Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Ira Post" <ip108@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Date: Tue, 16 Apr 2002 15:20:47 -0400
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Ian, that's a good point regarding this kind of market actually being =
somewhat rational compared to the wholesale advances of the nineties and =
the wholesale declines of 2000 and 2001. This market rewards you for =
picking good stocks and avoiding weak ones. =20
I'm learning alot about technical analysis and cup and handle =
formations. But I always look first - very closely - at the companies =
fundamentals to make sure I'm buying a solid company with strong =
earnings growth at a reasonable valuation. That way, even if I don't =
hit it at the right moment, it will go up sometime soon.
Ira
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, April 16, 2002 1:11 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
"I'd like a little rationality"
I would argue that over the last couple of months, we have seen the =
most 'rational' market in quite a while. No panic-induced broad-based =
selloffs, and no extended, buy every-tech manic short squeeze runs. We =
have seen a dramatic divergence across tech (check out semi gear makers =
AMAT, and NVLS charts and compare to telco gear makers LU and NT) that =
has been rational with regards to direction of demand for the products. =
The companies with the worst corporate performance are at/below 9/21 =
valuations, and the companies with relatively strong corporate =
performance are 300%+ above 9/21 valuations. Companies with strong EPS =
and revenue growth are being rewarded. And the most rational part, IMHO, =
is that the bulk of companies 'in the middle' are drifiting aimlessly, =
as they should be.
Ian
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Mona Guarino=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 12:58 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Ira, thanks for the Twinkies metaphor. I, for one, have not =
recovered nearly enough from the stomach ache from over eating the =
Twinkies to be much tempted by tech stocks.
It's less that I want a bull market at this point and more that I'd =
like a little rationality. Maybe this is simply inexperience and there =
is nothing different about the current market, but it seems that bad =
news, good news, or no news can all bring down a stock; hard to have =
much confidence in your own due diligence when you're new at it and you =
can't seem to trust pundits, accountants, or analysists or even the #s =
themselves for much of anything.
-- Mona
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Ira Post
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:43 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Mona and Katherine,
Very good points on market direction. We'd all love to have =
another bull market, but we haven't sufficiently absorbed the last one. =
P/E's are still very high. I think a sideways move for a number of =
years is a very likely transition to whatever comes next. I also agree =
that tech stocks will recover somewhat, but not lead the market like =
they did in the nineties.
Tech stocks are often like Hostess Twinkies. They're so =
attractive, but usually lack substance. One has to be very careful to =
use good due diligence on the financials on tech stocks like on every =
other stock.
Ira
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ian, that's a good point regarding this =
kind of=20
market actually being somewhat rational compared to the wholesale =
advances of=20
the nineties and the wholesale declines of 2000 and 2001. This =
market=20
rewards you for picking good stocks and avoiding weak ones. =
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I'm learning alot about technical =
analysis and cup=20
and handle formations. But I always look first - very closely - at =
the=20
companies fundamentals to make sure I'm buying a solid company with =
strong=20
earnings growth at a reasonable valuation. That way, even if I =
don't hit=20
it at the right moment, it will go up sometime soon.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ira</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 16, 2002 =
1:11=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear =
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>"I'd like a little rationality"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I would argue that over the last couple of months, =
we have=20
seen the most 'rational' market in quite a while. No panic-induced =
broad-based=20
selloffs, and no extended, buy every-tech manic short squeeze runs. We =
have=20
seen a dramatic divergence across tech (check out semi gear makers =
AMAT, and=20
NVLS charts and compare to telco gear makers LU and NT) that has been =
rational=20
with regards to direction of demand for the products. The companies =
with the=20
worst corporate performance are at/below 9/21 valuations, and the =
companies=20
with relatively strong corporate performance are 300%+ above 9/21 =
valuations.=20
Companies with strong EPS and revenue growth are being rewarded. And =
the most=20
rational part, IMHO, is that the bulk of companies 'in the middle' are =
drifiting aimlessly, as they should be.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dwebmaster@design21.com =
href=3D"mailto:webmaster@design21.com">Mona=20
Guarino</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, 2002 =
12:58=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] Bear=20
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D780334619-14042002>Ira, thanks for the Twinkies metaphor. I, =
for one,=20
have not recovered nearly enough from the stomach ache from over =
eating the=20
Twinkies to be much tempted by tech stocks.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D780334619-14042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D780334619-14042002>It's less that I want a bull market at =
this point=20
and more that I'd like a little rationality. Maybe this is simply=20
inexperience and there is nothing different about the current =
market, but it=20
seems that bad news, good news, or no news can all bring down a =
stock;=20
hard to have much confidence in your own due diligence when you're =
new at it=20
and you can't seem to trust pundits, accountants, or analysists or =
even the=20
#s themselves for much of anything.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D780334619-14042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D780334619-14042002>--=20
Mona</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff =
2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Ira=20
Post<BR><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:43 AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear=20
Rally?<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Mona and Katherine,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Very good points on market =
direction. =20
We'd all love to have another bull market, but we haven't =
sufficiently=20
absorbed the last one. P/E's are still very high. I =
think a=20
sideways move for a number of years is a very likely transition to =
whatever comes next. I also agree that tech stocks will =
recover=20
somewhat, but not lead the market like they did in the=20
nineties.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Tech stocks are often like =
Hostess=20
Twinkies. They're so attractive, but usually lack =
substance. =20
One has to be very careful to use good due diligence on the =
financials on=20
tech stocks like on every other stock.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2>Ira</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></=
HTML>
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Previous Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] Validity of Earnings Reports Ian
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