Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: John Lessnau <jl@lessnau.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI?
Date: Tue, 09 Apr 2002 18:48:52 -0400
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Ok I deferred to the experts here and sold my HOV......fortunately I am =
$400 richer for my mistake. This why I bought:
a.. Chart looks to be in a "Base on top of a Base". Pg. 169 ... =
Looks very similar to the example chart of Healthcare Compare Corp. =
O'Neil states: "When the bearish phase in the overall market eventually =
ends, the security will probably be one of the first to race into new =
high ground and launch a tremendous advance."
b.. C: Five quarters of accelerated earnings: q1/01 .305 q2 /01 =
.477 q3/01 .709 q4/01 .739 and q1/02 .596 (Analysts foresee and =
strong q2/02)
c.. A: HOV 5 year annually earnings per share show outstanding =
growth.
d.. N: "Buy stocks as they are making new highs"
e.. S: Small market cap and volume increases as stock has moved up.
f.. L: One of the top stocks in the strongest industry group.
g.. I: Strong but not too strong institutional ownership.
h.. M: N/A : bear market -- M does not apply for any current stocks. =
- ---> CANSLI
Perhaps someone could point out an example of a true current CANSLIM =
stock -- for educational purposes only ;-)
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, April 09, 2002 8:39 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI?
Hi John,
Homebuilding is a cyclical business by its nature. While the =
homebuilders have enjoyed a long boom in this cycle (more recently =
lengthened by the Fed's easing), its fairly clear that the cycle is =
nearing its end. That means that most of the homebuilders do not have =
what it takes to fuel future growth. When looking at any one stock in =
the group, its important to also check the remaining stocks and see what =
kinds of earnings and sales they've been printing in the last couple of =
quarters. Sure enough, most of the homebuilders have seen a marked =
deceleration in both. Under CANSLIM rules, 2 quarters of decelerating =
earnings after a long string of accelerating quarters is a sell signal. =
The next thing you'd want to look at is the technical health of all the =
players in the group. Pull up a chart of all the players and see what's =
there. Almost every one of them has formed a head and shoulders topping =
formation. While HOV and RYL appear to be bucking the trend, investing =
in them long at this point is the equivalent of playing with fire.
In sum, there are 3 things which qualify homebuilders as "stinky =
fish":
(1) 2 quarters of decelerating earnings
(2) cyclical business nearing the end of the cycle, higher interest =
rates pressuring sales and therefore taking away fuel for future growth
(3) group health is poor, most stocks are topping out.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: John Lessnau=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, April 09, 2002 6:45 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI?
What part of CANSLIM does HOV not meet? I am in a learning mode and =
want to
know where I went wrong.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Tim Fisher" <Tim@orerockon.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Monday, April 08, 2002 11:33 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI?
> Bingo. I have stayed away from home builders for months.
>
> At 09:34 PM 4/8/2002 -0500, you wrote:
> >Hi John,
> >
> >This is from Tuesday's IBD Big Picture (italics are mine):
> >
> >"Hovanian Enterprises
>
=
>(<javascript:popup=3Dwindow.open('http://www.investors.com/smartselect/S=
martS
=
elect.asp?x=3DJ3R4d5','SmartSelectPop','width=3D610,height=3D420,director=
ies=3Dno,st
=
atus=3Dno,location=3Dno,toolbar=3Dno,scrollbars=3Dno,resizable=3Dyes,menu=
bar=3Dno,copyhi
story=3Dno,alwaysRaised=3D0,dependent=3Dno');popup.focus();>HOV)
> >also surged to a new high. The stock jumped 2.84 to 29.70 in =
double
normal
> >volume. That cleared a five-week consolidation.
> >
> >It's instructive to monitor the health of the home builders. They =
can
give
> >you clues about the market's underlying strength. But don't =
blindly chase
> >these stocks. The leaders are far extended from their original =
breakouts.
> >The weaker stocks have revealed themselves with their subpar =
performance.
> >Neither makes a good investment candidate right now."
> >
> >Katherine
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: <mailto:jl@lessnau.com>John Lessnau
> >To: <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com
> >Sent: Monday, April 08, 2002 6:14 PM
> >Subject: [CANSLIM] --> CANSLI?
> >
> >Hi all, I just joined the list after reading "How to Make Money =
in
Stocks".
> >Is there a database of past CANSLIM listserver messages that I =
can search
> >before I ask questions that have probably been asked 50 times in =
the last
> >month? (Like: Since one of the tennents of CANSLIM is not to =
invest in
> >stocks during a bear market what have you all been doing for the =
last two
> >years...)
> >
> >Well I through "M" out the window a few days ago and made my =
first
"CANSLI"
> >investment in HOV. So far, so good!
> >
> >John
> >
> >
> >
> >-
> >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email
> >"<mailto:majordomo@xmission.com>majordomo@xmission.com"
> >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
>
> Tim Fisher
> Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
> Owner, Fisher Fisheries, Ltd.
> mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com
> WWW http://OreRockOn.com
>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Ok I deferred to the experts here and sold my
HOV......fortunately I am $400 richer for my mistake. This why I
bought:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<UL>
<LI><FONT size=2>Chart looks to be in a "Base on top of a Base". Pg.
