Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - dedicated to Cassie

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - dedicated to Cassie
Date: Sat, 16 Mar 2002 22:18:28 -0500
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Top of Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - dedicated to Cassie "Bill Triffet"
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Hi Bill,

I still have two cats, one we rescued from the canal behind our house (a
male kitten) and the other a 2 year old female accepted from our son so he
could join the military (and move out of our house!! - what a deal). Even
with adult kids, the cats are my "children".

The scary part of Japan's economy, at least to me, is that they are so pain
adverse that they are willing to drag along in recession until the recovery
in the US economy slowly digs them out of the hole they made. That means
that the second largest economy in the world is a burden on the US recovery,
instead of contributing to it.

Your comments and personal insight on Industrial Production are most
interesting. I agree, your observations are difficult to equate to the
numbers being reported.

Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Bill Triffet" <btriffet@earthlink.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 16, 2002 8:31 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - dedicated to Cassie


Tom,

Very sorry about your cat. I'm a cat person myself. I have two (brother &
sister) that are now age 15. My wife and I couldn't have kids so they are
very much our children (spoiled rotten).

Japan
How long can there economy last in this state. I thought is was bad back in
98 but now it's worse. As far as machine orders I can vouch for that. Being
an NC programmer in an mid-size aerospace shop I can tell you manufacturing
is still WAY down (both commercial & defense). My shop laid off 30% of the
workers last year. Many shops have folded up that were buyers of Japanese
machine tools.

On a similar note: Industrial production - where do they get those
numbers??? Manufacturing is now VERY regional. While the mid-west and east
regions may be picking up slightly, the west coast is in serious trouble.
Much of the work here in California is/was aerospace based with a capital B
for Boeing. I'd say 10% of the machine shops will close this year. These
were Boeing certified, ISO9000 rated shops. - the ones needed for Joint
Strike Fighter type work. In my 25 years in this business, this is the worst
I've seen. To make things worse, companys such as Lockheed do very little of
the in-house machining anymore and depend on us "little guys" to make the
parts. I expect to hear about severe delays in production of the new fighter
next year.

In other areas of manufacturing: Hughes Space and Com (satillites) just
started laying off 10% of it's workforce. Guess manufacturing folks in Ca.
will start moving away for work or join the great service industries here
that everyone is so proud of (you want fries with that?).

Andersen:
You reap what you sow. You can consult and you can audit - but both for the
same company???

Also on a real canslim note: is it just my perception or are most the
featured breakouts either in this group or featured in IBD pulling back or
dropping below their bases right after the breakout? I kept 6 weeks of IBD
Weekend Review (not to be confused with the far more famous Weeview). I'll
try and do a quick scan of the breakouts to see if I can come up with some
numbers. Perhaps there is a new IBD method: buy on the breakouts then
immediately sell the next day for a quick 3%-5%. (g)

Seriously, I think many folks are very gun shy and take immediate profits
these days.

- -Bill Triffet

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 16, 2002 6:43 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - dedicated to Cassie


I lost my oldest cat early this morning, Cassandra was my wife's pick over
17 years ago, but she could not beat cancer despite two recent operations.
She was not an easy cat to love, but she leaves a hole in my soul
nonetheless. She was a good girl right to the end, and did not force me to
put her down, she picked her time and place. I cannot count the number of
WWW columns she interrupted because she needed some attention, I only wish
she could interrupt many more. My wife died over six years ago, and this was
a fresh visit to that loss.
- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
- ----

JAPAN
Despite the 28% gain in the Nikkei in just five weeks, the fundamentals of
Japanese economy are little improved. The latest report on private sector
machinery orders showed a drop of 15.6% in January, far worst than expected,
and indicates weak capital spending in the near future. Meanwhile, GDP
dropped 1.2% in the last quarter of 2001, and nat'l debt was already 140% of
GDP, largest ratio of the top 7 industrialized nations. Both are the worst
since the end of WWII.
- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
- ----

ANDERSEN
Scored another record, they were the auditors for HIH, an Australian
insurance company and that country's largest ever bankruptcy. More lawsuits
against Andersen are expected. Meanwhile the company talked to Deloitte
about a possible merger, or purchase of assets after they find a way to
protect the buyer from Enron and other liabilities (one possibility -
bankruptcy!!). And on Monday, FedEx made it official, dumped Andersen for
Deloitte.  Many more are following, and looks to me like the firm is ended.
Deloitte ended talks on a possible buyout as did one other of the top "5",
and the other two are not even interested in initiating talks. Seems the
potential liability is just too great. So goes one of the formerly great
names in the accounting industry. Besides, why pay for clients when they
will come to you for free?
- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
- ----

ECONOMICS
Forecasts for Q1 GDP are rising fast, already up a full percent to 2.6%.
Noted for unexpected strength are consumer spending and business investment.

Inventories fell less than expected in January (0.2% vs 0.4% expected),
however overall sales increased 1.2%. This was the biggest sales increase
since June 2000. Meanwhile retail sales increased only 0.3% instead of the
expected 0.9%. Much of the difference came from auto sales. Without autos,
expected was 0.5% and actual was 0.2%.

FOMC meets on Tuesday, and is widely expected to eliminate the easing bias
at a minimum. Expectations now are nearly 100% that they will raise rates at
the May meeting. And using the futures as a forecasting barometer suggests
that rates, presently at 1.75%, will be up to 3% by the end of the year. To
me, so far the economic recovery appears to be stronger than Mr. G was
expecting, and may open a window of opportunity for his often speculated
retirement. That would likely be disruptive to the markets for the short
term, at least.

Univ. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment gauge soared for February to 95 from
90.7. Expectations were for a gain to 93. Both the Current Conditions and
the Expectations Indexes were also up.

And Industrial Production rose 0.4% for February, double the expectations.
Capacity Utilization was up slightly.

The PPI rose an expected 0.2%, while the core rate was unchanged against
expectations of a 0.1% rise.

- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
- ----

WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
As always, a Bx simply means a flat line "B"ase over "x" weeks, IMO. Should
I see other familiar patterns, such as a c&h, double bottom, LLUR, etc.,
then I will say so.

The population of stocks I will be reviewing continues to grow slowly, but I
continue to see deterioration in small/micro cap growth stocks in favor of
small cap value stocks and mid to large cap stocks. Techs continue to fail
to show strong and consistent leadership. Homebuilders looks to be rolling
over finally.

ACS - nice short c&h
AGY - B6
ATPX - high handle
BIO - b/o Friday from short base, volume not convincing
BLUD - holding Wednesday's b/o
CPS - B4
DF - handle on a weak double bottom, volume not convincing
DLX - just continuing on its LLUR way
ESI - decent 8 month c&h
HCBK - B5
LUX - b/o Friday on volume, short base
LYTX - b/o Friday on volume, 3 week base
MCL - LLUR
NFI - saucer
ODP - B4+
OII - B3
PBIX - B7
PEGA - base on base, in my VR Fund, low price, volume
PETM - LLUR
PNG - B3
POSS - trying to b/o from short handle on the cup, in my VR Fund
PPD - on an unpredictable move again
PQE - 9 week consolidation
RAH - LLUR, but with strong earnings growth
RMCF - double bottom on weak volume
SRCL - B3

Happy hunting,

Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley



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