Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Ira Post" <ip108@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Date: Sun, 14 Apr 2002 12:42:34 -0400
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Mona and Katherine,
Very good points on market direction. We'd all love to have another =
bull market, but we haven't sufficiently absorbed the last one. P/E's =
are still very high. I think a sideways move for a number of years is a =
very likely transition to whatever comes next. I also agree that tech =
stocks will recover somewhat, but not lead the market like they did in =
the nineties.
Tech stocks are often like Hostess Twinkies. They're so attractive, but =
usually lack substance. One has to be very careful to use good due =
diligence on the financials on tech stocks like on every other stock.
Ira
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 12:10 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Hi Mona,
Some comments on your points--
1. I've always believed that the same steps in due diligence have to =
be taken on all stocks, regardless of the business, and I do this =
without exception. I look at it as the difference between reading an =
instruction manual and a good book. Both have value, one I plod through, =
the other I fly through.
2. Agreed that little economic progress can be made without =
technological innovation, and this will continue to drive economic =
growth. However, the era of "all tech all the time" is over. Tech will =
continue to innovate, but the market will not necessarily be dominated =
by tech names in the same way it was in the last Bull. It's innovation =
in general that garners market winners. That innovation can take many =
forms from tech, to business market redefinition, new applications for =
existing technologies, etc.
3. Pull out a chart of the market from the mid 1960's to about 1982. =
*That's* a sideways market. (You can see the same thing in the market =
after the crash of 1929. That sideways market went on until about 1949) =
Within a sideways market there are winners and losers, up and down =
waves, but the market as a whole from the beginning of the cycle to the =
end is for the most part flat. Exploiting sector rotation with the =
strongest stocks is key to successfully investing in such a market.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Mona Guarino=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 1:52 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Katherine --=20
1. on the one hand, due diligence on non-tech stocks may not be as =
exciting for the tech-minded among us, but as a newbie to the CANSLIM =
principles, I am finding that it forces me to stay focused on the =
investing process and I don't get as distracted by excitement of the the =
technology itself. For me, not a bad thing at the moment to have my =
focus enforced.
2. I agree that tech is very unlikely to lead as it did before. But, =
I don't see intuitively how any overall improvement in the market can =
occur without at least improving tech's current position. How does =
anyone to it cheaper / better / faster without an effect on tech?
3. In various messages, you seem to indicate that you believe the =
current directionlessness of the market will continue for years. =
Definietly think that that's where we are now and that it's not going to =
change in the next quarter or two, but wonder what suggests it will be =
many more years of this.
-- Mona
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</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Mona and Katherine,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Very good points on market =
direction. We'd=20
all love to have another bull market, but we haven't sufficiently =
absorbed the=20
last one. P/E's are still very high. I think a sideways move =
for a=20
number of years is a very likely transition to whatever comes =
next. I also=20
agree that tech stocks will recover somewhat, but not lead the market =
like they=20
did in the nineties.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Tech stocks are often like Hostess =
Twinkies. =20
They're so attractive, but usually lack substance. One has to be =
very=20
careful to use good due diligence on the financials on tech stocks like =
on every=20
other stock.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ira</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, 2002 =
12:10=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear =
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Mona,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Some comments on your points--</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>1. I've always believed that the same steps in due diligence have =
to be=20
taken on all stocks, regardless of the business, and I do this without =
exception. I look at it as the difference between reading an =
instruction=20
manual and a good book. Both have value, one I plod through, the other =
I fly=20
through.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>2. Agreed that little economic progress can be made without =
technological=20
innovation, and this will continue to drive economic growth. However, =
the era=20
of "all tech all the time" is over. Tech will continue to innovate, =
but the=20
market will not necessarily be dominated by tech names in the same way =
it was=20
in the last Bull. It's innovation in general that garners market =
winners. That=20
innovation can take many forms from tech, to business market =
redefinition, new=20
applications for existing technologies, etc.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>3. Pull out a chart of the market from the mid 1960's to about =
1982.=20
*That's* a sideways market. (You can see the same thing in the market =
after=20
the crash of 1929. That sideways market went on until about 1949) =
Within a=20
sideways market there are winners and losers, up and down waves, but =
the=20
market as a whole from the beginning of the cycle to the end is for =
the most=20
part flat. Exploiting sector rotation with the strongest =
stocks is key to=20
successfully investing in such a market.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dwebmaster@design21.com =
href=3D"mailto:webmaster@design21.com">Mona=20
Guarino</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, 2002 =
1:52=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] Bear=20
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D510423418-14042002>Katherine -- </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D510423418-14042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D510423418-14042002>1.=20
on the one hand, due diligence on non-tech stocks may not be as =
exciting for=20
the tech-minded among us, but as a newbie to the CANSLIM principles, =
I am=20
finding that it forces me to stay focused on the investing process =
and I=20
don't get as distracted by excitement of the the technology itself. =
For me,=20
not a bad thing at the moment to have my focus =
enforced.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D510423418-14042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D510423418-14042002>2.=20
I agree that tech is very unlikely to lead as it did before. But, I =
don't=20
see intuitively how any overall improvement in the market can occur =
without=20
at least improving tech's current position. How does anyone to it =
cheaper /=20
better / faster without an effect on tech?</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D510423418-14042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D510423418-14042002>3. In various messages, you seem to =
indicate=20
that you believe the current directionlessness of the market will =
continue=20
for years. Definietly think that that's where we are now and that =
it's not=20
going to change in the next quarter or two, but wonder what suggests =
it will=20
be many more years of this.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D510423418-14042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D510423418-14042002>--=20
Mona</SPAN></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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