Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: SYPR and microcaps
Date: Tue, 26 Mar 2002 07:28:50 -0500
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Hi Robert,
I don't want to even think about how much money I have lost over the =
years from "arguing with the markets", thinking that just because I know =
a company well, I know more than the investment community. While =
knowledge can help, it is alone not sufficient. These days I at least =
try to be disciplined enough to step aside when a stock I like =
nonetheless falls out of favor. Preservation of capital is the most =
important goal, there are far too many investment opportunities even for =
a long term investor like myself.
An excellent recent example is RMCI, a temp help / staffing / transition =
company. I managed to nip out of it in my IRA just in time with a 10% or =
so profit, but was not as quick with my VR Fund, after signs of economic =
recovery suddenly convinced the market that it would not do so well in =
the future. I preserved my real world profit, but did not agree with the =
market's assessment, so bought more in my VR Fund last Thu under $19. =
Yesterday, they completed a major acquisition and disclosed the effects =
on their future revenues and earnings. The 21% price gain for the day =
clearly shows the complete reversal of sentiment as the market realized =
this company will continue to grow rapidly.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Robert Hodes=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, March 25, 2002 8:49 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: SYPR and microcaps
Tom: Thank you for your thoughtful response.
As a general comment, when I first started to invest, I could not make =
sense out of technical analysis and paid no attention to the tools =
developed by chartists. As I started to read IBD, I realized that chart =
patterns reflect that buying and selling behavior of groups of =
investors, and that one could make useful inferences about the =
motivations and future behaviors of investors from these patterns. As a =
behavioral psychologist, that appeals to me. So I know look at chart =
patterns as behavioral data and not just numbers and it's starting to =
fall into place. Your comments are very helpful.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, March 25, 2002 4:21 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: SYPR and microcaps
Robert,
A lot depends on what they do with the money from the offering. Volume =
on Thu and Fri appears like the new shares have already changed hands. =
Between the time of the announcement and completion of the offering, the =
price held up well, but on very light volume. So there is some support =
in the $14-15 range.
They already had a 44% earnings growth forecast. The new money may =
increase this. Keep in mind that future earnings reports will be on a =
"weighed average number of shares", so the effects of the add'l 3.6 =
million shares, plus the oversubscription shares if issued, will only =
take full affect over the next year. And there was only 1.6 million =
shares in the float before, with heavy management ownership.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Robert Hodes=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, March 24, 2002 8:47 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: SYPR and microcaps
Tom or others: =20
I've been looking at SYPR. I noted that the company announced =
commencement of a public offering of 3.6M shares priced at $14.50 on =
Thurs. The original SEC registration statement was announced on 2-8-02. =
There are 9.90M shares outstanding so that seems like a significant =
dilution when figuring per share earnings and revenue. What's your =
experience with stock prices after this type of public offering. Does =
this provide support for the stock price at $14.5, do you see a lot of =
quick profit taking, does this prolong a base or cause a correction due =
to earnings dilution, are they are guidelines here. This type of =
situation occurs over and over again with these microcaps and I'm not =
sure how to react. Thanks.
Bob Hodes
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, March 23, 2002 4:34 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
FOMC
The Feds met on Tuesday, and as expected shifted the bias from =
recession fighting to neutral. Nonetheless, there was still the 10% that =
hadn't got the word, or refused to believe the signs, and sold as if =
this news was a surprise. I have already seen considerable talk of the =
Feds beginning to raise rates as early as the May meeting, but so far =
see little evidence to support this. While rate hikes may happen before =
the end of 2002, I see no reason to believe they will start until after =
the June meeting, at the earliest. Now, if they shifted all the way to =
inflation fighting, THAT would have been a surprise. We're still =
recovering from a recession, the Feds won't upset the apple cart, at =
least not yet.=20
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- ---
HWP / CPQ
Gee, this is almost like a Presidential election in Florida. HP =
claims victory, will own Compaq, with a 0.5% victory margin. Walter =
Hewlett, leading the HP family's opposition to the merger, says a =
recount will turn victory into defeat for HP's management. Love those =
hanging chaffs, let's turn a boring merger vote into front page news, =
and keep it there for a few days, or even a few weeks. Of course, no one =
has yet figured out whether this "merger of giants" will actually allow =
them to: a) compete against IBM; b) achieve any synergy of customer =
base; c) achieve any production efficiency or cost savings; d) build a =
better product that can compete better in either the printer or PC box =
market.
