Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI? NVR

From: "Novdust" <Novdust@hotmail.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI? NVR
Date: Tue, 9 Apr 2002 10:09:33 -0500

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I would have to say that you are not going to sell at the top.  If you
bought at one of the last breakouts, I would probably start taking some
profits.  Looks like it may be going on a climax running and will probably
anounce a split.  Just my opinion, but better to hold on to the profits
while you have them.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Dimitri Katsaros" <dcka@yahoo.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, April 09, 2002 7:43 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI?


> Any opinions on NVR? It's been doing quite well for me
> and I'd hate to "give back" any gains unneccisarily.
>
> Thanks
> Dimitri
>
> --- Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:
> > Hi John,
> >
> > Homebuilding is a cyclical business by its nature.
> > While the homebuilders have enjoyed a long boom in
> > this cycle (more recently lengthened by the Fed's
> > easing), its fairly clear that the cycle is nearing
> > its end. That means that most of the homebuilders do
> > not have what it takes to fuel future growth. When
> > looking at any one stock in the group, its important
> > to also check the remaining stocks and see what
> > kinds of earnings and sales they've been printing in
> > the last couple of quarters. Sure enough, most of
> > the homebuilders have seen a marked deceleration in
> > both. Under CANSLIM rules, 2 quarters of
> > decelerating earnings after a long string of
> > accelerating quarters is a sell signal. The next
> > thing you'd want to look at is the technical health
> > of all the players in the group. Pull up a chart of
> > all the players and see what's there. Almost every
> > one of them has formed a head and shoulders topping
> > formation. While HOV and RYL appear to be bucking
> > the trend, investing in them long at this point is
> > the equivalent of playing with fire.
> >
> > In sum, there are 3 things which qualify
> > homebuilders as "stinky fish":
> > (1) 2 quarters of decelerating earnings
> > (2) cyclical business nearing the end of the cycle,
> > higher interest rates pressuring sales and therefore
> > taking away fuel for future growth
> > (3) group health is poor, most stocks are topping
> > out.
> >
> > Katherine
>
> =====
> Quiquid latine dictum sit altum viditur
>
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