Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI
Date: Sun, 31 Mar 2002 08:50:34 -0800
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Katherine:
Actually, it is not low price/microcap that I prefer at all. Rather, what I look for is a low historical valuation based on P/S or P/E. The last few years, that has left me with nothing but microcaps. In the summer of '96, I could (and did) buy SUNW and EMC for the same low historical valuations - even while their businesses were experiencing strong revenue and EPS growth (the 'experts' were predicting the demise of high-priced servers, right at the start of the the Internets explosive growth curve ... LOL).
In '91, INTC and CSCO (and AOL) were trading at similar low multiple valuations and would have been at the top of my list (if I had been doing this back then), although MSFT would likely have been too 'pricey' for me.
The truth is that I would prefer to buy $15+ stocks, as it makes accumulating and selling much, much easier.
Cheers,
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Sunday, March 31, 2002 6:04 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI
I agree with you all that this is textbook CANSLIM down to the leadership status, savvy business planning, high ROE, high Sales/EPS growth, low institutional ownership, share buyback, etc. (They also own Nautilus sleep systems....those mattresses that have air chambers instead of box springs and compete with Select Comfort)...Good point about buying TV ad time on the cheap, Robert....more business savvy. My concern was that the breakout coincided with an upgrade by US Piper Jaffray (didn't notice that high short interest until Ian pointed it out). That, combined with a lot of CANSLIM eyes on the stock makes me wary about the timing, not the validity of the stock itself. I'll bet there'll be plenty of "second chances" for entry near the pivot on this one. (Hopefully no high-volume-rock-pullbacks for your sakes Charley and Robert!)
Ian...a question for you--If you were to find a company like DFXI that fit all your requirements except the low price/microcap status you prefer....would you pass? Seems that when you look back on a long term chart of stocks like INTC, DELL, CSCO that were once $25 "pricey" stocks, those prices now look like tiny blips in comparison.
Happy Easter,
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: Chazmoore@aol.com
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Saturday, March 30, 2002 11:33 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI
Robert, Katherine, and Spencer:
Direct Focus, in my opinion, is basically a marketing company that has chosen to sell high quality leisure equipment. They have "branded" their products through heavy spot TV commercials, infomercials, Internet, response mailings and print media. Their products include Bowflex, Nautilus, Schwinn, and StairMaster. One strong trait is their ability to set the product price and hold it for an extended period of time. I sent off for their free video tape over a year ago and the Bowflex prices have not changed. They are growing through acquisition which is reducing their fixed costs, and they are a clear leader in their industry. Their IBD Industry Classification, Leisure-Products, has done quite well over the last several months.
Having said all that, the stock price could drop like a rock Monday, and if it does, I'm gone.
Charley
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Katherine:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Actually, it is not low price/microcap that I prefer at all.
Rather, what I look for is a low historical valuation based on P/S or P/E. The
last few years, that has left me with nothing but microcaps. In the summer of
'96, I could (and did) buy SUNW and EMC for the same low historical valuations -
even while their businesses were experiencing strong revenue and EPS growth (the
'experts' were predicting the demise of high-priced servers, right at the start
of the the Internets explosive growth curve ... LOL).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>In '91, INTC and CSCO (and AOL) were trading at similar low
multiple valuations and would have been at the top of my list (if I had been
doing this back then), although MSFT would likely have been too 'pricey' for
me.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The truth is that I would prefer to buy $15+ stocks, as
it makes accumulating and selling much, much easier.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Cheers,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net" title=kmalm@earthlink.net>Katherine
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, March 31, 2002 6:04
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>I agree with you all that this is textbook CANSLIM down to the leadership
status, savvy business planning, high ROE, high Sales/EPS growth, low
institutional ownership, share buyback, etc. (They also own Nautilus sleep
systems....those mattresses that have air chambers instead of box springs and
compete with Select Comfort)...Good point about buying TV ad time on the
cheap, Robert....more business savvy. My concern was that the breakout
coincided with an upgrade by US Piper Jaffray (didn't notice that high short
interest until Ian pointed it out). That, combined with a lot of CANSLIM eyes
on the stock makes me wary about the timing, not the validity of the stock
itself. I'll bet there'll be plenty of "second chances" for entry near the
pivot on this one. (Hopefully no high-volume-rock-pullbacks for your
sakes Charley and Robert!)</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Ian...a question for you--If you were to find a company like DFXI that
fit all your requirements except the low price/microcap status you
prefer....would you pass? Seems that when you look back on a long term
chart of stocks like INTC, DELL, CSCO that were once $25 "pricey" stocks,
those prices now look like tiny blips in comparison.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Happy Easter,</DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:Chazmoore@aol.com"
title=Chazmoore@aol.com>Chazmoore@aol.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, March 30, 2002 11:33
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><FONT face=arial,helvetica><FONT size=2>Robert, Katherine,
and Spencer: <BR>Direct Focus, in my opinion, is basically a marketing
company that has chosen to sell high quality leisure equipment. They have
"branded" their products through heavy spot TV commercials, infomercials,
Internet, response mailings and print media. Their products include Bowflex,
Nautilus, Schwinn, and StairMaster. One strong trait is their ability to set
the product price and hold it for an extended period of time. I sent off for
their free video tape over a year ago and the Bowflex prices have not
changed. They are growing through acquisition which is reducing their fixed
costs, and they are a clear leader in their industry. Their IBD Industry
Classification, Leisure-Products, has done quite well over the last several
months. <BR><BR>Having said all that, the stock price could drop like a rock
Monday, and if it does, I'm gone. <BR><BR>Charley
<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT></FONT></BODY></HTML>
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Next Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI "William King"
Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI Chazmoore@aol.com
Top of Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI "Katherine Malm"
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