Re: [CANSLIM] Market Rally

From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Rally
Date: Thu, 11 Apr 2002 14:19:29 -0500
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Excellent point, Eric, and one that gets lost in the noise when trying =
to "read the market."

Katherine
  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: Eric Jaenike=20
  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  Sent: Thursday, April 11, 2002 8:38 AM
  Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Rally


  Agree that downturn materialized. As for requirement of undercutting =
low, I believe that applies to very early in the nascent rally only. =
Once a rally has moved the indices away from the low, the 3-5 day =
distribution rule takes effect. If you waited for an undercut of the =
previous low after a meaningful rally to call that rally dead, you'd be =
extremely late (assuming the rollover and downtrend even bought the =
indices below that previous low).=20

  Eric=20

    Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:=20

    Hi Rob,

    I just read the Ask Bill column and agree the wording is confusing. =
Here's what I see for recent action on the NASDAQ:

    Recent low set 2/22/02, close 1696.6
    By definition, a follow thru day (FTD) on 3/4/02, close 1790
    Uptrend stalled and turned around 3/8/02, close 1908
    While a new bull doesn't start without a FTD, a FTD doesn't =
necessarily mean we are in a sustained rally.
    Too many distribution days in a row makes it official, whatever =
chance there was of a rally on the NASDAQ is done for--

    Heavy distribution days on: 3/20/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/9/02

    Unless things change quickly, the downtrend remains intact.

    Katherine
      ----- Original Message -----=20
      From: Rob Miller=20
      To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
      Sent: Thursday, April 11, 2002 8:02 AM
      Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Rally


      I'm confused.  I noticed that on investors.com today, WON (or =
whoever answers these questions) states that there is no rally at this =
time because we haven't had a FTD off recent lows.  My understanding is =
that a rally is intact as long as the first day of the rally attempt is =
not undercut.  Therefore, the rally beginning in February is still in =
force.  You could argue that the rally failed because so few Canslim =
stocks were breaking out, but I don't recall that being a requirement to =
call the rally a failure, only a measure of the rally's strength.  IBD =
called the last follow through day and I don't remember them calling the =
rally a failure yet.  I don't read IBD every day so I may be missing =
something, but are they always this inconsistent.  The columns on the =
front page have also been questionable lately. =20

      Rob




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<META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=3DGENERATOR></HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV>Excellent point, Eric, and one&nbsp;that gets lost in the noise =
when trying=20
to "read the market."</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
  <A title=3Dericjaenike@yahoo.com =
href=3D"mailto:ericjaenike@yahoo.com">Eric=20
  Jaenike</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
 </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, April 11, 2002 =
8:38=20
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Market =
Rally</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <P>Agree that downturn materialized. As for requirement of =
undercutting low, I=20
  believe that applies to very early in the nascent rally only. Once a =
rally has=20
  moved the indices away from the low, the 3-5 day distribution rule =
takes=20
  effect. If you waited for an undercut of the previous low after a =
meaningful=20
  rally to call that rally dead, you'd be extremely late (assuming the =
rollover=20
  and downtrend&nbsp;even bought the indices below that previous low).=20
  <P>Eric=20
  <P>&nbsp; <B><I>Katherine Malm &lt;kmalm@earthlink.net&gt;</I></B> =
wrote:=20
  <BLOCKQUOTE=20
  style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px =
solid">
    <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=3DGENERATOR>
    <STYLE></STYLE>

    <DIV>Hi Rob,</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>I just read the Ask Bill column and agree the wording is =
confusing.=20
    Here's what I see for recent action on the NASDAQ:</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Recent low set 2/22/02, close 1696.6</DIV>
    <DIV>By definition, a follow thru day (FTD)&nbsp;on 3/4/02, close =
1790</DIV>
    <DIV>Uptrend stalled and turned around 3/8/02, close 1908</DIV>
    <DIV>While a new bull doesn't start without a FTD, a FTD doesn't =
necessarily=20
    mean we are in a sustained rally.</DIV>
    <DIV>Too many distribution days in a row makes it official, whatever =
chance=20
    there was of a rally on the NASDAQ is done for--</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Heavy distribution days on: 3/20/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, =
4/9/02</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Unless things change quickly, the downtrend remains =
intact.</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Katherine</DIV>
    <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
    style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
      <DIV=20
      style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
      <A title=3Drmiller2@carolina.rr.com=20
      href=3D"mailto:rmiller2@carolina.rr.com">Rob Miller</A> </DIV>
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
      title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
      =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
      </DIV>
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, April 11, =
2002 8:02=20
      AM</DIV>
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Market =
Rally</DIV>
      <DIV><BR></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I'm confused.&nbsp; I noticed =
that on=20
      investors.com today, WON (or whoever answers these questions) =
states that=20
      there is no rally at this time because we haven't had a FTD off =
recent=20
      lows.&nbsp; My understanding is that a rally is intact as long as =
the=20
      first day of the rally attempt is not undercut.&nbsp; Therefore, =
the rally=20
      beginning in February is still in force.&nbsp; You could argue =
that the=20
      rally failed because so few Canslim stocks were breaking out, but =
I don't=20
      recall that being a requirement to call the rally a failure, only =
a=20
      measure of the rally's strength.&nbsp; IBD called the last follow =
through=20
      day and I don't remember them calling the rally a failure =
yet.&nbsp; I=20
      don't read IBD every day so I may be missing something, but are =
they=20
      always this inconsistent.&nbsp; The columns on the front page have =
also=20
      been questionable lately.&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2>Rob</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE>
  <P><BR>
  <HR SIZE=3D1>
  <B>Do You Yahoo!?</B><BR><A=20
  href=3D"$rd_url/welcome/?http://taxes.yahoo.com/">Yahoo! Tax =
Center</A> - online=20
  filing with TurboTax</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

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