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- ---
TRADE DEFICIT
Widened again, to $28.5 billion, up 15% from December. Year 2001 was =
the first annual decline in six years, but rising price of oil will =
likely weaken Q1 GDP.=20
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- ---
ECONOMICS
New housing starts jumped 2.8% in February, biggest gain in over =
three years and well above expectations. Single family home construction =
jumped 7.4%, biggest gain in over 23 years. Building permits also rose =
1.8% and over expectations.=20
CPI - Index rose 0.2% overall as expected, but the core rose 0.3%, =
slightly over expectations.
NEW UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS - Fell to 371K from a revised 383K, expected =
was 375K. This continues to support the view that the economy is =
stronger, and recovering faster, that the Feds perceive, and could lead =
to rate hikes sooner rather than later.
LEADING INDICATORS - Unchanged, expected was a rise of 0.1
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- ---
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
Population of stocks under review this weekend somewhat reduced. As =
always, a "Bx" means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks duration, IMO. I =
will mention other specific formations, such as c&h, double bottom and =
LLUR.
AAON - stealth (low vol) b/o from B3
ACDO - 7 week consolidation base, huge earnings growth and 5 year =
rate
ACS - decent c&h for a former LLUR
AVD - LLUR, may be breaking its pattern upward
DCOM - LLUR
DLX - LLUR
FRED - volatile LLUR
FRS - B4
NWRE - B2, low priced micro cap
ODP - B5+
PENN - B4
PETM - LLUR
PSTI - B3, in my VR Fund
SYPR - 10 week consolidation, in my VR Fund
TASR - volatile 10 week consolidation base, in my VR Fund
Happy Hunting,
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Hi Robert,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I don't want to even think about how much money =
I have=20
lost over the years from "arguing with the markets", thinking that just =
because=20
I know a company well, I know more than the investment community. =
While=20
knowledge can help, it is alone not sufficient. These days I at least =
try to be=20
disciplined enough to step aside when a stock I like nonetheless falls =
out of=20
favor. Preservation of capital is the most important goal, there are far =
too=20
many investment opportunities even for a long term investor like=20
myself.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>An excellent recent example is RMCI, a temp help =
/=20
staffing / transition company. I managed to nip out of it in my IRA just =
in time=20
with a 10% or so profit, but was not as quick with my VR Fund, after =
signs of=20
economic recovery suddenly convinced the market that it would not do so =
well in=20
the future. I preserved my real world profit, but did not agree with the =
market's assessment, so bought more in my VR Fund last Thu under $19. =
Yesterday,=20
they completed a major acquisition and disclosed the effects on their =
future=20
revenues and earnings. The 21% price gain for the day clearly shows the =
complete=20
reversal of sentiment as the market realized this company will continue =
to grow=20
rapidly.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Drchodes@charter.net href=3D"mailto:rchodes@charter.net">Robert =
Hodes</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Monday, March 25, 2002 8:49 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Re: SYPR and microcaps</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Tom: Thank you for your =
thoughtful=20
response.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>As a general comment, when I first =
started to=20
invest, I could not make sense out of technical analysis and paid no =
attention=20
to the tools developed by chartists. As I started to read IBD, I =
realized that=20
chart patterns reflect that buying and selling behavior of groups =
of=20
investors, and that one could make useful inferences about the =
motivations and=20
future behaviors of investors from these patterns. As a behavioral =
psychologist, that appeals to me. So I know look at chart patterns as =
behavioral=20
data and not just numbers and it's starting to fall into place. =
Your=20
comments are very helpful.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@bellsouth.net =
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, March 25, 2002 =
4:21=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Re: SYPR =
and=20
microcaps</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Robert,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>A lot depends on what they do with the money =
from the=20
offering. Volume on Thu and Fri appears like the new shares have =
already=20
changed hands. Between the time of the announcement and completion of =
the=20
offering, the price held up well, but on very light volume. So there =
is some=20
support in the $14-15 range.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>They already had a 44% earnings growth =
forecast. The new=20
money may increase this. Keep in mind that future earnings reports =
will be on=20
a "weighed average number of shares", so the effects of the add'l 3.6 =
million=20
shares, plus the oversubscription shares if issued, will only take =
full affect=20
over the next year. And there was only 1.6 million shares in the float =
before,=20
with heavy management ownership.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Drchodes@charter.net href=3D"mailto:rchodes@charter.net">Robert =
Hodes</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, March 24, 2002 8:47 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Re: SYPR and microcaps</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Tom or others: </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I've been looking at SYPR. I =
noted that the=20
company announced commencement of a public offering of 3.6M =
