Re: [CANSLIM] Canslim Evaluation Tool

From: "William King" <wk11@adelphia.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Canslim Evaluation Tool
Date: Wed, 3 Apr 2002 21:38:34 -0500
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Tom,
I'm sure I speak for all the CANSLIM newbies/lurkers in thanking you and the
other contributors for the information and analysis you folks make available
to us. This response to Tim's challenge was excellent. I'm even beginning to
understand the thought process. The specifics expand on what 's provided in
WON's books although I guess it's all available in AskIBD.

Re you comment on FCN's cash flow being below earnings - is that 4th qtr
earnings of $0.23 x 4 = $0.92 compared to cash flow of  $0.80?

I took the trial subscription to DGO. I agree,it certainly makes due
diligence easier.

Thanks,
Bill King

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, April 03, 2002 8:09 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Canslim Evaluation Tool


> OK, Tim, I waded thru the emails, and so far no one was willing to take up
> the challenge, so I'll put on my negatively biased trifocals and see if I
> can find fault with these:
>
> KKD - as the longer terms members know, I love (read am addicted to) their
> hot glazed donuts right off the rack. But could never be convinced that a
> valuation multiple in the very high double digits was good investing.
Still
> am not with trailing PE of 88 and projected PE of 62. Short term trend
> downward, breaking 50DMA today.
>
> SYPR - gotta be careful here, as I have this small cap in my VR Fund where
I
> have a small profit, 12 month trend clearly up, sequential earnings growth
> support the big annual earnings forecasts for this year and next, I don't
> like the much slower growth in sales, debt is high (114%), ROE is low
(9%),
> management ownership very high (87%) which means they can do anything they
> want without shareholder recourse, including selling big blocks of their
> stock or taking the company private at virtually any price.
>
> PER - single digit sales growth, weak earnings forecast (9 & 18% this year
> and next)
>
> MOVI - erratic chart, wouldn't get excited about it till it breaks 20.16
on
> volume, I don't trust the forecasts on this one, mostly gut sense of what
> "people" are doing in real world vs right after 9/11
>
> GPI - 6% earnings growth this year (above company forecasts) and 17% next
> year doesn't excite me
>
> SAH - my economics flavor kicks in here, I don't see car sales doing well
> this year, so can't believe the 21% earnings forecast even with the Don
> Massey acquisitions, there's not that much juice after recent acquisitions
> to bolster essentially flat earnings and sales that much, IMO
>
> TUES - I'll try to be gentle, since you own this one, and I rarely spend
> money so am a poor judge of consumer habits, management has 72% of the
> float, and funds got 43% of what's left, that's hefty, earnings way
> unpredictable, from several pennies for three qtrs to 63 cents, I wouldn't
> know what to expect?, debt a shocking 549% and cash flow essentially flat
> with earnings
>
> FCN - had an easy year for comparisons in 2001, but 2002 will be far more
> difficult, funds own 47% and management only owns 15%, cash flow below
> earnings
>
> Nothing motivated me, I am continuing to build my cash reserves until "M"
> cleans up its act,
>
> Tom Worley
> stkguru@bellsouth.net
> AIM: TexWorley
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Tim Fisher" <Tim@orerockon.com>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, April 03, 2002 9:43 AM
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Canslim Evaluation Tool
>
>
> Forgive me if I totally disagree with you. There are still quite a few
> practically perfect CANSLIM stocks out there to discuss, i.e. DFXI,
without
> bringing up these extremely sub-par candidates. I would not discourage
> anyone from bringing them up for discussion, just that when their faults
> are pointed out, that the advice offered be taken for what it is, namely
> free.  Take it or ignore it,  but always remember, YGWYPF! IMNSHO. Want
> something to do with your free time? Rip these apart:
>
> KKD SYPR PER MOVI GPI SAH TUES FCN
>
> Hint: The C&H isn't the only chart formation out there, nor is it the one
> that necessarily is the best CANSLIM buy, particularly in this M...
>
> At 09:16 AM 4/3/2002 -0500, you wrote:
> >Easy, Tim:
> >
> >While the M's away the CANSLIMMERS must play!
> >
> >Duke
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tim Fisher
> >Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2002 9:19 PM
> >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> >Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Canslim Evaluation Tool
> >
> >
> >A stock 30% below its 52 wk high and with the 50dma under the 200 gets a
> >
> >10? Out of what, 100? Seriously, how is this a CANSLIM chart?
> >
>
> Tim Fisher
> Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
> Owner, Fisher Fisheries, Ltd.
> mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com
> WWW http://OreRockOn.com
>
>
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