Re: [CANSLIM] "M"

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"
Date: Mon, 25 Mar 2002 23:10:21 -0500
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Hi Ernie, and welcome back to the active posters list, hope you stay there.

Personally, I hope you are overly pessimistic. But from my days as an active
broker, as well as general observation, I would have to agree with you at
least as to short term direction if not with the absolute numbers.

I know that the Santa Claus rally usually ran out of steam by the end of
February, so I usually tried to exit many positions by then. That March has
not been so terrible is, I think, attributable to Feb not being so red hot.
Come to think of it, Jan was not so hot either.

Also, prying money out of investors during Feb-Apr 15 was always difficult,
as they assessed their tax obligations.

Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Monday, March 25, 2002 11:02 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M"


Hi group,

I have been silent on this list for quite awhile now. The reason being I
have been very busy attacking the toughest part of CANSLIM that being "M". I
am now ready to hopefully contribute.

I personally will not be buying any stock until some time after mid April.
My analysis has me convinced that we are in the midst of a nasty downturn. I
will stick my neck out and make a bold forecast.

I don't expect to see much improvement in the S&P until after it makes a
significant bottom in mid April. Specifically I expect the S&P to bottom on
4-17-02 with a reversal day closing above 1085 with a low in the 1070 to
1075 range.

E

 -----Original Message-----
From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]
Sent: Monday, March 25, 2002 9:20 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"

Hi Patrick,

I think the biggest obstacle for Naz to overcome is its disproportionately
high number of tech stocks, most of which are still way under their 12 or 24
month highs. And I have little doubt that there are gizillions of shares
still held at huge losses, with some naive / optimistic hope of recovery
back to cost basis, at least. If so, that constitutes a lot of overhead
resistance, which only grows greater as time passes.

Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Patrick Wahl" <pjwahl@attbi.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Monday, March 25, 2002 10:08 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"


I kept my vix post pretty thin since no one else seemed to be commenting
much on
the market, but a few other things I've noticed - 4 indices I looked at
peaked at
about Jan. 5 - the Russell, Dow, S&P and Nasdaq.  The first 2 have exceeded
the
Jan 8 highs in the last two weeks, S&P is just hovering below those January
highs,
but the NASDAQ is still considerably below them.  I also looked at a
cumulative
advance deline line for the NYSE and the NASDAQ, and I notice the NYSE line
is
up strongly, Nasdaq line is lagging badly.

As to what it all means, that is more of a guess, but in the last big run up
in the
1990's the NASDAQ was the leader.  I don't know if leadership has changed
and the
other indices will pull the NASDAQ up, or if the NASDAQ will drag the others
down.
Anyway, NASDAQ doesn't look too healthy to me, would like to see all the
indices
looking equally strong, or even the NASDAQ leading, not the NYSE.


Yes Bill K., M is Market, last letter of CANSLIM.

On 25 Mar 2002 at 7:54, Tom Worley wrote:

> Haven't had much talk on "M" lately, aside from the one post on VIX (which
I
> agree with, by the way, it's staying too low for comfort).
>
> Took a fast look around this morning, and noticed the severe overbought
> conditions on both NYSE and NASDAQ have corrected to neutral. And 10 day
> moving average of up/down volume is now slightly negative on NYSE and
> substantially more on Naz.
>
> 10 day moving average of new highs remains moderately positive on both of
> these exchanges.
>
> The S&P500 chart looks surprisingly healthy (at least to me). And the
> Russell 2000 has done better than I perceived from my portfolios. The rest
> looked decent if they can hold in this area, or better still start
trending
> up.
>
> Tom Worley
> stkguru@bellsouth.net
> AIM: TexWorley
>
>
>
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