Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Robert McGill" <bluecliff@hotmail.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Date: Sun, 14 Apr 2002 11:07:26 -0400
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I think that when discussing small cap it is impt to make a distinction =
between growth and value. Value is currently leading.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 10:44 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Duke, Tom, jans,
I'll bet the small to large cap migration has more to do with the =
length of the Secular Bull than anything else. In the early stages of a =
new Bull market, small caps (especially those with high growth =
characteristics) lead the market. It makes intuitive sense. As the bull =
wears on, those "small caps" become "big caps" as more and more money =
is drawn to the stock. It's the very thing that CANSLIM is looking for =
in the "I"...that is, you watch for evidence of institutional monies =
moving into the stock and then just follow their lead. Once the stocks =
put in their 3rd and 4th stage bases, everybody knows about them and =
their market caps are quite large in comparison to where they were when =
they blew out of their first stage bases. Nearly every high flier late =
in '98 and '99 was a late stage base. Only those companies that have the =
wherewithal to survive as a business and expand their markets will set =
up new first stage bases. Non-CANSLIMers are still chasing AOL, DELL, =
CSCO, etc., all former winners and all large caps due to their huge runs =
in the 90's. CANSLIMers know better....go to strength, regardless of =
market cap. It just so happens small and mid-cap are leading right now =
and that is one more piece of evidence for the "emerging new bull" point =
of view.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Duke,
We don't need a new letter, we already have "S". Of course, over the =
years
WON has redefined this letter. In my first edition of HTMMIS, this =
letter
was defined as "S=3DSupply and Demand: Small Capitalization Plus =
Volume
Demand" and WON indicated that you should look for a company with =
only a few
million shares outstanding. He also favored "Stocks that have a =
large
percentage of ownership by top management are generally your better
prospects". He also noted that the "average capitalization of top =
performing
listed stocks from 1970 through 1982 was 11.8 million shares. The =
median
stock exhibited 4.6 million shares outstanding before advancing =
rapidly in
price."
Of course, a lot has changed since my copy was published in 1991, =
and I
doubt either WON or IBD today would champion small cap stocks, much =
less
ones this small. WON went over to the big cap camp over five years =
ago, and
I have seen little evidence of him adhering to the "S" since then.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:55 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Jans:
Good thinking and input for the neighborhood. Can you say =
"CANSLICM?"
Not long ago we debated herein the capitalization definitions. Do =
you
suppose their (IBD's) definitions in the IC (<=3D1bb is small; =
>=3D5bb is
large; mid in between) conform to the S&P 600 (Small), 400 (mid), =
and
500 (big)?
Duke
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of =
Spencer48@aol.com
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 1:15 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Katherine and Duke:
In today's Investor's Corner (4/15) the column focuses on the =
fact
that
small caps are doing well while the big caps are lagging. This =
approach
is
interesting. Apparently one should look at: The Mkts ->The =
Industry ->
The
Capitalization (whether the stock is a big cap or a small cap makes =
a
difference, according to the article, regarding the probability that =
the
stock will take off. If small caps are currently being favored =
than
investing in big caps is less likely to garner a winner.)
-> (and finally) The Stock.
So it looks as if one should go through the above checklist to =
find
a
stock that will be a winner. (Apropos, I wonder if anyone has =
compared
the
industry [I know CANSLIM uses a Strong Industry as a necessary
forerunner of
a strong stock] with the favored capitalization at the time.
