Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Date: Tue, 16 Apr 2002 15:29:41 -0400
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AMEN! AMEN!
Duke
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Ira Post
Sent: Tuesday, April 16, 2002 3:21 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Ian, that's a good point regarding this kind of market actually being
somewhat rational compared to the wholesale advances of the nineties and
the wholesale declines of 2000 and 2001. This market rewards you for
picking good stocks and avoiding weak ones.
I'm learning alot about technical analysis and cup and handle
formations. But I always look first - very closely - at the companies
fundamentals to make sure I'm buying a solid company with strong
earnings growth at a reasonable valuation. That way, even if I don't
hit it at the right moment, it will go up sometime soon.
Ira
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Ian <mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Tuesday, April 16, 2002 1:11 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
"I'd like a little rationality"
I would argue that over the last couple of months, we have seen the most
'rational' market in quite a while. No panic-induced broad-based
selloffs, and no extended, buy every-tech manic short squeeze runs. We
have seen a dramatic divergence across tech (check out semi gear makers
AMAT, and NVLS charts and compare to telco gear makers LU and NT) that
has been rational with regards to direction of demand for the products.
The companies with the worst corporate performance are at/below 9/21
valuations, and the companies with relatively strong corporate
performance are 300%+ above 9/21 valuations. Companies with strong EPS
and revenue growth are being rewarded. And the most rational part, IMHO,
is that the bulk of companies 'in the middle' are drifiting aimlessly,
as they should be.
Ian
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Mona <mailto:webmaster@design21.com> Guarino
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 12:58 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Ira, thanks for the Twinkies metaphor. I, for one, have not recovered
nearly enough from the stomach ache from over eating the Twinkies to be
much tempted by tech stocks.
It's less that I want a bull market at this point and more that I'd like
a little rationality. Maybe this is simply inexperience and there is
nothing different about the current market, but it seems that bad news,
good news, or no news can all bring down a stock; hard to have much
confidence in your own due diligence when you're new at it and you can't
seem to trust pundits, accountants, or analysists or even the #s
themselves for much of anything.
- -- Mona
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Ira Post
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:43 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Mona and Katherine,
Very good points on market direction. We'd all love to have another
bull market, but we haven't sufficiently absorbed the last one. P/E's
are still very high. I think a sideways move for a number of years is a
very likely transition to whatever comes next. I also agree that tech
stocks will recover somewhat, but not lead the market like they did in
the nineties.
Tech stocks are often like Hostess Twinkies. They're so attractive, but
usually lack substance. One has to be very careful to use good due
diligence on the financials on tech stocks like on every other stock.
Ira
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D107312919-16042002><FONT face=3DArial>AMEN! =20
AMEN!</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D107312919-16042002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D107312919-16042002><FONT =
face=3DArial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20
<B>On Behalf Of </B>Ira Post<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 16, 2002 =
3:21=20
PM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
Bear Rally?<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ian, that's a good point regarding =
this kind of=20
market actually being somewhat rational compared to the wholesale =
advances of=20
the nineties and the wholesale declines of 2000 and 2001. This =
market=20
rewards you for picking good stocks and avoiding weak ones. =20
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I'm learning alot about technical =
analysis and=20
cup and handle formations. But I always look first - very =
closely - at=20
the companies fundamentals to make sure I'm buying a solid company =
with strong=20
earnings growth at a reasonable valuation. That way, even if I =
don't hit=20
it at the right moment, it will go up sometime soon.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ira</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 16, 2002 =
1:11=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear=20
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>"I'd like a little rationality"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I would argue that over the last couple of =
months, we have=20
seen the most 'rational' market in quite a while. No panic-induced=20
broad-based selloffs, and no extended, buy every-tech manic short =
squeeze=20
runs. We have seen a dramatic divergence across tech (check out semi =
gear=20
makers AMAT, and NVLS charts and compare to telco gear makers LU and =
NT)=20
that has been rational with regards to direction of demand for the =
products.=20
The companies with the worst corporate performance are at/below 9/21 =
valuations, and the companies with relatively strong corporate =
performance=20
are 300%+ above 9/21 valuations. Companies with strong EPS and =
revenue=20
growth are being rewarded. And the most rational part, IMHO, is that =
the=20
bulk of companies 'in the middle' are drifiting aimlessly, as they =
should=20
be.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dwebmaster@design21.com =
href=3D"mailto:webmaster@design21.com">Mona=20
Guarino</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, =
2002 12:58=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] Bear =
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D780334619-14042002>Ira, thanks for the Twinkies metaphor. =
I, for=20
one, have not recovered nearly enough from the stomach ache from =
over=20
eating the Twinkies to be much tempted by tech =
stocks.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D780334619-14042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D780334619-14042002>It's less that I want a bull market at =
this point=20
and more that I'd like a little rationality. Maybe this is simply=20
inexperience and there is nothing different about the current =
market, but=20
it seems that bad news, good news, or no news can all bring =
down a=20
stock; hard to have much confidence in your own due diligence when =
you're=20
new at it and you can't seem to trust pundits, accountants, or =
analysists=20
or even the #s themselves for much of =
anything.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D780334619-14042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D780334619-14042002>-- Mona</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff =
2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Ira =
Post<BR><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:43 =
AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear =
Rally?<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Mona and =
Katherine,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Very good points on market =
direction. =20
We'd all love to have another bull market, but we haven't =
sufficiently=20
absorbed the last one. P/E's are still very high. I =
think a=20
sideways move for a number of years is a very likely transition =
to=20
whatever comes next. I also agree that tech stocks will =
recover=20
somewhat, but not lead the market like they did in the=20
nineties.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Tech stocks are often like =
Hostess=20
Twinkies. They're so attractive, but usually lack =
substance. =20
One has to be very careful to use good due diligence on the =
financials=20
on tech stocks like on every other stock.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial=20
=
size=3D2>Ira</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQU=
OTE></BODY></HTML>
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