Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - dedicated to Cassie
Date: Sun, 17 Mar 2002 23:47:23 -0500
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I agree, Fred, that Mr. G and CEOs see things from a different perspective. I am inclined to believe that Mr. G sees it from a larger perspective, while the CEOs are reactive to what is happening at their company, with some bias from what may be happening within their industry. CEOs of publicly traded companies are also reactive to shareholders, at least those with large stakes such as pension funds, mutual funds, etc. And that interest group is more interested in improving earnings than in growing sales / taking market share. Most CEOs demonstrated in 2000 / 2001 that they are not very good economists, in that they maintained production and bloated their inventory well past the point when the economy began to slow. It has taken us the past 18 months to trim down that inventory. That experience likely also now makes them reluctant to hire more people and increase current production until they see actual purchase orders. But several recent economic reports suggest to me that despite all the warnings of a sluggish recovery, their may be an initial and unexpected burst of activity. After that, things may slow down and even appear to be a dip back into recession. One of the advantages of CANSLIM is that we are focused on growth relative to other stocks. The value shoppers may find it a difficult year as they try to figure out which stocks are truly oversold, and which ones won't be growing any time soon and are at low prices for good reason (and may even go lower). Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Fred Richards" <adrich@gte.net> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Sent: Sunday, March 17, 2002 10:45 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - dedicated to Cassie Let me try to slip in. One must start from viewing the perspective and agenda of the sources. Greenspan is political and monetary focused. Wall Street economists and CNBC cheerleaders do not have a significant financial stake other than getting a pay check and hence, are probably sales oriented. The CEO's must view the future from the aspect of their own wallets and being able to survive in their jobs if they make bad decisions. For my money, the CEO's are probably closer to knowing the truth than any of the others because their necks are on the chopping block. Hence, don't get your hopes up too high for a recovery. In fact, the reluctance to raise money is not positive. Several CEO's and CFO's I have talked too lately are more interested in cutting their debt/equity ratios rather than increasing them. And they are doing this by reducing staff, renegotiating purchase and real-estate costs and attempting to increase efficiency. Many are also eliminating marginal products and divisions. "Lean and mean" is the theme. Doesn't bode well for a capital spending binge. Be very interesting to see the 1st Q earnings reports in a few weeks. Fred Richards - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Charles Bentley Sent: Saturday, March 16, 2002 4:35 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Cc: gandrew@pacbell.net; Laura Shuford Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - dedicated to Cassie Tom, Since you are now providing an Economic picture in your weekly analysis, perhaps you can answer a question I have. In listening to the remarks of Bill Gates, Mr. Buffet and Mr Imelt from GE among others, they do not see a robust rebound coming and are not spending money gearing up for it. In addition, corporate insider activity (called smart money) from what I've been able to find out, is selling. They're selling personal stock and selling stock for the company to raise money. In addition, in an unprecidented time of low interest rates, they arn't raising money. This doesn't sound like they're preparing for an economic rebound. On the other hand the financial markets are predicting a robust rebound (as you stated in your recent newsletter). Now here's my confusion. The Analysists are looking at the markets as self validating. Meaning that the higher that the market goes, the more likely it is that consumer spending will pickup and force the corporations to borrow and expand. The executives from many companies are telling us that they don't see positive signs for doing this. Mr Greenspans response about a question concerning this last week at the Senate Banking Committee was that perhaps Mr. Gates and Mr. Imelt are too close to be able to see the broad picture. EXCUSE ME? Am I just dense here? To me that doesn't make any sense at all. I doubt that Mr Gates and Mr Imelt got where they are without being able to see the broad picture. Please help me...... ===================================== Third Coast Telecom (713) 827-8133 5644 Westheimer, #222 Houston, TX 77056 - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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