Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI?
Date: Tue, 9 Apr 2002 07:39:10 -0500
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Hi John,
Homebuilding is a cyclical business by its nature. While the =
homebuilders have enjoyed a long boom in this cycle (more recently =
lengthened by the Fed's easing), its fairly clear that the cycle is =
nearing its end. That means that most of the homebuilders do not have =
what it takes to fuel future growth. When looking at any one stock in =
the group, its important to also check the remaining stocks and see what =
kinds of earnings and sales they've been printing in the last couple of =
quarters. Sure enough, most of the homebuilders have seen a marked =
deceleration in both. Under CANSLIM rules, 2 quarters of decelerating =
earnings after a long string of accelerating quarters is a sell signal. =
The next thing you'd want to look at is the technical health of all the =
players in the group. Pull up a chart of all the players and see what's =
there. Almost every one of them has formed a head and shoulders topping =
formation. While HOV and RYL appear to be bucking the trend, investing =
in them long at this point is the equivalent of playing with fire.
In sum, there are 3 things which qualify homebuilders as "stinky fish":
(1) 2 quarters of decelerating earnings
(2) cyclical business nearing the end of the cycle, higher interest =
rates pressuring sales and therefore taking away fuel for future growth
(3) group health is poor, most stocks are topping out.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: John Lessnau=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, April 09, 2002 6:45 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI?
What part of CANSLIM does HOV not meet? I am in a learning mode and =
want to
know where I went wrong.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Tim Fisher" <Tim@orerockon.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Monday, April 08, 2002 11:33 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI?
> Bingo. I have stayed away from home builders for months.
>
> At 09:34 PM 4/8/2002 -0500, you wrote:
> >Hi John,
> >
> >This is from Tuesday's IBD Big Picture (italics are mine):
> >
> >"Hovanian Enterprises
>
=
>(<javascript:popup=3Dwindow.open('http://www.investors.com/smartselect/S=
martS
=
elect.asp?x=3DJ3R4d5','SmartSelectPop','width=3D610,height=3D420,director=
ies=3Dno,st
=
atus=3Dno,location=3Dno,toolbar=3Dno,scrollbars=3Dno,resizable=3Dyes,menu=
bar=3Dno,copyhi
story=3Dno,alwaysRaised=3D0,dependent=3Dno');popup.focus();>HOV)
> >also surged to a new high. The stock jumped 2.84 to 29.70 in double
normal
> >volume. That cleared a five-week consolidation.
> >
> >It's instructive to monitor the health of the home builders. They =
can
give
> >you clues about the market's underlying strength. But don't blindly =
chase
> >these stocks. The leaders are far extended from their original =
breakouts.
> >The weaker stocks have revealed themselves with their subpar =
performance.
> >Neither makes a good investment candidate right now."
> >
> >Katherine
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: <mailto:jl@lessnau.com>John Lessnau
> >To: <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com
> >Sent: Monday, April 08, 2002 6:14 PM
> >Subject: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI?
> >
> >Hi all, I just joined the list after reading "How to Make Money in
Stocks".
> >Is there a database of past CANSLIM listserver messages that I can =
search
> >before I ask questions that have probably been asked 50 times in =
the last
> >month? (Like: Since one of the tennents of CANSLIM is not to =
invest in
> >stocks during a bear market what have you all been doing for the =
last two
> >years...)
> >
> >Well I through "M" out the window a few days ago and made my first
"CANSLI"
> >investment in HOV. So far, so good!
> >
> >John
> >
> >
> >
> >-
> >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email
> >"<mailto:majordomo@xmission.com>majordomo@xmission.com"
> >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
>
> Tim Fisher
> Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
> Owner, Fisher Fisheries, Ltd.
> mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com
> WWW http://OreRockOn.com
>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV>Hi John,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Homebuilding is a cyclical business by its nature. While the =
homebuilders=20
have enjoyed a long boom in this cycle (more recently lengthened by the =
Fed's=20
easing), its fairly clear that the cycle is nearing its end. That means =
that=20
most of the homebuilders do not have what it takes to fuel future =
growth. When=20
looking at any one stock in the group, its important to also check the =
remaining=20
stocks and see what kinds of earnings and sales they've been printing in =
the=20
last couple of quarters. Sure enough, most of the homebuilders have seen =
a=20
marked deceleration in both. Under CANSLIM rules, 2 quarters of =
decelerating=20
earnings after a long string of accelerating quarters is a sell signal. =
The next=20
thing you'd want to look at is the technical health of all the players =
in the=20
group. Pull up a chart of all the players and see what's there. Almost =
every one=20
of them has formed a head and shoulders topping formation. While HOV and =
RYL=20
appear to be bucking the trend, investing in them long at this point is =
the=20
equivalent of playing with fire.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>In sum, there are 3 things which qualify homebuilders as "stinky=20
fish":</DIV>
<DIV>(1) 2 quarters of decelerating earnings</DIV>
<DIV>(2) cyclical business nearing the end of the cycle, higher interest =
rates=20
pressuring sales and therefore taking away fuel for future growth</DIV>
<DIV>(3) group health is poor, most stocks are topping out.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Djl@lessnau.com href=3D"mailto:jl@lessnau.com">John =
Lessnau</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 09, 2002 =
6:45=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] -->=20
CANSLI?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>What part of CANSLIM does HOV not meet? I am in a =
learning mode and want to<BR>know where I went wrong.<BR><BR>----- =
Original=20
Message -----<BR>From: "Tim Fisher" <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:Tim@orerockon.com">Tim@orerockon.com</A>><BR>To: =
<<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
><BR>Sent:=20
Monday, April 08, 2002 11:33 PM<BR>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] -->=20
CANSLI?<BR><BR><BR>> Bingo. I have stayed away from home builders =
for=20
months.<BR>><BR>> At 09:34 PM 4/8/2002 -0500, you wrote:<BR>> =
>Hi=20
John,<BR>> ><BR>> >This is from Tuesday's IBD Big Picture =
(italics=20
are mine):<BR>> ><BR>> >"Hovanian=20
=
Enterprises<BR>><BR>>(<javascript:popup=3Dwindow.open('http://ww=
w.investors.com/smartselect/SmartS<BR>elect.asp?x=3DJ3R4d5','SmartSelectP=
op','width=3D610,height=3D420,directories=3Dno,st<BR>atus=3Dno,location=3D=
no,toolbar=3Dno,scrollbars=3Dno,resizable=3Dyes,menubar=3Dno,copyhi<BR>st=
ory=3Dno,alwaysRaised=3D0,dependent=3Dno');popup.focus();>HOV)<BR>>=
=20
>also surged to a new high. The stock jumped 2.84 to 29.70 in=20
double<BR>normal<BR>> >volume. That cleared a five-week=20
consolidation.<BR>> ><BR>> >It's instructive to monitor =
the health=20
of the home builders. They can<BR>give<BR>> >you clues about the =
market's underlying strength. But don't blindly chase<BR>> =
>these=20
stocks. The leaders are far extended from their original =
breakouts.<BR>>=20
>The weaker stocks have revealed themselves with their subpar=20
performance.<BR>> >Neither makes a good investment candidate =
right=20
now."<BR>> ><BR>> >Katherine<BR>> >----- Original =
Message=20
-----<BR>> >From: <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:jl@lessnau.com>John">mailto:jl@lessnau.com>John</A>=20
Lessnau<BR>> >To: <<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com">mai=
lto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A><BR>> =
>Sent: Monday, April 08, 2002 6:14 PM<BR>> >Subject: =
[CANSLIM] -->=20
CANSLI?<BR>> ><BR>> >Hi all, I just joined the list after =
reading=20
"How to Make Money in<BR>Stocks".<BR>> >Is there a database of =
past=20
CANSLIM listserver messages that I can search<BR>> >before I ask =
questions that have probably been asked 50 times in the last<BR>>=20
>month? (Like: Since one of the tennents of CANSLIM is =
not to=20
invest in<BR>> >stocks during a bear market what have you all =
been doing=20
for the last two<BR>> >years...)<BR>> ><BR>> >Well I =
through=20
"M" out the window a few days ago and made my =
first<BR>"CANSLI"<BR>>=20
>investment in HOV. So far, so good!<BR>> ><BR>>=20
>John<BR>> ><BR>> ><BR>> ><BR>> >-<BR>> =
>-To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email<BR>> >"<<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com>majordomo@xmission.com">mailto:majo=
rdomo@xmission.com>majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>>=20
>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> =
>-"unsubscribe=20
canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR>><BR>> Tim=20
Fisher<BR>> Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site<BR>> Owner, Fisher =
Fisheries, Ltd.<BR>> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com">mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com</A><BR>> =
WWW <A=20
=
href=3D"http://OreRockOn.com">http://OreRockOn.com</A><BR>><BR>><BR=
>>=20
-<BR>> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>>=
; -In=20
the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> -"unsubscribe=20
canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In=
the=20
email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe =
canslim". Do=20
not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Next Article (by Date): Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI? Dimitri Katsaros
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