Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Ira Post" <ip108@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Date: Wed, 17 Apr 2002 05:33:41 -0400
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Tom, you're right that it's good to look at earnings forecasts too. And =
I do look at them and take them into account. But, while I no longer =
completely trust earnings reports, I trust them more than earnings =
forecasts. Sometimes analysts are plugging companies that their company =
does business with and sometimes they're just plain wrong.
Ira
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, April 17, 2002 1:27 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Ira, just keep in mind when doing the valuation evaluation, that =
current price is based on future expectations / valuations, not what it =
did for the past 12 months.
Focus on forecasts, and projected PE ratios, and projected revenues.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ira Post=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, April 16, 2002 3:20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Ian, that's a good point regarding this kind of market actually being =
somewhat rational compared to the wholesale advances of the nineties and =
the wholesale declines of 2000 and 2001. This market rewards you for =
picking good stocks and avoiding weak ones. =20
I'm learning alot about technical analysis and cup and handle =
formations. But I always look first - very closely - at the companies =
fundamentals to make sure I'm buying a solid company with strong =
earnings growth at a reasonable valuation. That way, even if I don't =
hit it at the right moment, it will go up sometime soon.
Ira
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, April 16, 2002 1:11 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
"I'd like a little rationality"
I would argue that over the last couple of months, we have seen the =
most 'rational' market in quite a while. No panic-induced broad-based =
selloffs, and no extended, buy every-tech manic short squeeze runs. We =
have seen a dramatic divergence across tech (check out semi gear makers =
AMAT, and NVLS charts and compare to telco gear makers LU and NT) that =
has been rational with regards to direction of demand for the products. =
The companies with the worst corporate performance are at/below 9/21 =
valuations, and the companies with relatively strong corporate =
performance are 300%+ above 9/21 valuations. Companies with strong EPS =
and revenue growth are being rewarded. And the most rational part, IMHO, =
is that the bulk of companies 'in the middle' are drifiting aimlessly, =
as they should be.
Ian
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Mona Guarino=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 12:58 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Ira, thanks for the Twinkies metaphor. I, for one, have not =
recovered nearly enough from the stomach ache from over eating the =
Twinkies to be much tempted by tech stocks.
It's less that I want a bull market at this point and more that =
I'd like a little rationality. Maybe this is simply inexperience and =
there is nothing different about the current market, but it seems that =
bad news, good news, or no news can all bring down a stock; hard to have =
much confidence in your own due diligence when you're new at it and you =
can't seem to trust pundits, accountants, or analysists or even the #s =
themselves for much of anything.
-- Mona
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Ira Post
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:43 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?
Mona and Katherine,
Very good points on market direction. We'd all love to have =
another bull market, but we haven't sufficiently absorbed the last one. =
P/E's are still very high. I think a sideways move for a number of =
years is a very likely transition to whatever comes next. I also agree =
that tech stocks will recover somewhat, but not lead the market like =
they did in the nineties.
Tech stocks are often like Hostess Twinkies. They're so =
attractive, but usually lack substance. One has to be very careful to =
use good due diligence on the financials on tech stocks like on every =
other stock.
Ira
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<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Tom, you're right that it's good to =
look at=20
earnings forecasts too. And I do look at them and take them into=20
account. But, while I no longer completely trust earnings reports, =
I trust=20
them more than earnings forecasts. Sometimes analysts are plugging =
companies that their company does business with and sometimes they're =
just plain=20
wrong.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ira</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@bellsouth.net =
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, April 17, 2002 =
1:27=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear =
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Ira, just keep in mind when doing the =
valuation=20
evaluation, that current price is based on future expectations / =
valuations,=20
not what it did for the past 12 months.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Focus on forecasts, and projected PE ratios, =
and=20
projected revenues.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Dip108@yahoo.com href=3D"mailto:ip108@yahoo.com">Ira Post</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 16, 2002 3:20 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear Rally?</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ian, that's a good point regarding =
this kind of=20
market actually being somewhat rational compared to the wholesale =
advances of=20
the nineties and the wholesale declines of 2000 and 2001. This =
market=20
rewards you for picking good stocks and avoiding weak ones. =20
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I'm learning alot about technical =
analysis and=20
cup and handle formations. But I always look first - very =
closely - at=20
the companies fundamentals to make sure I'm buying a solid company =
with strong=20
earnings growth at a reasonable valuation. That way, even if I =
don't hit=20
it at the right moment, it will go up sometime soon.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ira</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 16, 2002 =
1:11=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear=20
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>"I'd like a little rationality"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I would argue that over the last couple of =
months, we have=20
seen the most 'rational' market in quite a while. No panic-induced=20
broad-based selloffs, and no extended, buy every-tech manic short =
squeeze=20
runs. We have seen a dramatic divergence across tech (check out semi =
gear=20
makers AMAT, and NVLS charts and compare to telco gear makers LU and =
NT)=20
that has been rational with regards to direction of demand for the =
products.=20
The companies with the worst corporate performance are at/below 9/21 =
valuations, and the companies with relatively strong corporate =
performance=20
are 300%+ above 9/21 valuations. Companies with strong EPS and =
revenue=20
growth are being rewarded. And the most rational part, IMHO, is that =
the=20
bulk of companies 'in the middle' are drifiting aimlessly, as they =
should=20
be.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dwebmaster@design21.com =
href=3D"mailto:webmaster@design21.com">Mona=20
Guarino</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, =
2002 12:58=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] Bear =
Rally?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D780334619-14042002>Ira, thanks for the Twinkies metaphor. =
I, for=20
one, have not recovered nearly enough from the stomach ache from =
over=20
eating the Twinkies to be much tempted by tech =
stocks.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D780334619-14042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D780334619-14042002>It's less that I want a bull market at =
this point=20
and more that I'd like a little rationality. Maybe this is simply=20
inexperience and there is nothing different about the current =
market, but=20
it seems that bad news, good news, or no news can all bring =
down a=20
stock; hard to have much confidence in your own due diligence when =
you're=20
new at it and you can't seem to trust pundits, accountants, or =
analysists=20
or even the #s themselves for much of =
anything.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D780334619-14042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D780334619-14042002>-- Mona</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff =
2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Ira =
Post<BR><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:43 =
AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bear =
Rally?<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Mona and =
Katherine,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Very good points on market =
direction. =20
We'd all love to have another bull market, but we haven't =
sufficiently=20
absorbed the last one. P/E's are still very high. I =
think a=20
sideways move for a number of years is a very likely transition =
to=20
whatever comes next. I also agree that tech stocks will =
recover=20
somewhat, but not lead the market like they did in the=20
nineties.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Tech stocks are often like =
Hostess=20
Twinkies. They're so attractive, but usually lack =
substance. =20
One has to be very careful to use good due diligence on the =
financials=20
on tech stocks like on every other stock.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial=20
=
size=3D2>Ira</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQU=
OTE></BODY></HTML>
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