Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - dedicated to Cassie
Date: Sat, 16 Mar 2002 09:43:23 -0500
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I lost my oldest cat early this morning, Cassandra was my wife's pick =
over 17 years ago, but she could not beat cancer despite two recent =
operations. She was not an easy cat to love, but she leaves a hole in my =
soul nonetheless. She was a good girl right to the end, and did not =
force me to put her down, she picked her time and place. I cannot count =
the number of WWW columns she interrupted because she needed some =
attention, I only wish she could interrupt many more. My wife died over =
six years ago, and this was a fresh visit to that loss.
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JAPAN
Despite the 28% gain in the Nikkei in just five weeks, the fundamentals =
of Japanese economy are little improved. The latest report on private =
sector machinery orders showed a drop of 15.6% in January, far worst =
than expected, and indicates weak capital spending in the near future. =
Meanwhile, GDP dropped 1.2% in the last quarter of 2001, and nat'l debt =
was already 140% of GDP, largest ratio of the top 7 industrialized =
nations. Both are the worst since the end of WWII.=20
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------
ANDERSEN
Scored another record, they were the auditors for HIH, an Australian =
insurance company and that country's largest ever bankruptcy. More =
lawsuits against Andersen are expected. Meanwhile the company talked to =
Deloitte about a possible merger, or purchase of assets after they find =
a way to protect the buyer from Enron and other liabilities (one =
possibility - bankruptcy!!). And on Monday, FedEx made it official, =
dumped Andersen for Deloitte. Many more are following, and looks to me =
like the firm is ended. Deloitte ended talks on a possible buyout as did =
one other of the top "5", and the other two are not even interested in =
initiating talks. Seems the potential liability is just too great. So =
goes one of the formerly great names in the accounting industry. =
Besides, why pay for clients when they will come to you for free?
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------
ECONOMICS
Forecasts for Q1 GDP are rising fast, already up a full percent to 2.6%. =
Noted for unexpected strength are consumer spending and business =
investment.=20
Inventories fell less than expected in January (0.2% vs 0.4% expected), =
however overall sales increased 1.2%. This was the biggest sales =
increase since June 2000. Meanwhile retail sales increased only 0.3% =
instead of the expected 0.9%. Much of the difference came from auto =
sales. Without autos, expected was 0.5% and actual was 0.2%.
FOMC meets on Tuesday, and is widely expected to eliminate the easing =
bias at a minimum. Expectations now are nearly 100% that they will raise =
rates at the May meeting. And using the futures as a forecasting =
barometer suggests that rates, presently at 1.75%, will be up to 3% by =
the end of the year. To me, so far the economic recovery appears to be =
stronger than Mr. G was expecting, and may open a window of opportunity =
for his often speculated retirement. That would likely be disruptive to =
the markets for the short term, at least.
Univ. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment gauge soared for February to 95 =
from 90.7. Expectations were for a gain to 93. Both the Current =
Conditions and the Expectations Indexes were also up.
And Industrial Production rose 0.4% for February, double the =
expectations. Capacity Utilization was up slightly.
The PPI rose an expected 0.2%, while the core rate was unchanged against =
expectations of a 0.1% rise.
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- -------
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
As always, a Bx simply means a flat line "B"ase over "x" weeks, IMO. =
Should I see other familiar patterns, such as a c&h, double bottom, =
LLUR, etc., then I will say so.
The population of stocks I will be reviewing continues to grow slowly, =
but I continue to see deterioration in small/micro cap growth stocks in =
favor of small cap value stocks and mid to large cap stocks. Techs =
continue to fail to show strong and consistent leadership. Homebuilders =
looks to be rolling over finally.
ACS - nice short c&h
AGY - B6
ATPX - high handle
BIO - b/o Friday from short base, volume not convincing
BLUD - holding Wednesday's b/o
CPS - B4
DF - handle on a weak double bottom, volume not convincing
DLX - just continuing on its LLUR way
ESI - decent 8 month c&h
HCBK - B5
LUX - b/o Friday on volume, short base
LYTX - b/o Friday on volume, 3 week base
MCL - LLUR
NFI - saucer
ODP - B4+
OII - B3
PBIX - B7
PEGA - base on base, in my VR Fund, low price, volume
PETM - LLUR
PNG - B3
POSS - trying to b/o from short handle on the cup, in my VR Fund
PPD - on an unpredictable move again
PQE - 9 week consolidation
RAH - LLUR, but with strong earnings growth
RMCF - double bottom on weak volume
SRCL - B3
Happy hunting,
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
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<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I lost</FONT><FONT size=3D2> my oldest cat =
early this=20
morning, Cassandra was my wife's pick over 17 years ago, but she could =
not beat=20
cancer despite two recent operations. She was not an easy cat to love, =
but she=20
leaves a hole in my soul nonetheless. She was a good girl right to the =
end, and=20
did not force me to put her down, she picked her time and place. I =
cannot count=20
the number of WWW columns she interrupted because she needed some =
attention, I=20
only wish she could interrupt many more. My wife died over six years =
ago, and=20
this was a fresh visit to that loss.
