Re: [CANSLIM] Canslim Evaluation Tool

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Canslim Evaluation Tool
Date: Wed, 3 Apr 2002 20:09:52 -0500

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OK, Tim, I waded thru the emails, and so far no one was willing to take up
the challenge, so I'll put on my negatively biased trifocals and see if I
can find fault with these:

KKD - as the longer terms members know, I love (read am addicted to) their
hot glazed donuts right off the rack. But could never be convinced that a
valuation multiple in the very high double digits was good investing. Still
am not with trailing PE of 88 and projected PE of 62. Short term trend
downward, breaking 50DMA today.

SYPR - gotta be careful here, as I have this small cap in my VR Fund where I
have a small profit, 12 month trend clearly up, sequential earnings growth
support the big annual earnings forecasts for this year and next, I don't
like the much slower growth in sales, debt is high (114%), ROE is low (9%),
management ownership very high (87%) which means they can do anything they
want without shareholder recourse, including selling big blocks of their
stock or taking the company private at virtually any price.

PER - single digit sales growth, weak earnings forecast (9 & 18% this year
and next)

MOVI - erratic chart, wouldn't get excited about it till it breaks 20.16 on
volume, I don't trust the forecasts on this one, mostly gut sense of what
"people" are doing in real world vs right after 9/11

GPI - 6% earnings growth this year (above company forecasts) and 17% next
year doesn't excite me

SAH - my economics flavor kicks in here, I don't see car sales doing well
this year, so can't believe the 21% earnings forecast even with the Don
Massey acquisitions, there's not that much juice after recent acquisitions
to bolster essentially flat earnings and sales that much, IMO

TUES - I'll try to be gentle, since you own this one, and I rarely spend
money so am a poor judge of consumer habits, management has 72% of the
float, and funds got 43% of what's left, that's hefty, earnings way
unpredictable, from several pennies for three qtrs to 63 cents, I wouldn't
know what to expect?, debt a shocking 549% and cash flow essentially flat
with earnings

FCN - had an easy year for comparisons in 2001, but 2002 will be far more
difficult, funds own 47% and management only owns 15%, cash flow below
earnings

Nothing motivated me, I am continuing to build my cash reserves until "M"
cleans up its act,

Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Tim Fisher" <Tim@orerockon.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, April 03, 2002 9:43 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Canslim Evaluation Tool

Forgive me if I totally disagree with you. There are still quite a few
practically perfect CANSLIM stocks out there to discuss, i.e. DFXI, without
bringing up these extremely sub-par candidates. I would not discourage
anyone from bringing them up for discussion, just that when their faults
are pointed out, that the advice offered be taken for what it is, namely
free.  Take it or ignore it,  but always remember, YGWYPF! IMNSHO. Want
something to do with your free time? Rip these apart:

KKD SYPR PER MOVI GPI SAH TUES FCN

Hint: The C&H isn't the only chart formation out there, nor is it the one
that necessarily is the best CANSLIM buy, particularly in this M...

At 09:16 AM 4/3/2002 -0500, you wrote:
>Easy, Tim:
>
>While the M's away the CANSLIMMERS must play!
>
>Duke
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tim Fisher
>Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2002 9:19 PM
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Canslim Evaluation Tool
>
>
>A stock 30% below its 52 wk high and with the 50dma under the 200 gets a
>
>10? Out of what, 100? Seriously, how is this a CANSLIM chart?
>

Tim Fisher
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
Owner, Fisher Fisheries, Ltd.
mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com
WWW http://OreRockOn.com

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