Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Date: Sat, 13 Apr 2002 22:16:14 -0500
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Couldn't agree with you more, Ian. Great point.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 10:28 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
"I'll bet the more "mundane" businesses will be the winning stocks for =
quite a while."
Katherine - I couldn't agree more. However, I think the 'reason' IS =
quite exciting: The spread of global democracy and capitalism. The =
boring industries that haven't seen growth stocks in the Western world =
for quite some time, are going to show robust growth in the developing =
world as they build up their core infrastructure while raising their =
standard of living.
JMHO. We'll see.
Ian
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 12:17 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Thanks for the analysis, Patrick. Here's a link to a chart that =
shows Sector Rotation during economic cycles. Look toward the bottom of =
the page for the current location in the cycle:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html
I'm not so sure that technology itself is going to lead for a very =
long time. I'll bet the more "mundane" businesses will be the winning =
stocks for quite a while. Some of that may be because of the excessive =
valuations you mentioned, some of it may be related to taking out excess =
capacity through much of the tech sectors. It's hard for me personally, =
because I don't get all that excited performing due diligence on =
non-tech stocks..... ah well, what doesn't kill us makes us stronger.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Patrick Wahl=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 1:44 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
On 13 Apr 2002 at 12:35, Duke Miller wrote:
> I don't want to start anything, but....since it's the weekend.
oh sure....
> So what kind of market are we in, anyway?
> =20
I was trying to answer this question the other night, all I could =
figure out is that the=20
market is mixed up. Here are some observations, maybe someone can =
put things=20
together.
Nasdaq selling off after rally to a lower high than the high set =
in January. Right now=20
sitting near support set about 2/22, below 50 day MA, which is =
sloping down.
S&P a little stronger, recent rally carried it just about back to =
old highs, it is=20
somewhat above those Feb. lows, support around 1075, also below 50 =
day.
Dow quite a bit stronger, the recent high surpassed the Jan. =
highs, recent selloff not=20
as severe, it's sitting on 50 day MA.
Russell 2000 at its highest level since July, made new high on =
Friday relative to last=20
8 or 9 months.
Vix is up a little bit, off the very low levels it was at, but =
still towards the low end of=20
its range (lower means too much optimism, a contrary indicator). =
I also notice that=20
the cummulative A/D line for the NYSE has been in a steady uptrend =
since Sept.=20
lows, the Nasdaq A/D line has rallied a bit, but for the last 2 =
months has gone=20
sideways to lower.
Lets see - large caps doing ok in the form of the Dow, small caps =
are the strongest=20
group as represented byt the Russell 2000 (that would be our =
little universe of=20
canslim stocks), the S&P and Nasdaq, I think you could say the =
real guts of the=20
market in terms of broad representation of industries and a large =
chunk of the total=20
market cap, are looking flat to weak.
Maybe someone can say something about which stocks should be =
leading if we are=20
at the beginning of an economic recovery, I'm not sure how to =
interepret this stuff,=20
like I said. I think valuations may still be weighing on the =
nasdaq, and what I am=20
reading says this will be a weak to moderate recovery, so earnings =
may not be=20
storng enough to allow the nasdaq to really get rolling this =
year.
-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
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<DIV>Couldn't agree with you more, Ian. Great point.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, April 13, 2002 =
10:28=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear =
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>"I'll bet the more "mundane" businesses will be =
the winning=20
stocks for quite a while."</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Katherine - I couldn't agree more. However, I =
think the=20
'reason' IS quite exciting: The spread of global democracy and =
capitalism. The=20
boring industries that haven't seen growth stocks in the Western world =
for=20
quite some time, are going to show robust growth in the developing =
world as=20
they build up their core infrastructure while raising their standard =
of=20
living.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>JMHO. We'll see.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, April 13, =
2002 12:17=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear=20
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Thanks for the analysis, Patrick. Here's a link to a chart that =
shows=20
Sector Rotation during economic cycles. Look toward the bottom of =
the page=20
for the current location in the cycle:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A=20
=
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html">http://=
stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I'm not so sure that technology itself is going to lead for a =
very long=20
time. I'll bet the more "mundane" businesses will be the winning =
stocks for=20
quite a while. Some of that may be because of the excessive =
valuations you=20
mentioned, some of it may be related to taking out =
excess capacity=20
through much of the tech sectors. It's hard for me personally, =
because I=20
don't get all that excited performing due diligence on non-tech =
stocks.....=20
ah well, what doesn't kill us makes us stronger.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dpjwahl@attbi.com =
href=3D"mailto:pjwahl@attbi.com">Patrick Wahl</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, April 13, =
2002 1:44=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear =
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><BR><BR>On 13 Apr 2002 at 12:35, Duke Miller=20
wrote:<BR><BR>> I don't want to start anything, but....since =
it's the=20
weekend.<BR><BR>oh sure....<BR><BR>> So what kind of market are =
we in,=20
anyway?<BR>> <BR><BR>I was trying to answer this question =
the=20
other night, all I could figure out is that the <BR>market is =
mixed=20
up. Here are some observations, maybe someone can put things =
<BR>together.<BR><BR>Nasdaq selling off after rally to a lower =
high than=20
the high set in January. Right now <BR>sitting near support =
set=20
about 2/22, below 50 day MA, which is sloping down.<BR><BR>S&P =
a=20
little stronger, recent rally carried it just about back to old =
highs, it=20
is <BR>somewhat above those Feb. lows, support around 1075, also =
below 50=20
day.<BR><BR>Dow quite a bit stronger, the recent high surpassed =
the Jan.=20
highs, recent selloff not <BR>as severe, it's sitting on 50 day=20
MA.<BR><BR>Russell 2000 at its highest level since July, made new =
high on=20
Friday relative to last <BR>8 or 9 months.<BR><BR>Vix is up a =
little bit,=20
off the very low levels it was at, but still towards the low =
end of=20
<BR>its range (lower means too much optimism, a contrary=20
indicator). I also notice that <BR>the cummulative A/D line =
for the=20
NYSE has been in a steady uptrend since Sept. <BR>lows, the Nasdaq =
A/D=20
line has rallied a bit, but for the last 2 months has gone =
<BR>sideways to=20
lower.<BR><BR>Lets see - large caps doing ok in the form of the =
Dow, small=20
caps are the strongest <BR>group as represented byt the Russell =
2000 (that=20
would be our little universe of <BR>canslim stocks), the S&P =
and=20
Nasdaq, I think you could say the real guts of the <BR>market in =
terms of=20
broad representation of industries and a large chunk of the total=20
<BR>market cap, are looking flat to weak.<BR><BR>Maybe someone can =
say=20
something about which stocks should be leading if we are <BR>at =
the=20
beginning of an economic recovery, I'm not sure how to interepret =
this=20
stuff, <BR>like I said. I think valuations may still =
be=20
weighing on the nasdaq, and what I am <BR>reading says this will =
be a weak=20
to moderate recovery, so earnings may not be <BR>storng enough to =
allow=20
the nasdaq to really get rolling this=20
year.<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email =
"<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In=
=20
the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe=20
canslim". Do not use quotes in your=20
email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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