.net</A>&=
gt;<BR>>=20
To: <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.=
com</A>><BR>>=20
Sent: Thursday, March 07, 2002 11:47 AM<BR>> Subject: Re: [=
CANSLIM] A=20
short ride<BR>><BR>><BR>> Oops sorry Mike. I meant to get =
back=20
to you. Thankfully Katherine<BR>> stepped up<BR>> to the =
plate=20
with the article.<BR>> Btw, today's action confirms the failed=20
breakout. Looked like a<BR>> great stock<BR>> at the time=20
though...<BR>><BR>> -Bill<BR>><BR>> ----- Original =
Message=20
-----<BR>> From: "Katherine Malm" <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">kmalm@earthlink.net</A>><BR>=
>=20
To: <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.=
com</A>><BR>>=20
Sent: Thursday, March 07, 2002 11:26 AM<BR>> Subject: Re: [=
CANSLIM] A=20
short ride<BR>><BR>><BR>> Hi Mike,<BR>><BR>> I've=20
uploaded a copy of the article to:<BR>><BR>> <A=20
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/BreakoutReversals030602.jpg">=
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/BreakoutReversals030602.jpg</A><BR>><BR>&=
gt;=20
Katherine<BR>> ----- Original Message=20
-----<BR>> From: Mike Lucero<BR>> To:=
<A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.=
com</A><BR>> =20
Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 7:09 PM<BR>> Subject=
: Re:=20
[CANSLIM] A short ride<BR>><BR>><BR>> What did=
it=20
say?<BR>> ----- Original Message=20
-----<BR>> From: "Bill Triffet" <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:btriffet@earthlink.net">btriffet@earthlink.net</A>&=
gt;<BR>> =20
To: <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.=
com</A>><BR>> =20
Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 12:27 PM<BR>> =
Subject:=20
Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride<BR>><BR>><BR>> UOPX=
sure=20
looks like another example of today's Investors<BR>> Corner -=20
Beware<BR>> Of<BR>> Reversal On Breakout. A tail =
with=20
large volume. I got out as well.<BR>><BR>> -Bill=
=20
Triffet<BR>><BR>><BR>> ----- Original Message=
=20
-----<BR>> From: "Tim Fisher" <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:Tim@orerockon.com">Tim@orerockon.com</A>><BR>>=
=20
To: <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@mail.xmission.com">canslim@mail.xmission.com=
</A>><BR>> =20
Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 9:37 AM<BR>> Subject=
:=20
[CANSLIM] A short ride<BR>><BR>><BR>> > =
Well=20
that was certainly a short ride with UOPX and POSS.<BR>> Makes =
me=20
wonder<BR>> > whether this is a big cap rally now=
. All=20
after I put in orders for the<BR>> =20
open<BR>> > today for NTBK and RBMG (neither of =
which=20
is following suit,<BR>> thankfully).<BR>> > =
Anyway=20
just really wanted to test the server since I don't<BR>> see any=
=20
email<BR>> > from the group=20
today.<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>> -<BR>> &=
nbsp;=20
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-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your=20
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-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>>  =
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