For instance, if XYZ industry is the industry that CANSLIM/WON
favors at
the present, would the capitalization of the stock that is in that
industry
make a significant difference as to its return, ie. do the =
statistics
confirm
that not only the industry, but also the capitalization of the stock =
in
that
industry, is a big factor in the movement up of that stock? )
jans
In a message dated 4/13/2002 12:50:16 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
kmalm@earthlink.net writes:
<< MessageHi Duke,
I read the article and thought the same thing. I think the real =
issue
is
that when all stocks are not in a Bull Market, you can't talk
meaningfully
about "THE Market" any longer. For example, the last couple of years =
of
"the
great Bull", the Dow ran sideways while the NASDAQ screamed. The =
article
today only reinforces that notion. That is, some stocks are going =
up,
others
are going down, others are moving sideways. That's always the case, =
but
when
equities aren't the absolute best place to put your money for "sure"
gains,
the marginal dollars will flow to other investment classes and the =
rest
of
the market will ebb and flow. If nothing else, it just reminds us as
CANSLIM
investors that we have to pick only the best candidates and follow =
sound
buy/sell rules. I don't think there's going to be a clear direction =
for
"the
Market" as a whole for many years. We're going to have to read the
health of
the CANSLIM market (i.e. CANSLIM-quality stocks) and then go for
strength
within that.
Katherine
PS.... The term "rally" is used in many contexts, even within the =
IBD
and
Investors.com. Is it an upswing? Is it action after a followthru =
day? Is
it a
Bull? How persistent does an upswing need to be before it's no =
longer
considered "a rally"? Rally relative to what? relative to when?
Geez....very
confusing terminology. >>
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I think that when discussing small cap =
it is impt=20
to make a distinction between growth and value. Value is currently =
leading.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, 2002 =
10:44=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear =
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Duke, Tom, jans,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I'll bet the small to large cap migration has more to do with the =
length=20
of the Secular Bull than anything else. In the early stages of a new =
Bull=20
market, small caps (especially those with high growth characteristics) =
lead=20
the market. It makes intuitive sense. As the bull wears on, those =
"small=20
caps" become "big caps" as more and more money is drawn to the =
stock.=20
It's the very thing that CANSLIM is looking for in the "I"...that is, =
you=20
watch for evidence of institutional monies moving into the stock and =
then just=20
follow their lead. Once the stocks put in their 3rd and 4th stage =
bases,=20
everybody knows about them and their market caps are quite large in =
comparison=20
to where they were when they blew out of their first stage bases. =
Nearly every=20
high flier late in '98 and '99 was a late stage base. Only those =
companies=20
that have the wherewithal to survive as a business and expand =
their=20
markets will set up new first stage bases. Non-CANSLIMers =
are=20
still chasing AOL, DELL, CSCO, etc., all former winners and all =
large=20
caps due to their huge runs in the 90's. CANSLIMers know better....go =
to=20
strength, regardless of market cap. It just so happens small and =
mid-cap are=20
leading right now and that is one more piece of evidence for the=20
"emerging new bull" point of view.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@bellsouth.net =
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, 2002 =
9:20=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear=20
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Duke,<BR><BR>We don't need a new letter, we already =
have "S".=20
Of course, over the years<BR>WON has redefined this letter. In my =
first=20
edition of HTMMIS, this letter<BR>was defined as "S=3DSupply and =
Demand: Small=20
Capitalization Plus Volume<BR>Demand" and WON indicated that you =
should look=20
for a company with only a few<BR>million shares outstanding. He also =
favored=20
"Stocks that have a large<BR>percentage of ownership by top =
management are=20
generally your better<BR>prospects". He also noted that the "average =
capitalization of top performing<BR>listed stocks from 1970 through =
1982 was=20
11.8 million shares. The median<BR>stock exhibited 4.6 million =
shares=20
outstanding before advancing rapidly in<BR>price."<BR><BR>Of course, =
a lot=20
has changed since my copy was published in 1991, and I<BR>doubt =
