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Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Date: Sun, 14 Apr 2002 12:43:35 -0400
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well said, Katherine.=20
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 12:35 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Robert,
That was not the point of the discussion. While I am not going to =
dispute the returns on precious metals, it is not the charter of this =
group to discuss commodities. Your insistence on turning every =
discussion into a reference to gold stocks is bordering on touting and I =
believe inappropriate for list discussion.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Robert McGill=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 11:30 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Those are certainly incredible returns with etf's. How do they stack =
up against precious metals?
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 11:25 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Robert,
While Small Cap Value is leading, the small cap growth, mid cap =
growth, mid cap value are also very strong and posting similar results. =
All of them are dwarfing large cap value and growth.
Since the most recent market bottom 9/21, here are the returns using =
the ETF's as proxy:
Small Cap Growth: +34.78%
Mid Cap Growth: + 33.5%
Small Cap Value: + 45.35%
Mid Cap Value: + 34.8%
Certainly nothing to sneeze at.
See a chart at:
=
http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+ijt,ijk,iwf,ijs,ijj,ive
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Robert McGill=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 10:07 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
I think that when discussing small cap it is impt to make a =
distinction between growth and value. Value is currently leading.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 10:44 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Duke, Tom, jans,
I'll bet the small to large cap migration has more to do with =
the length of the Secular Bull than anything else. In the early stages =
of a new Bull market, small caps (especially those with high growth =
characteristics) lead the market. It makes intuitive sense. As the bull =
wears on, those "small caps" become "big caps" as more and more money =
is drawn to the stock. It's the very thing that CANSLIM is looking for =
in the "I"...that is, you watch for evidence of institutional monies =
moving into the stock and then just follow their lead. Once the stocks =
put in their 3rd and 4th stage bases, everybody knows about them and =
their market caps are quite large in comparison to where they were when =
they blew out of their first stage bases. Nearly every high flier late =
in '98 and '99 was a late stage base. Only those companies that have the =
wherewithal to survive as a business and expand their markets will set =
up new first stage bases. Non-CANSLIMers are still chasing AOL, DELL, =
CSCO, etc., all former winners and all large caps due to their huge runs =
in the 90's. CANSLIMers know better....go to strength, regardless of =
market cap. It just so happens small and mid-cap are leading right now =
and that is one more piece of evidence for the "emerging new bull" point =
of view.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Duke,
We don't need a new letter, we already have "S". Of course, =
over the years
WON has redefined this letter. In my first edition of HTMMIS, =
this letter
was defined as "S=3DSupply and Demand: Small Capitalization =
Plus Volume
Demand" and WON indicated that you should look for a company =
with only a few
million shares outstanding. He also favored "Stocks that have =
a large
percentage of ownership by top management are generally your =
better
prospects". He also noted that the "average capitalization of =
top performing
listed stocks from 1970 through 1982 was 11.8 million shares. =
The median
stock exhibited 4.6 million shares outstanding before =
advancing rapidly in
price."
Of course, a lot has changed since my copy was published in =
1991, and I
doubt either WON or IBD today would champion small cap stocks, =
much less
ones this small. WON went over to the big cap camp over five =
years ago, and
I have seen little evidence of him adhering to the "S" since =
then.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:55 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Jans:
Good thinking and input for the neighborhood. Can you say =
"CANSLICM?"
Not long ago we debated herein the capitalization definitions. =
Do you
suppose their (IBD's) definitions in the IC (<=3D1bb is small; =
>=3D5bb is
large; mid in between) conform to the S&P 600 (Small), 400 =
(mid), and
500 (big)?
Duke
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of =
Spencer48@aol.com
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 1:15 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Katherine and Duke:
In today's Investor's Corner (4/15) the column focuses on =
the fact
that
small caps are doing well while the big caps are lagging. =
This approach
is
interesting. Apparently one should look at: The Mkts ->The =
Industry ->
The
Capitalization (whether the stock is a big cap or a small cap =
makes a
difference, according to the article, regarding the =
probability that the
stock will take off. If small caps are currently being =
favored than
investing in big caps is less likely to garner a winner.)
-> (and finally) The Stock.
So it looks as if one should go through the above =
checklist to find
a
stock that will be a winner. (Apropos, I wonder if anyone has =
compared
the
industry [I know CANSLIM uses a Strong Industry as a necessary
forerunner of
a strong stock] with the favored capitalization at the time.
