Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI?
Date: Tue, 9 Apr 2002 07:57:46 -0500
Next Article (by Date): [CANSLIM] FW: IBD WebLink "Duke Miller"
Previous Article (by Date): Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI? Dimitri Katsaros
Top of Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI? John Lessnau
Next in Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI? Eric Jaenike
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]
This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0026_01C1DF9C.3CA19840 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable At the very least, I'd trail a stop on this one. Action during March = showed sell signals (distribution and tails down on high volume, large = volume up days with little progress). Yesterday the stock made a new = high on lower volume. I'd also be watching for signs that it's started = building steam for a climax run to the top. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Dimitri Katsaros=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, April 09, 2002 7:43 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI? Any opinions on NVR? It's been doing quite well for me and I'd hate to "give back" any gains unneccisarily. Thanks Dimitri --- Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote: > Hi John, >=20 > Homebuilding is a cyclical business by its nature. > While the homebuilders have enjoyed a long boom in > this cycle (more recently lengthened by the Fed's > easing), its fairly clear that the cycle is nearing > its end. That means that most of the homebuilders do > not have what it takes to fuel future growth. When > looking at any one stock in the group, its important > to also check the remaining stocks and see what > kinds of earnings and sales they've been printing in > the last couple of quarters. Sure enough, most of > the homebuilders have seen a marked deceleration in > both. Under CANSLIM rules, 2 quarters of > decelerating earnings after a long string of > accelerating quarters is a sell signal. The next > thing you'd want to look at is the technical health > of all the players in the group. Pull up a chart of > all the players and see what's there. Almost every > one of them has formed a head and shoulders topping > formation. While HOV and RYL appear to be bucking > the trend, investing in them long at this point is > the equivalent of playing with fire. >=20 > In sum, there are 3 things which qualify > homebuilders as "stinky fish": > (1) 2 quarters of decelerating earnings > (2) cyclical business nearing the end of the cycle, > higher interest rates pressuring sales and therefore > taking away fuel for future growth > (3) group health is poor, most stocks are topping > out. >=20 > Katherine =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D Quiquid latine dictum sit altum viditur __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Tax Center - online filing with TurboTax http://taxes.yahoo.com/ - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_0026_01C1DF9C.3CA19840 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV>At the very least, I'd trail a stop on this one. Action during = March showed=20 sell signals (distribution and tails down on high volume, large volume = up days=20 with little progress). Yesterday the stock made a new high on lower = volume. I'd=20 also be watching for signs that it's started building steam for a climax = run to=20 the top.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Katherine</DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Ddcka@yahoo.com href=3D"mailto:dcka@yahoo.com">Dimitri = Katsaros</A>=20 </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 09, 2002 = 7:43=20 AM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] -->=20 CANSLI?</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV>Any opinions on NVR? It's been doing quite well for = me<BR>and=20 I'd hate to "give back" any gains=20 unneccisarily.<BR><BR>Thanks<BR>Dimitri<BR><BR>--- Katherine Malm = <<A=20 href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">kmalm@earthlink.net</A>> = wrote:<BR>>=20 Hi John,<BR>> <BR>> Homebuilding is a cyclical business by its=20 nature.<BR>> While the homebuilders have enjoyed a long boom = in<BR>>=20 this cycle (more recently lengthened by the Fed's<BR>> easing), its = fairly=20 clear that the cycle is nearing<BR>> its end. That means that most = of the=20 homebuilders do<BR>> not have what it takes to fuel future growth.=20 When<BR>> looking at any one stock in the group, its = important<BR>> to=20 also check the remaining stocks and see what<BR>> kinds of earnings = and=20 sales they've been printing in<BR>> the last couple of quarters. = Sure=20 enough, most of<BR>> the homebuilders have seen a marked = deceleration=20 in<BR>> both. Under CANSLIM rules, 2 quarters of<BR>> = decelerating=20 earnings after a long string of<BR>> accelerating quarters is a = sell=20 signal. The next<BR>> thing you'd want to look at is the technical=20 health<BR>> of all the players in the group. Pull up a chart = of<BR>> all=20 the players and see what's there. Almost every<BR>> one of them has = formed=20 a head and shoulders topping<BR>> formation. While HOV and RYL = appear to be=20 bucking<BR>> the trend, investing in them long at this point = is<BR>> the=20 equivalent of playing with fire.<BR>> <BR>> In sum, there are 3 = things=20 which qualify<BR>> homebuilders as "stinky fish":<BR>> (1) 2 = quarters of=20 decelerating earnings<BR>> (2) cyclical business nearing the end of = the=20 cycle,<BR>> higher interest rates pressuring sales and = therefore<BR>>=20 taking away fuel for future growth<BR>> (3) group health is poor, = most=20 stocks are topping<BR>> out.<BR>> <BR>>=20 Katherine<BR><BR>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<BR>Quiquid latine dictum sit altum=20 = viditur<BR><BR>__________________________________________________<BR>Do = You=20 Yahoo!?<BR>Yahoo! Tax Center - online filing with TurboTax<BR><A=20 = href=3D"http://taxes.yahoo.com/">http://taxes.yahoo.com/</A><BR><BR>-<BR>= - -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0026_01C1DF9C.3CA19840-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Next Article (by Date): [CANSLIM] FW: IBD WebLink "Duke Miller"
Previous Article (by Date): Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI? Dimitri Katsaros
Top of Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI? John Lessnau
Next in Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI? Eric Jaenike
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]