Re: [CANSLIM] BRLI

From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BRLI
Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2002 09:48:27 -0800
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Bill:

I will buy in the base, when I think I am 3 months early from the
'vundamental volume change' that is the hallmark of my personal CANSLIM
approach. However, the truth is, that I often end up selling for a small
loss as it continues to trickle down on low volume. I do much, much better
when I wait for the volume surge through the trigger. Even though they are
lower priced, I use the exact same volume/trigger-point rules as WON
proposes - they work exceptionally well.

I find 'news' related surges to be a consistently bad thing. They can
interfere with the dynamics of a good stock (see QGLY this week) - creating
bagholders that can kill a rally. I prefer my volume surges to come 'out of
the blue' as it were. Usually, it just means that the stock needed a few
weeks for institutional accumulation after good earnings news - and then
suddenly, without warning, volume kicks in and the stock runs.

Ian




- ----- Original Message -----
From: Bill Triffet <btriffet@earthlink.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 27, 2002 8:54 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BRLI


> Ian,
>
> Have you in the past bought while still in the base as a method to catch
the
> breakout? I know others here have been occasionally doing so (though NOT
> canslim). I think the windows of ALL trades can only get smaller now with
> each passing year. Related to this is the increasing amount of WON news
> traders I see on sites such as clearstation. Lately I've seen," mentioned
in
> IBD today, going for short term profit". These are by no means
institutional
> traders but it is an interesting phenomena.
>
> My plan lately has been to wait for stocks with a VERY quiet handle and
buy
> into a lengthy base.
> Problem of course is it's hard to find them as news has driven every
little
> spike on my list making quick breakouts with equally quick retreats.
>
> -Bill
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ian" <ianstm@shaw.ca>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, March 26, 2002 10:11 PM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BRLI
>
>
> > Bill:
> >
> > One of the most beneficial artifacts of buying microcaps is also what
> makes
> > them very difficult:
> >
> > 1. If you catch the trigger point precisely, and the stock 'behaves',
you
> > almost never have to worry about near-term sell rules, as the price will
> > explode past the pivot point, and never revisit it (see NBSC at $6 as a
> > recent example, but ALL of my big winners have the same characteristic -
> it
> > is what encourages me to pyramid to my positions).
> >
> > 2. It is often extremely dificult to catch trigger points precisely. You
> > really do need to be watching when it happens, and pull the trigger very
> > quickly and decisively. You often only have a 5-minute window (or less)
to
> > get within the 5% trigger point.
> >
> > The liquidity (or lack thereof) in these cases acts as a very strong
> barrier
> > to deep pullbacks You get to be comofrtably in the green from the onset,
> and
> > can happily hold through 10-15% swings that never revisit the trigger
> point.
> > The key, as always is volume. You need to be very aware of distribution.
> >
> > Cheers,
> >
> > Ian
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Bill Triffet <btriffet@earthlink.net>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Tuesday, March 26, 2002 5:00 PM
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BRLI
> >
> >
> > > Ian,
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > > Actually, if you just go through the letters in CANSLIM, there is
> > nothing
> > > in
> > > > them about price or volume :)
> > >
> > > That's why I included the recommendation about HTMMIS as it does cover
> > price
> > > and volume - a lot. I actualy should have mentioned the 24 Lessons
book.
> > The
> > > old
> > > WON book is really dated now.
> > >
> > > > Because the low price stocks tend to trade at much lower valuations,
> > they
> > > > are MUCH more resistant to getting dragged down with 'M", so I can
> > > > underweight it - but you have to be very careful about only buying
> > strong
> > > > sectors.
> > >
> > > That brings up an excellent point. In the current market say 2000 to
now
> > > (g), the larger caps have sucked ( at least the ones I picked). Tom
here
> > can
> > > attest to the strength of micros over the past couple years. I have
> > watched
> > > (and got taken out) on more than a few IBD perfect (so I perceive)
> > breakouts
> > > this year and the last.
> > >
> > > Which brings me to my point. If you go through HTMMIS you see WON
> doesn't
> > > put a lot of faith in cyclicals, banks, services, etc... The talk was
> > always
> > > "look for the high growth flyers, ready to explode..." (so I
exagerated
> it
> > a
> > > bit). This year we've been seeing retail, financials, services, even
> golk
> > > etc... being talked about in IBD and this group as candidates. I think
> > this
> > > addresses your comment below about the current crop. I also think IBD
> has
> > > adopted a bit of a shorter trading stratigy because in the book I
recall
> > the
> > > metion of cyclicals falling out of favor when the new bull starts up.
> > >
> > > >
> > > > IMHO, most current IBD CANSLIM stocks are grossly negligent in their
> > > > complete dismissal of the original 'S' criteria.  Microcaps can kick
> you
> > > in
> > > > the back of the head telling you that 'S' is about to propel them
> > upwards.
> > > > Look at the volume on NBSC from Feb 13 onwards. The increase from
its
> > > > week-earlier ADV is an order of magnitude. When the stock is cheap,
> > > hitting
> > > > new highs, growing with strong EPS and a sound outlook ... and that
> kind
> > > of
> > > > 'S' picture suddenly emerges, the stock has nowhere to go but up.
> > > >
> > >
> > > Bottom line is if true canslim is not working it's probubly the market
> to
> > > blame. If microcaps are working, I say right on but be aware of the
> > > differences. I for one am starting to look more into micros - but with
a
> > > very cautious eye.
> > >
> > > But who am I to say... I've been in cash for several weeks now. (g)
> > >
> > > -Bill
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > -
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> >
> >
> > -
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>
>
> -
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> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
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