169 ... Looks very similar to the example chart of Healthcare Compare
Corp. O'Neil states: "When the bearish phase in the overall market
eventually ends, the security will probably be one of the first to race into
new high ground and launch a tremendous advance."</FONT></LI>
<LI><FONT size=2>C: Five quarters of accelerated earnings: q1/01
.305 q2 /01 .477 q3/01 .709
q4/01 .739 and q1/02 .596 (Analysts foresee and strong
q2/02)</FONT></LI>
<LI><FONT size=2>A: HOV 5 year annually earnings per share show
outstanding growth.</FONT></LI>
<LI><FONT size=2>N: "Buy stocks as they are making new highs"</FONT></LI>
<LI><FONT size=2>S: Small market cap and volume increases as stock has moved
up.</FONT></LI>
<LI><FONT size=2>L: One of the top stocks in the strongest industry
group.</FONT></LI>
<LI><FONT size=2>I: Strong but not too strong institutional
ownership.</FONT></LI>
<LI><FONT size=2>M: <STRONG><EM>N/A : bear market</EM></STRONG> --
M does not apply for any current stocks. ---> CANSLI</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT><FONT size=2>Perhaps someone could point out an example
of a true current CANSLIM stock -- for educational purposes only
;-)</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=kmalm@earthlink.net href="mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=canslim@lists.xmission.com
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 09, 2002 8:39
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] -->
CANSLI?</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi John,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Homebuilding is a cyclical business by its nature. While the homebuilders
have enjoyed a long boom in this cycle (more recently lengthened by the Fed's
easing), its fairly clear that the cycle is nearing its end. That means that
most of the homebuilders do not have what it takes to fuel future growth. When
looking at any one stock in the group, its important to also check the
remaining stocks and see what kinds of earnings and sales they've been
printing in the last couple of quarters. Sure enough, most of the homebuilders
have seen a marked deceleration in both. Under CANSLIM rules, 2 quarters of
decelerating earnings after a long string of accelerating quarters is a sell
signal. The next thing you'd want to look at is the technical health of all
the players in the group. Pull up a chart of all the players and see what's
there. Almost every one of them has formed a head and shoulders topping
formation. While HOV and RYL appear to be bucking the trend, investing in them
long at this point is the equivalent of playing with fire.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>In sum, there are 3 things which qualify homebuilders as "stinky
fish":</DIV>
<DIV>(1) 2 quarters of decelerating earnings</DIV>
<DIV>(2) cyclical business nearing the end of the cycle, higher interest rates
pressuring sales and therefore taking away fuel for future growth</DIV>
<DIV>(3) group health is poor, most stocks are topping out.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=jl@lessnau.com href="mailto:jl@lessnau.com">John Lessnau</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=canslim@lists.xmission.com
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 09, 2002 6:45
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] -->
CANSLI?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>What part of CANSLIM does HOV not meet? I am in a
learning mode and want to<BR>know where I went wrong.<BR><BR>----- Original
Message -----<BR>From: "Tim Fisher" <<A
href="mailto:Tim@orerockon.com">Tim@orerockon.com</A>><BR>To: <<A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>><BR>Sent:
Monday, April 08, 2002 11:33 PM<BR>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] -->
CANSLI?<BR><BR><BR>> Bingo. I have stayed away from home builders for
months.<BR>><BR>> At 09:34 PM 4/8/2002 -0500, you wrote:<BR>>
>Hi John,<BR>> ><BR>> >This is from Tuesday's IBD Big Picture
(italics are mine):<BR>> ><BR>> >"Hovanian
Enterprises<BR>><BR>>(<javascript:popup=window.open('http://www.investors.com/smartselect/SmartS<BR>elect.asp?x=J3R4d5','SmartSelectPop','width=610,height=420,directories=no,st<BR>atus=no,location=no,toolbar=no,scrollbars=no,resizable=yes,menubar=no,copyhi<BR>story=no,alwaysRaised=0,dependent=no');popup.focus();>HOV)<BR>>
>also surged to a new high. The stock jumped 2.84 to 29.70 in
double<BR>normal<BR>> >volume. That cleared a five-week
consolidation.<BR>> ><BR>> >It's instructive to monitor the
health of the home builders. They can<BR>give<BR>> >you clues about
the market's underlying strength. But don't blindly chase<BR>> >these
stocks. The leaders are far extended from their original breakouts.<BR>>
>The weaker stocks have revealed themselves with their subpar
performance.<BR>> >Neither makes a good investment candidate right
now."<BR>> ><BR>> >Katherine<BR>> >----- Original Message
-----<BR>> >From: <<A
href="mailto:jl@lessnau.com>John">mailto:jl@lessnau.com>John</A>
Lessnau<BR>> >To: <<A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com">mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A><BR>>
>Sent: Monday, April 08, 2002 6:14 PM<BR>> >Subject: [CANSLIM]
--> CANSLI?<BR>> ><BR>> >Hi all, I just joined the list after
reading "How to Make Money in<BR>Stocks".<BR>> >Is there a database of
past CANSLIM listserver messages that I can search<BR>> >before I ask
questions that have probably been asked 50 times in the last<BR>>
>month? (Like: Since one of the tennents of CANSLIM is not to
invest in<BR>> >stocks during a bear market what have you all been
doing for the last two<BR>> >years...)<BR>> ><BR>> >Well I
through "M" out the window a few days ago and made my
first<BR>"CANSLI"<BR>> >investment in HOV. So far, so
good!<BR>> ><BR>> >John<BR>> ><BR>> ><BR>>
><BR>> >-<BR>> >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email<BR>>
>"<<A
href="mailto:majordomo@xmission.com>majordomo@xmission.com">mailto:majordomo@xmission.com>majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>>
>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>>
>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your
email.<BR>><BR>> Tim Fisher<BR>> Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web
Site<BR>> Owner, Fisher Fisheries, Ltd.<BR>> <A
href="mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com">mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com</A><BR>> WWW <A
href="http://OreRockOn.com">http://OreRockOn.com</A><BR>><BR>><BR>>
-<BR>> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A
href="mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>> -In
the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> -"unsubscribe
canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A
href="mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In the
email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do
not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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