Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Date: Tue, 16 Apr 2002 10:11:21 -0700
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"I'd like a little rationality"
I would argue that over the last couple of months, we have seen the most 'rational' market in quite a while. No panic-induced broad-based selloffs, and no extended, buy every-tech manic short squeeze runs. We have seen a dramatic divergence across tech (check out semi gear makers AMAT, and NVLS charts and compare to telco gear makers LU and NT) that has been rational with regards to direction of demand for the products. The companies with the worst corporate performance are at/below 9/21 valuations, and the companies with relatively strong corporate performance are 300%+ above 9/21 valuations. Companies with strong EPS and revenue growth are being rewarded. And the most rational part, IMHO, is that the bulk of companies 'in the middle' are drifiting aimlessly, as they should be.
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Mona Guarino
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 12:58 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Ira, thanks for the Twinkies metaphor. I, for one, have not recovered nearly enough from the stomach ache from over eating the Twinkies to be much tempted by tech stocks.
It's less that I want a bull market at this point and more that I'd like a little rationality. Maybe this is simply inexperience and there is nothing different about the current market, but it seems that bad news, good news, or no news can all bring down a stock; hard to have much confidence in your own due diligence when you're new at it and you can't seem to trust pundits, accountants, or analysists or even the #s themselves for much of anything.
-- Mona
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Ira Post
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:43 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Mona and Katherine,
Very good points on market direction. We'd all love to have another bull market, but we haven't sufficiently absorbed the last one. P/E's are still very high. I think a sideways move for a number of years is a very likely transition to whatever comes next. I also agree that tech stocks will recover somewhat, but not lead the market like they did in the nineties.
Tech stocks are often like Hostess Twinkies. They're so attractive, but usually lack substance. One has to be very careful to use good due diligence on the financials on tech stocks like on every other stock.
Ira
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<DIV><FONT size=2>"I'd like a little rationality"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I would argue that over the last couple of months, we have
seen the most 'rational' market in quite a while. No panic-induced broad-based
selloffs, and no extended, buy every-tech manic short squeeze runs. We have seen
a dramatic divergence across tech (check out semi gear makers AMAT, and NVLS
charts and compare to telco gear makers LU and NT) that has been rational with
regards to direction of demand for the products. The companies with the worst
corporate performance are at/below 9/21 valuations, and the companies with
relatively strong corporate performance are 300%+ above 9/21 valuations.
Companies with strong EPS and revenue growth are being rewarded. And the most
rational part, IMHO, is that the bulk of companies 'in the middle' are drifiting
aimlessly, as they should be.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:webmaster@design21.com" title=webmaster@design21.com>Mona
Guarino</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, 2002 12:58
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=780334619-14042002>Ira,
thanks for the Twinkies metaphor. I, for one, have not recovered nearly enough
from the stomach ache from over eating the Twinkies to be much tempted by tech
stocks.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=780334619-14042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=780334619-14042002>It's
less that I want a bull market at this point and more that I'd like a little
rationality. Maybe this is simply inexperience and there is nothing different
about the current market, but it seems that bad news, good news, or no
news can all bring down a stock; hard to have much confidence in your own
due diligence when you're new at it and you can't seem to trust pundits,
accountants, or analysists or even the #s themselves for much of
anything.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=780334619-14042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=780334619-14042002>--
Mona</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV align=left class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Ira
Post<BR><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:43 AM<BR><B>To:</B>
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear
Rally?<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Mona and Katherine,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Very good points on market direction.
We'd all love to have another bull market, but we haven't sufficiently
absorbed the last one. P/E's are still very high. I think a
sideways move for a number of years is a very likely transition to whatever
comes next. I also agree that tech stocks will recover somewhat, but
not lead the market like they did in the nineties.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Tech stocks are often like Hostess
Twinkies. They're so attractive, but usually lack substance. One
has to be very careful to use good due diligence on the financials on tech
stocks like on every other stock.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial
size=2>Ira</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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Next Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] Validity of Earnings Reports Ian
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