Re: [CANSLIM] M for Market

From: "Dan Forant" <dforant1@nycap.rr.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M for Market
Date: Wed, 10 Apr 2002 07:43:50 -0400

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Absolutely, if your going to play just concentrate on the Sector/Industries
not the total market direction. Retail, financial, housing etc.

DanF
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Ian" <ianstm@shaw.ca>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, April 09, 2002 11:44 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M for Market


> "one should never, never,  buy a  stock in a dead market"
>
> No way. IMHO, the sector is way more important the market. If you were a
> DJIA or NYSE investor from Oct '98 to March '00, the 'market' would have
> looked like a terrible bear. There were even some who refused to buy
because
> of 'M' in that period. Yet a monkey on 6 beers could have thrown darts at
a
> NAZ tech stock with any kind of revenue or EPS growth and made several
> hundred percent returns (at a minimum).
>
> Anybody in housing, financials, and medicals (through the first 6-8
months)
> in 2001 felt like they were in a raging bull market.
>
> I also agree with you that a niche company whose business is strong can
> easily buck an index trend.
>
> IMHO, it boils down to the current strength of the business (revenue and
EPS
> growth, and margin expansion) along with valuation. Valuation doesn't
matter
> much in a raging bull, but it does matter when the indexes are dropping.
Any
> stock with strong growth, in a friendly sector, with a modest valuation
(and
> by inference - room for multiple growth, which is where the big returns
are
> made), that experiences a sustained surge in volume out of a strong base
can
> easily buck index directions.
>
> IMHO, a sustained surge in ADV, when there is room for multiples to double
> or triple, is the #1 predictor of medium-term price appreciation - not the
> market.
>
> Have a look at 3-year weekly charts where the volume is shown below the
> price, for the following stocks - TARO, MTON, DHI   WON gives a lot of
> lip-service to the volume on the breakout days, but what's really
important
> is how well that increase in volume is sustained - you'll see it in these
> charts.
>
>
> Ian
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <Davellil5@aol.com>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, April 09, 2002 10:13 AM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] M for Market
>
>
> > Recent email in our group indicates that one should never, never,  buy a
> > stock in a dead market.
> >
> > This rule is based  on the unstated premise that no stock can ever buck
> the
> > market -- or that there's no way to identify a stock that has a good
> chance
> > of bucking the market.  So, in a dead market, one should always stay in
> cash.
> >
> > Yet we've all seen the charts of hundreds of stocks that could, and did,
> buck
> > the spooky market of the past two years.  Our problem, friends, is how
to
> > spot those stocks before they rise out of reach, not to moan about the
> lousy
> > market.   What should we be looking for?
> >
> > One type of Company whose stock can buck this dead market -- I've
> observed --
> > is a Company in a niche business.  Usually, this kind of Company doesn't
> even
> > belong in its own industry group -- so it may buck its group as well as
> the
> > market as a whole.   I look for those.
> >
> > Purpose of this email is to pick y'all's brains.  What other types of
> > Companies have any  of you noticed with a propensity for bucking a dead
> > market.   This market may stay dead for awhile yet.  Let's pool, our
> brains
> > on what to look for.  I hope I get avalanched on this one
> >
> > Regards to all, Dave
> >
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