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Despite the 28% gain in the Nikkei in just five =
weeks, the=20
fundamentals of Japanese economy are little improved. The latest report =
on=20
private sector machinery orders showed a drop of 15.6% in January, far =
worst=20
than expected, and indicates weak capital spending in the near future.=20
Meanwhile, GDP dropped 1.2% in the last quarter of 2001, and nat'l debt =
was=20
already 140% of GDP, largest ratio of the top 7 industrialized nations. =
Both are=20
the worst since the end of WWII.</FONT>=20
<HR>
</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG>ANDERSEN</STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Scored another record, they were the auditors for =
HIH, an=20
Australian insurance company and that country's largest ever bankruptcy. =
More=20
lawsuits against Andersen are expected. Meanwhile the company talked to =
Deloitte=20
about a possible merger, or purchase of assets after they find a way to =
protect=20
the buyer from Enron and other liabilities (one possibility - =
bankruptcy!!). And=20
on Monday, FedEx made it official, dumped Andersen for =
Deloitte.</FONT> =20
<FONT size=3D2>Many more are following, and looks to me like the firm is =
ended.=20
Deloitte ended talks on a possible buyout as did one other of the top =
"5", and=20
the other two are not even interested in initiating talks. Seems the =
potential=20
liability is just too great. So goes one of the formerly great names in =
the=20
accounting industry.</FONT> <FONT size=3D2>Besides, why pay for clients =
when they=20
will come to you for free?</FONT>
<HR>
</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Forecasts for Q1 GDP are rising fast, already up a =
full=20
percent to 2.6%. Noted for unexpected strength are consumer spending and =
business investment. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Inventories fell less than expected in January (0.2% =
vs 0.4%=20
expected), however overall sales increased 1.2%. This was the biggest =
sales=20
increase since June 2000. Meanwhile retail sales increased only 0.3% =
instead of=20
the expected 0.9%. Much of the difference came from auto sales. Without =
autos,=20
expected was 0.5% and actual was 0.2%.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>FOMC meets on Tuesday, and is widely expected to =
eliminate the=20
easing bias at a minimum. Expectations now are nearly 100% that they =
will raise=20
rates at the May meeting. And using the futures as a forecasting =
barometer=20
suggests that rates, presently at 1.75%, will be up to 3% by the end of =
the=20
year. To me, so far the economic recovery appears to be stronger than =
Mr. G was=20
expecting, and may open a window of opportunity for his often speculated =
retirement. That would likely be disruptive to the markets for the short =
term,=20
at least.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Univ. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment gauge soared =
for=20
February to 95 from 90.7. Expectations were for a gain to 93. Both the =
Current=20
Conditions and the Expectations Indexes were also up.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>And Industrial Production rose 0.4% for February, =
double the=20
expectations. Capacity Utilization was up slightly.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>The PPI rose an expected 0.2%, while the core rate =
was=20
unchanged against expectations of a 0.1% rise.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>
<HR>
</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>As always, a Bx simply means a flat line "B"ase over =
"x"=20
weeks, IMO. Should I see other familiar patterns, such as a c&h, =
double=20
bottom, LLUR, etc., then I will say so.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>The population of stocks I will be reviewing =
continues to grow=20
slowly, but I continue to see deterioration in small/micro cap growth =
stocks in=20
favor of small cap value stocks and mid to large cap stocks. Techs =
continue to=20
fail to show strong and consistent leadership. Homebuilders looks to be =
rolling=20
over finally.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>ACS - nice short c&h</DIV>
<DIV>AGY - B6</DIV>
<DIV>ATPX - high handle</DIV>
<DIV>BIO - b/o Friday from short base, volume not convincing</DIV>
<DIV>BLUD - holding Wednesday's b/o</DIV>
<DIV>CPS - B4</DIV>
<DIV>DF - handle on a weak double bottom, volume not convincing</DIV>
<DIV>DLX - just continuing on its LLUR way</DIV>
<DIV>ESI - decent 8 month c&h</DIV>
<DIV>HCBK - B5</DIV>
<DIV>LUX - b/o Friday on volume, short base</DIV>
<DIV>LYTX - b/o Friday on volume, 3 week base</DIV>
<DIV>MCL - LLUR</DIV>
<DIV>NFI - saucer</DIV>
<DIV>ODP - B4+</DIV>
<DIV>OII - B3</DIV>
<DIV>PBIX - B7</DIV>
<DIV>PEGA - base on base, in my VR Fund, low price, volume</DIV>
<DIV>PETM - LLUR</DIV>
<DIV>PNG - B3</DIV>
<DIV>POSS - trying to b/o from short handle on the cup, in my VR =
Fund</DIV>
<DIV>PPD - on an unpredictable move again</DIV>
<DIV>PQE - 9 week consolidation</DIV>
<DIV>RAH - LLUR, but with strong earnings growth</DIV>
<DIV>RMCF - double bottom on weak volume</DIV>
<DIV>SRCL - B3</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Happy hunting,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 =
src=3D"cid:002901c1ccf8$ec48e340$9300a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20
align=3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
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