Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Date: Sat, 13 Apr 2002 14:17:49 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0075_01C1E2F5.FDD145E0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Thanks for the analysis, Patrick. Here's a link to a chart that shows = Sector Rotation during economic cycles. Look toward the bottom of the = page for the current location in the cycle: http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html I'm not so sure that technology itself is going to lead for a very long = time. I'll bet the more "mundane" businesses will be the winning stocks = for quite a while. Some of that may be because of the excessive = valuations you mentioned, some of it may be related to taking out excess = capacity through much of the tech sectors. It's hard for me personally, = because I don't get all that excited performing due diligence on = non-tech stocks..... ah well, what doesn't kill us makes us stronger. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Patrick Wahl=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 1:44 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally? On 13 Apr 2002 at 12:35, Duke Miller wrote: > I don't want to start anything, but....since it's the weekend. oh sure.... > So what kind of market are we in, anyway? > =20 I was trying to answer this question the other night, all I could = figure out is that the=20 market is mixed up. Here are some observations, maybe someone can put = things=20 together. Nasdaq selling off after rally to a lower high than the high set in = January. Right now=20 sitting near support set about 2/22, below 50 day MA, which is sloping = down. S&P a little stronger, recent rally carried it just about back to old = highs, it is=20 somewhat above those Feb. lows, support around 1075, also below 50 = day. Dow quite a bit stronger, the recent high surpassed the Jan. highs, = recent selloff not=20 as severe, it's sitting on 50 day MA. Russell 2000 at its highest level since July, made new high on Friday = relative to last=20 8 or 9 months. Vix is up a little bit, off the very low levels it was at, but still = towards the low end of=20 its range (lower means too much optimism, a contrary indicator). I = also notice that=20 the cummulative A/D line for the NYSE has been in a steady uptrend = since Sept.=20 lows, the Nasdaq A/D line has rallied a bit, but for the last 2 months = has gone=20 sideways to lower. Lets see - large caps doing ok in the form of the Dow, small caps are = the strongest=20 group as represented byt the Russell 2000 (that would be our little = universe of=20 canslim stocks), the S&P and Nasdaq, I think you could say the real = guts of the=20 market in terms of broad representation of industries and a large = chunk of the total=20 market cap, are looking flat to weak. Maybe someone can say something about which stocks should be leading = if we are=20 at the beginning of an economic recovery, I'm not sure how to = interepret this stuff,=20 like I said. I think valuations may still be weighing on the nasdaq, = and what I am=20 reading says this will be a weak to moderate recovery, so earnings may = not be=20 storng enough to allow the nasdaq to really get rolling this year. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_0075_01C1E2F5.FDD145E0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV>Thanks for the analysis, Patrick. Here's a link to a chart that = shows=20 Sector Rotation during economic cycles. Look toward the bottom of the = page for=20 the current location in the cycle:</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A=20 href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html">http://= stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I'm not so sure that technology itself is going to lead for a very = long=20 time. I'll bet the more "mundane" businesses will be the winning stocks = for=20 quite a while. Some of that may be because of the excessive valuations = you=20 mentioned, some of it may be related to taking out excess capacity = through=20 much of the tech sectors. It's hard for me personally, because I don't = get all=20 that excited performing due diligence on non-tech stocks..... ah well, = what=20 doesn't kill us makes us stronger.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Katherine</DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dpjwahl@attbi.com href=3D"mailto:pjwahl@attbi.com">Patrick = Wahl</A>=20 </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, April 13, 2002 = 1:44=20 PM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear = Rally?</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV><BR><BR>On 13 Apr 2002 at 12:35, Duke Miller = wrote:<BR><BR>>=20 I don't want to start anything, but....since it's the = weekend.<BR><BR>oh=20 sure....<BR><BR>> So what kind of market are we in, = anyway?<BR>> =20 <BR><BR>I was trying to answer this question the other night, all I = could=20 figure out is that the <BR>market is mixed up. Here are some=20 observations, maybe someone can put things <BR>together.<BR><BR>Nasdaq = selling=20 off after rally to a lower high than the high set in January. = Right now=20 <BR>sitting near support set about 2/22, below 50 day MA, which is = sloping=20 down.<BR><BR>S&P a little stronger, recent rally carried it just = about=20 back to old highs, it is <BR>somewhat above those Feb. lows, support = around=20 1075, also below 50 day.<BR><BR>Dow quite a bit stronger, the recent = high=20 surpassed the Jan. highs, recent selloff not <BR>as severe, it's = sitting on 50=20 day MA.<BR><BR>Russell 2000 at its highest level since July, made new = high on=20 Friday relative to last <BR>8 or 9 months.<BR><BR>Vix is up a little = bit,=20 off the very low levels it was at, but still towards the low end = of=20 <BR>its range (lower means too much optimism, a contrary=20 indicator). I also notice that <BR>the cummulative A/D line for = the NYSE=20 has been in a steady uptrend since Sept. <BR>lows, the Nasdaq A/D line = has=20 rallied a bit, but for the last 2 months has gone <BR>sideways to=20 lower.<BR><BR>Lets see - large caps doing ok in the form of the Dow, = small=20 caps are the strongest <BR>group as represented byt the Russell 2000 = (that=20 would be our little universe of <BR>canslim stocks), the S&P and = Nasdaq, I=20 think you could say the real guts of the <BR>market in terms of broad=20 representation of industries and a large chunk of the total <BR>market = cap,=20 are looking flat to weak.<BR><BR>Maybe someone can say something about = which=20 stocks should be leading if we are <BR>at the beginning of an economic = recovery, I'm not sure how to interepret this stuff, <BR>like I=20 said. I think valuations may still be weighing on the = nasdaq, and=20 what I am <BR>reading says this will be a weak to moderate recovery, = so=20 earnings may not be <BR>storng enough to allow the nasdaq to = really get=20 rolling this year.<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To = subscribe/unsubscribe,=20 email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0075_01C1E2F5.FDD145E0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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