Re: [CANSLIM] PPDI Prevailing Wisdom on Earnings Announcment

From: "Patrick Wahl" <pjwahl@attbi.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PPDI Prevailing Wisdom on Earnings Announcment
Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2002 15:03:32 -0700

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Darn, I should have quit while I was ahead....

Obivously I picked an extreme example, but I'll stick by it as an earnings related fall 
and not market top.  If it had fallen only more or less in step with the market, I'd say 
it was a market thing, but since it fell practically to zero and it started just at that 
earnings release (which looked pretty good by the way) I think that particular 
earnings report signaled something was wrong with the business.

On 27 Mar 2002 at 14:24, Katherine Malm wrote:

> Patrick...I was completely with you until you mentioned CMTN....could
> it be that slide was coincident with the market top? I'd have to look
> back at a chart, but I think it was well into a blow-off top at the
> time and probably had very little to do with an earnings announcement
> or anything else! 
> 


> Katherine
>   ----- Original Message ----- 
>   From: Patrick Wahl 
>   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
>   Sent: Wednesday, March 27, 2002 2:19 PM
>   Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PPDI Prevailing Wisdom on Earnings Announcment
> 
> 
>   Buying ahead of earnings was discussed sometime last year, I think.  It is not 
>   discussed anywhere that I know of by WON, but it does make sense that you don't 
>   make a new commitment to a stock only a few days before an earnings 
>   announcement.  Almost certainly you will have only a small gain if you are just into 
>   a stock and earnings can really thrash the smaller Canslim type stock, so I think you 
>   are taking on more risk when you buy too close to an earnings release.  As far as 
>   institutions soaking up a stock, fine, but if you are trying to keep losses manageable, 
>   you may be out on a short term hit before the stock can stabilize.   If you have held 
>   a stock for a while and have a gain, you an afford to sit through the earnings and 
>   hope it's a favorable surprise or at least status quo.
> 
>   I'm even a little suspicious of a stock that breaks out just ahead of the earnings 
>   release, seems to have a bit of the speculative flavor to it and be prone to failing.  
>   Anecdotally speaking, Copper Mountain hit its all time high about two days before 
>   an earnings release, and then it was all down hill from there, about 100 dollars 
>   down.  I remember because I was very tempted to jump in, but fortunately 
>   something held me back,  I think it was a little fear about buying ahead of the 
>   earnings release.
> 
> 
> 
> 
>   On 27 Mar 2002 at 13:39, Katherine Malm wrote:
> 
>   > Tim,
>   > 
>   > See what you mean. The Bear has certainly bred a
>   > short-term-smoke-em-while-you've-got-em mentality into the market.
>   > Still think that the majority of institutional monies are committed to
>   > longer term views, so ultimately a strong stock will overcome that
>   > short term profit taking as institutions soak up the pullback. 
>   > 
> 
>   > Katherine
>   >   ----- Original Message ----- 
>   >   From: Tim Fisher 
>   >   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
>   >   Sent: Wednesday, March 27, 2002 1:26 PM
>   >   Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PPDI Prevailing Wisdom on Earnings Announcment
>   > 
>   > 
>   >   Nope, you didn't. It's a part of MY CANSLIM approach, has been discussed B4 
>   >   on this list, I forget where it was first referenced, assumed it was 
>   >   HTMMIS, but was obviously mistaken. Maybe was from HGS. Anyway too many 
>   >   short termers buy 2-3 wks B4 and sell the second after the announcement.
>   > 
>   >   At 01:03 PM 3/27/2002 -0600, you wrote:
>   >   >Tim, I didn't see this mentioned in the 'buy rules', did I overlook it?
>   >   >
>   >   >Gene
>   >   >Not buying right before an earnings announcement is part of CANSLIM, however.
>   > 
>   >   Tim Fisher
>   >   Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
>   >   Owner, Fisher Fisheries, Ltd.
>   >   mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com
>   >   WWW http://OreRockOn.com
>   > 
>   > 
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> 
> 
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