either WON=20
or IBD today would champion small cap stocks, much less<BR>ones this =
small.=20
WON went over to the big cap camp over five years ago, and<BR>I have =
seen=20
little evidence of him adhering to the "S" since then.<BR><BR>Tom=20
Worley<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR>----- Original Message -----<BR>From: "Duke Miller" =
<<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com">dukemill@tampabay.rr.com</A>>=
<BR>To:=20
<<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
><BR>Sent:=20
Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:55 AM<BR>Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear=20
Rally?<BR><BR><BR>Jans:<BR><BR>Good thinking and input for the =
neighborhood.=20
Can you say "CANSLICM?"<BR><BR>Not long ago we debated herein the=20
capitalization definitions. Do you<BR>suppose their (IBD's)=20
definitions in the IC (<=3D1bb is small; >=3D5bb is<BR>large; =
mid in=20
between) conform to the S&P 600 (Small), 400 (mid), and<BR>500=20
(big)?<BR><BR>Duke<BR><BR>-----Original Message-----<BR>From: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis=
sion.com</A><BR>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20
On Behalf Of <A=20
href=3D"mailto:Spencer48@aol.com">Spencer48@aol.com</A><BR>Sent: =
Sunday, April=20
14, 2002 1:15 AM<BR>To: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR>Subject:=20
Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?<BR><BR><BR>Katherine and=20
Duke:<BR><BR> In today's Investor's Corner =
(4/15)=20
the column focuses on the fact<BR>that<BR>small caps are doing well =
while=20
the big caps are lagging. This =
approach<BR>is<BR>interesting. =20
Apparently one should look at: The Mkts ->The Industry=20
-><BR>The<BR>Capitalization (whether the stock is a big cap or a =
small=20
cap makes a<BR>difference, according to the article, regarding the=20
probability that the<BR><BR>stock will take off. If small caps =
are=20
currently being favored than<BR>investing in big caps is less =
likely=20
to garner a winner.)<BR>-> (and finally) The=20
Stock.<BR><BR> So it looks as if one should =
go=20
through the above checklist to find<BR>a<BR>stock that will be a=20
winner. (Apropos, I wonder if anyone has =
compared<BR>the<BR>industry=20
[I know CANSLIM uses a Strong Industry as a necessary<BR>forerunner =
of<BR>a=20
strong stock] with the favored capitalization at the=20
time.<BR><BR> For instance, if XYZ industry =
is the=20
industry that CANSLIM/WON<BR>favors at<BR>the present, would the=20
capitalization of the stock that is in =
that<BR>industry<BR>make a=20
significant difference as to its return, ie. do the=20
statistics<BR>confirm<BR>that not only the industry, but also the=20
capitalization of the stock in<BR>that<BR>industry, is a big factor =
in the=20
movement up of that stock? )<BR><BR>jans<BR><BR><BR><BR>In a message =
dated=20
4/13/2002 12:50:16 PM Eastern Daylight Time,<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">kmalm@earthlink.net</A>=20
writes:<BR><BR><< MessageHi Duke,<BR><BR> I read the =
article and=20
thought the same thing. I think the real issue<BR>is<BR>that when =
all stocks=20
are not in a Bull Market, you can't talk<BR>meaningfully<BR>about =
"THE=20
Market" any longer. For example, the last couple of years=20
of<BR>"the<BR>great Bull", the Dow ran sideways while the NASDAQ =
screamed.=20
The article<BR><BR>today only reinforces that notion. That is, some =
stocks=20
are going up,<BR>others<BR>are going down, others are moving =
sideways.=20
That's always the case, but<BR>when<BR>equities aren't the absolute =
best=20
place to put your money for "sure"<BR>gains,<BR>the marginal dollars =
will=20
flow to other investment classes and the rest<BR>of<BR>the market =
will ebb=20
and flow. If nothing else, it just reminds us =
as<BR>CANSLIM<BR>investors=20
that we have to pick only the best candidates and follow=20
sound<BR><BR>buy/sell rules. I don't think there's going to be a =
clear=20
direction for<BR>"the<BR>Market" as a whole for many years. We're =
going to=20
have to read the<BR>health of<BR>the CANSLIM market (i.e. =
CANSLIM-quality=20
stocks) and then go for<BR>strength<BR>within=20
that.<BR><BR> Katherine<BR><BR> PS.... The term "rally" is =
used in=20
many contexts, even within the IBD<BR>and<BR>Investors.com. Is it an =
upswing? Is it action after a followthru day? Is<BR>it a<BR>Bull? =
How=20
persistent does an upswing need to be before it's no =
longer<BR>considered "a=20
rally"? Rally relative to what? relative to=20
when?<BR>Geez....very<BR>confusing terminology.=20
>></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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