For instance, if XYZ industry is the industry that =
CANSLIM/WON
favors at
the present, would the capitalization of the stock that is in =
that
industry
make a significant difference as to its return, ie. do the =
statistics
confirm
that not only the industry, but also the capitalization of the =
stock in
that
industry, is a big factor in the movement up of that stock? )
jans
In a message dated 4/13/2002 12:50:16 PM Eastern Daylight =
Time,
kmalm@earthlink.net writes:
<< MessageHi Duke,
I read the article and thought the same thing. I think the =
real issue
is
that when all stocks are not in a Bull Market, you can't talk
meaningfully
about "THE Market" any longer. For example, the last couple of =
years of
"the
great Bull", the Dow ran sideways while the NASDAQ screamed. =
The article
today only reinforces that notion. That is, some stocks are =
going up,
others
are going down, others are moving sideways. That's always the =
case, but
when
equities aren't the absolute best place to put your money for =
"sure"
gains,
the marginal dollars will flow to other investment classes and =
the rest
of
the market will ebb and flow. If nothing else, it just reminds =
us as
CANSLIM
investors that we have to pick only the best candidates and =
follow sound
buy/sell rules. I don't think there's going to be a clear =
direction for
"the
Market" as a whole for many years. We're going to have to read =
the
health of
the CANSLIM market (i.e. CANSLIM-quality stocks) and then go =
for
strength
within that.
Katherine
PS.... The term "rally" is used in many contexts, even within =
the IBD
and
Investors.com. Is it an upswing? Is it action after a =
followthru day? Is
it a
Bull? How persistent does an upswing need to be before it's no =
longer
considered "a rally"? Rally relative to what? relative to =
when?
Geez....very
confusing terminology. >>
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>well said, Katherine. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine Malm</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, 2002 12:35 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Robert,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>That was not the point of the discussion. While I am not =
going=20
to dispute the returns on precious metals, it is not the charter of this =
group=20
to discuss commodities. Your insistence on turning every discussion into =
a=20
reference to gold stocks is bordering on touting and I believe =
inappropriate for=20
list discussion.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dbluecliff@hotmail.com =
href=3D"mailto:bluecliff@hotmail.com">Robert=20
McGill</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, 2002 =
11:30=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear =
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Those are certainly incredible =
returns with=20
etf's. How do they stack up against precious =
metals?</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, 2002 =
11:25=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear=20
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Robert,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>While Small Cap Value is leading, the small cap growth, mid cap =
growth,=20
mid cap value are also very strong and posting similar results. All =
of them=20
are dwarfing large cap value and growth.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Since the most recent market bottom 9/21, here are the returns =
using=20
the ETF's as proxy:</DIV>
<DIV>Small Cap Growth: +34.78%</DIV>
<DIV>Mid Cap Growth: + 33.5%</DIV>
<DIV>Small Cap Value: + 45.35%</DIV>
<DIV>Mid Cap Value: + 34.8%</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Certainly nothing to sneeze at.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>See a chart at:</DIV>
<DIV><A=20
=
href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+ijt,ijk,iwf,ijs,ijj=
,ive">http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+ijt,ijk,iwf,ijs,ijj,i=
ve</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dbluecliff@hotmail.com =
href=3D"mailto:bluecliff@hotmail.com">Robert=20
McGill</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, =
2002 10:07=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear =
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I think that when discussing =
small cap it is=20
impt to make a distinction between growth and value. Value =
is=20
currently leading.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, =
2002 10:44=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Bear=20
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Duke, Tom, jans,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I'll bet the small to large cap migration has more to do =
with the=20
length of the Secular Bull than anything else. In the early =
stages of a=20
new Bull market, small caps (especially those with high growth=20
characteristics) lead the market. It makes intuitive sense. As =
the bull=20
wears on, those "small caps" become "big caps" as more and =
more=20
money is drawn to the stock. It's the very thing that CANSLIM is =
looking=20
for in the "I"...that is, you watch for evidence of =
institutional monies=20
moving into the stock and then just follow their lead. Once the =
stocks=20
put in their 3rd and 4th stage bases, everybody knows about them =
and=20
their market caps are quite large in comparison to where they =
were when=20
they blew out of their first stage bases. Nearly every high =
flier late=20
in '98 and '99 was a late stage base. Only those companies that =
have the=20
wherewithal to survive as a business and expand their=20
markets will set up new first stage bases. =
Non-CANSLIMers are=20
still chasing AOL, DELL, CSCO, etc., all former winners and =
all=20
large caps due to their huge runs in the 90's. CANSLIMers know=20
better....go to strength, regardless of market cap. It just so =
happens=20
