Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Date: Tue, 16 Apr 2002 09:58:52 -0700
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"I'll bet the more "mundane" businesses will be the winning stocks for quite a while"
The 'winning businesses' as well. See QFAB as an example - http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/020415/152710_1.html . Can there be anything more mundane than Jacquard upholstery fabric???
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 12:17 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Thanks for the analysis, Patrick. Here's a link to a chart that shows Sector Rotation during economic cycles. Look toward the bottom of the page for the current location in the cycle:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html
I'm not so sure that technology itself is going to lead for a very long time. I'll bet the more "mundane" businesses will be the winning stocks for quite a while. Some of that may be because of the excessive valuations you mentioned, some of it may be related to taking out excess capacity through much of the tech sectors. It's hard for me personally, because I don't get all that excited performing due diligence on non-tech stocks..... ah well, what doesn't kill us makes us stronger.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: Patrick Wahl
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 1:44 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
On 13 Apr 2002 at 12:35, Duke Miller wrote:
> I don't want to start anything, but....since it's the weekend.
oh sure....
> So what kind of market are we in, anyway?
>
I was trying to answer this question the other night, all I could figure out is that the
market is mixed up. Here are some observations, maybe someone can put things
together.
Nasdaq selling off after rally to a lower high than the high set in January. Right now
sitting near support set about 2/22, below 50 day MA, which is sloping down.
S&P a little stronger, recent rally carried it just about back to old highs, it is
somewhat above those Feb. lows, support around 1075, also below 50 day.
Dow quite a bit stronger, the recent high surpassed the Jan. highs, recent selloff not
as severe, it's sitting on 50 day MA.
Russell 2000 at its highest level since July, made new high on Friday relative to last
8 or 9 months.
Vix is up a little bit, off the very low levels it was at, but still towards the low end of
its range (lower means too much optimism, a contrary indicator). I also notice that
the cummulative A/D line for the NYSE has been in a steady uptrend since Sept.
lows, the Nasdaq A/D line has rallied a bit, but for the last 2 months has gone
sideways to lower.
Lets see - large caps doing ok in the form of the Dow, small caps are the strongest
group as represented byt the Russell 2000 (that would be our little universe of
canslim stocks), the S&P and Nasdaq, I think you could say the real guts of the
market in terms of broad representation of industries and a large chunk of the total
market cap, are looking flat to weak.
Maybe someone can say something about which stocks should be leading if we are
at the beginning of an economic recovery, I'm not sure how to interepret this stuff,
like I said. I think valuations may still be weighing on the nasdaq, and what I am
reading says this will be a weak to moderate recovery, so earnings may not be
storng enough to allow the nasdaq to really get rolling this year.
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<DIV><FONT size=2>"I'll bet the more "mundane" businesses will be the winning
stocks for quite a while"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The 'winning businesses' as well. See QFAB as an example - <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/020415/152710_1.html">http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/020415/152710_1.html</A> .
Can there be anything more mundane than Jacquard upholstery
fabric???</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net" title=kmalm@earthlink.net>Katherine
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, April 13, 2002 12:17
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Thanks for the analysis, Patrick. Here's a link to a chart that shows
Sector Rotation during economic cycles. Look toward the bottom of the page for
the current location in the cycle:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A
href="http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html">http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I'm not so sure that technology itself is going to lead for a very long
time. I'll bet the more "mundane" businesses will be the winning stocks for
quite a while. Some of that may be because of the excessive valuations you
mentioned, some of it may be related to taking out excess capacity
through much of the tech sectors. It's hard for me personally, because I don't
get all that excited performing due diligence on non-tech stocks..... ah well,
what doesn't kill us makes us stronger.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:pjwahl@attbi.com" title=pjwahl@attbi.com>Patrick Wahl</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, April 13, 2002 1:44
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><BR><BR>On 13 Apr 2002 at 12:35, Duke Miller
wrote:<BR><BR>> I don't want to start anything, but....since it's the
weekend.<BR><BR>oh sure....<BR><BR>> So what kind of market are we in,
anyway?<BR>> <BR><BR>I was trying to answer this question the other
night, all I could figure out is that the <BR>market is mixed up. Here
are some observations, maybe someone can put things
<BR>together.<BR><BR>Nasdaq selling off after rally to a lower high than the
high set in January. Right now <BR>sitting near support set about
2/22, below 50 day MA, which is sloping down.<BR><BR>S&P a little
stronger, recent rally carried it just about back to old highs, it is
<BR>somewhat above those Feb. lows, support around 1075, also below 50
day.<BR><BR>Dow quite a bit stronger, the recent high surpassed the Jan.
highs, recent selloff not <BR>as severe, it's sitting on 50 day
MA.<BR><BR>Russell 2000 at its highest level since July, made new high on
Friday relative to last <BR>8 or 9 months.<BR><BR>Vix is up a little bit,
off the very low levels it was at, but still towards the low end of
<BR>its range (lower means too much optimism, a contrary
indicator). I also notice that <BR>the cummulative A/D line for the
NYSE has been in a steady uptrend since Sept. <BR>lows, the Nasdaq A/D line
has rallied a bit, but for the last 2 months has gone <BR>sideways to
lower.<BR><BR>Lets see - large caps doing ok in the form of the Dow, small
caps are the strongest <BR>group as represented byt the Russell 2000 (that
would be our little universe of <BR>canslim stocks), the S&P and Nasdaq,
I think you could say the real guts of the <BR>market in terms of broad
representation of industries and a large chunk of the total <BR>market cap,
are looking flat to weak.<BR><BR>Maybe someone can say something about which
stocks should be leading if we are <BR>at the beginning of an economic
recovery, I'm not sure how to interepret this stuff, <BR>like I
said. I think valuations may still be weighing on the nasdaq,
and what I am <BR>reading says this will be a weak to moderate recovery, so
earnings may not be <BR>storng enough to allow the nasdaq to really
get rolling this year.<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A
href="mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In the
email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do
not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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