shares priced=20
at $14.50 on Thurs. The original SEC registration statement was=20
announced on 2-8-02. There are 9.90M shares outstanding so that =
seems=20
like a significant dilution when figuring per share earnings and=20
revenue. What's your experience with stock prices after this =
type of=20
public offering. Does this provide support for the =
stock price=20
at $14.5, do you see a lot of quick profit taking, does this =
prolong=20
a base or cause a correction due to earnings dilution, are =
they=20
are guidelines here. This type of situation occurs over and =
over=20
again with these microcaps and I'm not sure how to react. =20
Thanks.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Bob Hodes</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@bellsouth.net =
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, March 23, =
2002 4:34=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Worley's =
Weekend=20
Weeview</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>FOMC</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The Feds met on Tuesday, and as expected =
shifted the=20
bias from recession fighting to neutral. Nonetheless, there was =
still the=20
10% that hadn't got the word, or refused to believe the signs, and =
sold as=20
if this news was a surprise. I have already seen considerable talk =
of the=20
Feds beginning to raise rates as early as the May meeting, but so =
far see=20
little evidence to support this. While rate hikes may happen before =
the end=20
of 2002, I see no reason to believe they will start until after the =
June=20
meeting, at the earliest. Now, if they shifted all the way to =
inflation=20
fighting, THAT would have been a surprise. We're still recovering =
from a=20
recession, the Feds won't upset the apple cart, at least not =
yet.</FONT>=20
<HR>
</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>HWP / CPQ</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Gee, this is almost like a Presidential =
election in=20
Florida. HP claims victory, will own Compaq, with a 0.5% victory =
margin.=20
Walter Hewlett, leading the HP family's opposition to the merger, =
says a=20
recount will turn victory into defeat for HP's management. Love =
those=20
hanging chaffs, let's turn a boring merger vote into front page =
news, and=20
keep it there for a few days, or even a few weeks. Of course, no one =
has yet=20
figured out whether this "merger of giants" will actually allow them =
to: a)=20
compete against IBM; b) achieve any synergy of customer base; c) =
achieve any=20
production efficiency or cost savings; d) build a better product =
that can=20
compete better in either the printer or PC box market.</DIV>
<DIV>
<HR>
</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG>TRADE DEFICIT</STRONG></DIV>
<DIV>Widened again, to $28.5 billion, up 15% from December. Year =
2001 was=20
the first annual decline in six years, but rising price of oil will =
likely=20
weaken Q1 GDP.=20
<HR>
</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New housing starts jumped 2.8% in February, =
biggest=20
gain in over three years and well above expectations. Single family =
home=20
construction jumped 7.4%, biggest gain in over 23 years. Building =
permits=20
also rose 1.8% and over expectations. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>CPI </STRONG>- </FONT><FONT =
face=3DArial>Index=20
rose 0.2% overall as expected, but the core rose 0.3%, slightly over =
expectations.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>NEW UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS -=20
</STRONG></FONT><FONT face=3DArial>Fell to 371K from a revised 383K, =
expected=20
was 375K. This continues to support the view that the economy is =
stronger,=20
and recovering faster, that the Feds perceive, and could lead to =
rate hikes=20
sooner rather than later.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>LEADING INDICATORS - =
</STRONG></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Unchanged, expected was a rise of 0.1</DIV>
<DIV>
<HR>
</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST=20
WANNABES</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Population of stocks under review this =
weekend=20
somewhat reduced. As always, a "Bx" means a flat line "B"ase of "x" =
weeks=20
duration, IMO. I will mention other specific formations, such as =
c&h,=20
double bottom and LLUR.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AAON - stealth (low vol) b/o from =
B3</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ACDO - 7 week consolidation base, huge =
earnings growth=20
and 5 year rate</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ACS - decent c&h for a former =
LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AVD - LLUR, may be breaking its pattern=20
upward</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DCOM - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DLX - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FRED - volatile LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FRS - B4</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>NWRE - B2, low priced micro cap</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ODP - B5+</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PENN - B4</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PETM - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PSTI - B3, in my VR Fund</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SYPR - 10 week consolidation, in my VR=20
Fund</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>TASR - volatile 10 week consolidation base, =
in my VR=20
Fund</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 =
src=3D"cid:004001c1d4c1$c8a4e170$9300a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20
align=3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT =
face=3DArial>AIM:=20
TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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