small and mid-cap are leading right now and that is one more =
piece of=20
evidence for the "emerging new bull" point of view.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@bellsouth.net =
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, =
2002 9:20=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Bear=20
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Duke,<BR><BR>We don't need a new letter, we =
already=20
have "S". Of course, over the years<BR>WON has redefined this =
letter.=20
In my first edition of HTMMIS, this letter<BR>was defined as =
"S=3DSupply=20
and Demand: Small Capitalization Plus Volume<BR>Demand" and =
WON=20
indicated that you should look for a company with only a=20
few<BR>million shares outstanding. He also favored "Stocks =
that have a=20
large<BR>percentage of ownership by top management are =
generally your=20
better<BR>prospects". He also noted that the "average =
capitalization=20
of top performing<BR>listed stocks from 1970 through 1982 was =
11.8=20
million shares. The median<BR>stock exhibited 4.6 million =
shares=20
outstanding before advancing rapidly in<BR>price."<BR><BR>Of =
course, a=20
lot has changed since my copy was published in 1991, and =
I<BR>doubt=20
either WON or IBD today would champion small cap stocks, much=20
less<BR>ones this small. WON went over to the big cap camp =
over five=20
years ago, and<BR>I have seen little evidence of him adhering =
to the=20
"S" since then.<BR><BR>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR>----- Original Message -----<BR>From: "Duke =
Miller"=20
<<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com">dukemill@tampabay.rr.com</A>>=
<BR>To:=20
<<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
><BR>Sent:=20
Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:55 AM<BR>Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear=20
Rally?<BR><BR><BR>Jans:<BR><BR>Good thinking and input for the =
neighborhood. Can you say "CANSLICM?"<BR><BR>Not long ago we =
debated=20
herein the capitalization definitions. Do you<BR>suppose =
their=20
(IBD's) definitions in the IC (<=3D1bb is small; >=3D5bb =
is<BR>large; mid in between) conform to the S&P 600 =
(Small), 400=20
(mid), and<BR>500 (big)?<BR><BR>Duke<BR><BR>-----Original=20
Message-----<BR>From: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis=
sion.com</A><BR>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20
On Behalf Of <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:Spencer48@aol.com">Spencer48@aol.com</A><BR>Sent: Sunday, =
April 14, 2002 1:15 AM<BR>To: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR>Subject:=20
Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?<BR><BR><BR>Katherine and=20
Duke:<BR><BR> In today's Investor's =
Corner=20
(4/15) the column focuses on the fact<BR>that<BR>small caps =
are doing=20
well while the big caps are lagging. This=20
approach<BR>is<BR>interesting. Apparently one should =
look=20
at: The Mkts ->The Industry =
- -><BR>The<BR>Capitalization=20
(whether the stock is a big cap or a small cap makes =
a<BR>difference,=20
according to the article, regarding the probability that=20
the<BR><BR>stock will take off. If small caps are=20
currently being favored than<BR>investing in big caps is =
less=20
likely to garner a winner.)<BR>-> (and finally) The=20
Stock.<BR><BR> So it looks as if one =
should go=20
through the above checklist to find<BR>a<BR>stock that will be =
a=20
winner. (Apropos, I wonder if anyone has=20
compared<BR>the<BR>industry [I know CANSLIM uses a Strong =
Industry as=20
a necessary<BR>forerunner of<BR>a strong stock] with the =
favored=20
capitalization at the time.<BR><BR> =
For=20
instance, if XYZ industry is the industry that =
CANSLIM/WON<BR>favors=20
at<BR>the present, would the capitalization of the stock =
that is=20
in that<BR>industry<BR>make a significant difference as to its =
return,=20
ie. do the statistics<BR>confirm<BR>that not only the =
industry, but=20
also the capitalization of the stock in<BR>that<BR>industry, =
is a big=20
factor in the movement up of that stock?=20
)<BR><BR>jans<BR><BR><BR><BR>In a message dated 4/13/2002 =
12:50:16 PM=20
Eastern Daylight Time,<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">kmalm@earthlink.net</A>=20
writes:<BR><BR><< MessageHi Duke,<BR><BR> I read =
the=20
article and thought the same thing. I think the real=20
issue<BR>is<BR>that when all stocks are not in a Bull Market, =
you=20
can't talk<BR>meaningfully<BR>about "THE Market" any longer. =
For=20
example, the last couple of years of<BR>"the<BR>great Bull", =
the Dow=20
ran sideways while the NASDAQ screamed. The =
article<BR><BR>today only=20
reinforces that notion. That is, some stocks are going=20
up,<BR>others<BR>are going down, others are moving sideways. =
That's=20
always the case, but<BR>when<BR>equities aren't the absolute =
best=20
place to put your money for "sure"<BR>gains,<BR>the marginal =
dollars=20
will flow to other investment classes and the =
rest<BR>of<BR>the market=20
will ebb and flow. If nothing else, it just reminds us=20
as<BR>CANSLIM<BR>investors that we have to pick only the best=20
candidates and follow sound<BR><BR>buy/sell rules. I don't =
think=20
there's going to be a clear direction for<BR>"the<BR>Market" =
as a=20
whole for many years. We're going to have to read =
the<BR>health=20
of<BR>the CANSLIM market (i.e. CANSLIM-quality stocks) and =
then go=20
for<BR>strength<BR>within=20
that.<BR><BR> Katherine<BR><BR> PS.... The term =
"rally" is=20
used in many contexts, even within the =
IBD<BR>and<BR>Investors.com. Is=20
it an upswing? Is it action after a followthru day? Is<BR>it=20
a<BR>Bull? How persistent does an upswing need to be before =
it's no=20
longer<BR>considered "a rally"? Rally relative to what? =
relative to=20
when?<BR>Geez....very<BR>confusing terminology.=20
=
>></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE>=
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